By Timothy R. Homan - Jan 6, 2012 12:01 PM GMT+0700
Hiring in the U.S. probably accelerated in December for a second month, pointing to a strengthening labor market heading into 2012, economists said before a report this week.
Payrolls climbed by 155,000 workers after rising 120,000 the previous month, according to the median forecast of 84 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The unemployment rate rose after dropping in November to the lowest level in more than two years, the report may also show.
Sustained payroll gains are needed to chip away at joblessness and support household spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of the world’s largest economy. At the same time, the financial crisis in Europe and political stalemate over ways to pare the U.S. budget deficit may be prompting companies to hold back amid concern the expansion will slow.
“It’s still moderate employment growth at a respectable pace,” said Sean Incremona, a senior economist at 4cast Inc. in New York. “We still do see a lot of uncertainty in the background that will probably be restraining hiring.”
The Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Bloomberg survey estimates ranged from increases of 80,000 to 220,000.
The jobless rate climbed to 8.7 percent in December from 8.6 percent the prior month, which was the lowest since March 2009, according to the survey median.
Today’s report will also include benchmark revisions to the household survey, which is used to calculate the monthly unemployment rate. Data for the past five years are under review.
Little Headway
Employers added 1.45 million workers last year through November. The increase shows the economy has made little headway in recovering the 8.75 million jobs lost as a result of the recession that ended in June 2009.
The projected payroll gain would bring the average for July through December to 136,000, compared with 131,000 in the first six months of the year.
The employment report may also show private employment, which excludes government jobs, climbed 178,000 after a 140,000 gain in November.
“Sales are robust, merchandise margins are strong, operating margins are growing,” Alexander Smith, chief executive officer of Fort Worth, Texas-based Pier 1 Imports Inc. (PIR), said on a Dec. 15 conference call with analysts. “There’s going to be a little more hiring in the first part of the year without a doubt.”
Holiday Spending
Other companies saw increased demand last month during the holiday shopping season. Same-store sales at U.S. retailers excluding Wal-Mart Stores Inc. rose 3.5 percent in December from a year earlier, according to figures yesterday from the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Recent reports showing faster manufacturing, fewer Americans filing jobless claims, less household pessimism and stabilization in housing have helped spur share prices. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has gained 7.4 percent since a recent low on Nov. 28.
In the final three months of 2011, “clear signs emerged that U.S. consumers are more confident and that other underpinnings of our economy are either stable or slowly improving,” Don Johnson, vice president of U.S. sales for General Motors Co., said on a Jan. 4 conference call.
Faster job gains than those generated in 2011 may be needed to reduce unemployment. That’s one reason policy makers remain concerned.
“While indicators point to some improvement in overall labor market conditions, the unemployment rate remains elevated,” Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke and other members of the Federal Open Market Committee said in a statement at the conclusion of a meeting last month in Washington.
Bloomberg Survey
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Nonfarm Private Manu Unemploy
Payrolls Payrolls Payrolls Rate
,000’s ,000’s ,000’s %
==============================================================
Date of Release 01/06 01/06 01/06 01/06
Observation Period Dec. Dec. Dec. Dec.
--------------------------------------------------------------
Median 155 178 6 8.7%
Average 158 177 9 8.7%
High Forecast 220 230 20 8.8%
Low Forecast 80 130 5 8.5%
Number of Participants 84 50 16 81
Previous 120 140 2 8.6%
--------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. 160 175 --- 8.5%
ABN Amro Inc. 150 170 --- 8.6%
Action Economics 150 170 5 8.7%
Aletti Gestielle 135 155 --- 8.7%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 170 185 5 8.7%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 160 180 --- 8.5%
Bantleon Bank AG 140 --- --- 8.6%
Barclays Capital 140 160 --- 8.6%
Bayerische Landesbank 160 --- --- 8.6%
BBVA 155 165 --- 8.6%
BMO Capital Markets 150 --- --- 8.7%
BNP Paribas 130 --- --- 8.6%
BofA Merrill Lynch Research 175 190 --- 8.7%
Briefing.com 165 200 --- 8.7%
Capital Economics 150 --- --- 8.7%
CIBC World Markets 135 --- --- 8.6%
Citi 150 --- --- 8.8%
ClearView Economics 130 150 5 8.7%
Commerzbank AG 160 --- --- 8.7%
Credit Agricole CIB 150 --- --- 8.7%
Credit Suisse 150 170 --- 8.8%
Daiwa Securities America 130 145 --- 8.8%
Danske Bank 120 130 --- 8.7%
DekaBank 160 --- --- 8.7%
Desjardins Group 175 --- --- 8.8%
Deutsche Bank Securities 155 175 --- 8.6%
Deutsche Postbank AG 150 --- --- 8.7%
Exane 150 --- --- 8.7%
Fact & Opinion Economics 180 200 --- 8.6%
First Trust Advisors 190 225 20 8.6%
FTN Financial 170 190 --- ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 175 --- --- 8.7%
Helaba 80 --- --- 8.8%
High Frequency Economics 175 150 --- 8.7%
HSBC Markets 180 200 --- 8.7%
Hugh Johnson Advisors 130 150 10 8.8%
IDEAglobal 175 190 10 8.6%
IHS Global Insight 150 --- --- 8.7%
Informa Global Markets 145 --- 15 8.7%
ING Financial Markets 180 190 15 8.7%
Insight Economics 200 --- --- 8.8%
Intesa-SanPaulo 150 --- --- 8.7%
J.P. Morgan Chase 185 200 5 8.7%
Janney Montgomery Scott 136 156 5 8.8%
Jefferies & Co. 150 165 --- 8.5%
JH Cohn 160 175 --- ---
Landesbank Berlin 125 --- --- 8.8%
Laurentian Bank Securities 200 220 --- 8.8%
LCA Consultores 170 --- --- ---
Maria Fiorini Ramirez 200 225 --- 8.7%
Market Securities 182 --- --- 8.5%
MET Capital Advisors 140 --- --- 8.7%
Mizuho Securities 125 --- --- 8.7%
Moody’s Analytics 160 175 5 8.7%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 153 --- --- 8.7%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 170 --- --- 8.6%
National Bank Financial 150 --- --- 8.7%
Natixis 200 --- --- 8.6%
Nomura Securities Intl. 175 190 10 8.6%
Nord/LB 130 140 5 8.7%
OSK Group/DMG 155 --- --- 8.7%
O’Sullivan 125 145 --- 8.7%
Paragon Research 220 --- --- 8.8%
Parthenon Group 172 --- --- 8.7%
Pierpont Securities LLC 135 --- --- 8.7%
PineBridge Investments 175 195 --- 8.6%
PNC Bank 200 215 --- 8.7%
Prestige Economics 165 185 --- 8.8%
Raiffeisenbank International 165 190 --- 8.6%
Raymond James 145 165 --- 8.7%
RBC Capital Markets 120 137 --- 8.8%
RBS Securities Inc. 130 --- --- 8.7%
Scotia Capital 180 190 --- 8.7%
SMBC Nikko Securities 200 230 --- 8.8%
Societe Generale 140 160 --- 8.5%
Standard Chartered 210 185 --- 8.7%
State Street Global Markets 179 196 13 8.7%
Stone & McCarthy Research 130 140 6 8.8%
TD Securities 170 190 --- 8.8%
UBS 125 150 --- 8.6%
University of Maryland 140 160 5 8.7%
Wells Fargo & Co. 160 180 --- 8.7%
Westpac Banking Co. 150 --- --- 8.8%
Wrightson ICAP 170 190 --- 8.7%
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To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Christopher Wellisz in Washington at cwellisz@bloomberg.net
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