By Shobhana Chandra - Dec 2, 2011 12:01 PM GMT+0700
The pace of hiring in November probably failed to reduce unemployment in the U.S., showing employers are concerned the world’s largest economy may cool, economists said before a report today.
Payrolls climbed by 125,000 workers after an 80,000 increase in October, according to the median forecast of 90 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The jobless rate may have held at 9 percent.
Companies like DirecTV (DTV) have said they will keep a tight rein on spending and employment in 2012, reflecting concern over the outlook for demand, Europe’s debt crisis and political wrangling over the U.S. deficit. The scant number of jobs will limit wage gains and deprive consumers of the means to boost spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the economy.
“We’re seeing job gains that are positive though not impressively so,” said Guy LeBas, chief fixed-income strategist at Janney Montgomery Scott LLC in Philadelphia. “Consumer and business demand is very uncertain. Hiring managers need proof of sales before they’re willing to add workers.”
The Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from increases of 75,000 to 175,000.
The projected gain in payrolls would bring the average for July through November to 119,000, compared with 131,000 in the first six months of the year.
The jobless rate has exceeded 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch of such levels of unemployment since monthly records began in 1948.
Fed Forecasts
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and his colleagues last month cut economic growth forecasts for 2012 and said unemployment will average 8.5 percent to 8.7 percent in the final three months of next year, up from a prior range of 7.8 percent to 8.2 percent.
Growth in the U.S. and other advanced economies “has been proceeding too slowly to provide jobs for millions of unemployed people,” Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen said in a Nov. 29 speech in San Francisco. She called for “urgent” international action to combat a “dearth” of global demand.
Six central banks led by the Fed acted on Nov. 30 to make more funds available to lenders to preserve the global expansion. The move came after European leaders said they failed to boost the region’s bailout fund as much as planned, fueling concern about a possible breakup of the euro bloc.
Shares Rally
Stocks dropped yesterday after the action by the central banks helped cap the biggest three-day rally in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) since March 2009. The gauge fell 0.2 percent after climbing 7.6 percent from Nov. 28 through Nov. 30.
The crisis in Europe and presidential election in the U.S. make it difficult to predict the level of economic expansion, causing DirecTV to “slow our growth rate,” Michael White, chief executive officer of the largest U.S. satellite-TV provider, said in an interview last week.
“We’re tightening our belts in terms of spending,” White said in the Nov. 21 interview. “We’ll cut back on overhead, hiring and programming.”
The payrolls report may also show private employment, which excludes government jobs, climbed 150,000 after an October gain of 104,000, economists forecast.
Employment may have gotten a boost from holiday hiring. Macy’s Inc. (M), the second-biggest U.S. department-store chain, increased mostly part-time staff by 4 percent for the November- December shopping season. See’s Candies Inc., a chocolate maker owned by Berkshire Hathaway Inc., said it would add 5,500 mostly temporary workers.
Payrolls may pick up as more businesses benefit from increased demand. Boeing Co. (BA), the largest U.S. aircraft maker, is hiring about 100 machinists a week as it boosts production by about 60 percent over three years to whittle down a backlog that now stretches to almost 4,000 aircraft.
Manufacturing, one area of the economy that continues to grow, may have added 9,000 workers, the most in four months, according to the survey median.
Bloomberg Survey ============================================================== Nonfarm Private Manu Unemploy Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls Rate ,000’s ,000’s ,000’s % ============================================================== Date of Release 12/02 12/02 12/02 12/02 Observation Period Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov. -------------------------------------------------------------- Median 125 150 9 9.0% Average 126 150 8 9.0% High Forecast 175 190 15 9.1% Low Forecast 75 110 0 8.9% Number of Participants 90 51 22 84 Previous 80 104 5 9.0% -------------------------------------------------------------- 4CAST 140 160 --- 9.0% ABN Amro 120 135 --- 9.0% Action Economics 130 150 5 9.0% Aletti Gestielle 125 150 --- 9.0% Ameriprise Financial 145 165 8 9.0% Banca Aletti 123 146 6 9.0% Banesto 115 --- --- --- Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi 130 150 --- 8.9% Bantleon Bank AG 130 --- --- 9.0% Barclays Capital 125 150 --- 8.9% Bayerische Landesbank 110 --- --- 9.0% BBVA 110 130 7 9.0% BMO Capital Markets 100 --- --- 9.1% BNP Paribas 150 175 --- 9.0% BofA Merrill Lynch 110 130 --- 9.0% Briefing.com 75 110 --- 9.0% Capital Economics 140 --- 9 --- CIBC World Markets 110 --- --- 9.0% Citi 130 150 9 --- ClearView Economics 90 115 10 9.1% Comerica 114 --- --- --- Commerzbank AG 125 --- --- 9.0% Credit Agricole CIB 175 --- --- 9.0% Credit Suisse 170 190 --- 9.0% Daiwa Securities America 110 --- --- --- DekaBank 140 --- --- 9.0% Desjardins Group 150 --- --- 9.0% Deutsche Bank Securities 150 175 --- 9.0% Deutsche Postbank AG 150 --- --- 9.0% DZ Bank 85 --- --- 9.0% Exane 100 --- --- 9.0% Fact & Opinion Economics 160 180 --- 8.9% First Trust Advisors 100 125 5 9.0% Goldman, Sachs & Co. 100 --- --- 9.0% Helaba 120 --- --- 9.0% High Frequency Economics 125 150 --- 9.0% HSBC Markets 165 185 --- 9.0% Hugh Johnson Advisors 130 150 10 9.0% IDEAglobal 125 150 10 9.0% IHS Global Insight 125 150 --- 9.0% Informa Global Markets 135 --- 0 9.0% ING Financial Markets 130 160 10 9.0% Insight Economics 100 --- --- 9.1% Intesa-SanPaulo 125 145 --- 9.0% Iur Capital 105 --- --- 8.9% J.P. Morgan Chase 130 150 10 9.0% Janney Montgomery Scott 132 152 10 9.0% Jefferies & Co. 130 145 10 8.9% Landesbank Berlin 100 --- --- 9.1% Landesbank BW 130 --- --- 9.0% Laurentian Bank 160 180 --- 9.0% Maria Fiorini Ramirez 150 175 --- 9.0% Market Securities 145 --- --- 8.9% MET Capital Advisors 110 --- --- 9.0% Mizuho Securities 125 --- --- 9.1% Moody’s Analytics 105 120 10 9.0% Morgan Keegan & Co. 132 --- --- 9.0% Morgan Stanley & Co. 120 --- --- 9.0% National Bank Financial 150 --- --- 9.0% Natixis 150 --- --- 9.0% Newedge 130 145 --- --- Nomura Securities 140 150 15 9.0% Nord/LB 90 120 5 9.0% OSK Group/DMG 100 --- --- 9.1% Paragon Research 175 --- --- 8.9% Parthenon Group 149 --- --- 9.0% Pierpont Securities 110 135 --- 9.0% PineBridge Investments 125 155 --- 8.9% PNC Bank 110 135 --- 9.0% Prestige Economics 100 130 --- 9.0% Raiffeisenbank International 135 160 --- 9.0% Raymond James 110 135 --- 9.0% RBC Capital Markets 100 120 --- 9.0% RBS Securities 125 --- --- 9.0% Schneider Foreign Exchange 120 145 9 9.0% Scotia Capital 100 --- --- 9.0% SMBC Nikko Securities 150 180 --- 8.9% Societe Generale 170 190 --- 9.1% Standard Chartered 115 140 --- 9.0% State Street Global Markets 146 170 8 9.0% Stone & McCarthy Research 130 145 6 9.0% TD Securities 155 175 --- 9.0% UBS 150 175 --- 9.0% UniCredit Research 110 --- --- 9.0% Union Investment 120 --- --- 9.0% University of Maryland 112 132 5 9.1% Wells Fargo & Co. 133 --- --- 9.0% WestLB AG 110 --- --- 9.0% Westpac Banking Co. 120 --- --- 9.1% Wrightson ICAP 100 130 --- 9.0% ==============================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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