By Lu Wang - Jan 27, 2012 12:00 AM GMT+0700
The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s best January rally since 1997 has pushed a pair of momentum and sentiment gauges to levels seen only 6 percent of the time since 1993, a sign the market is due for a pullback, BTIG LLC said.
The benchmark index’s 14-day relative strength index, which measures the degree that gains and losses outpace each other, rose above 70 yesterday for the first time since Feb. 18, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Some technical analysts consider RSI readings above 70 a sign that stocks have risen too far, too fast. The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), a gauge known as the VIX, fell below 20 for the first time since July on Jan. 19.
The last time RSI exceeded 70 while the VIX stayed below 20, 11 months ago, the S&P 500 reached a 32-month high before dropping 6.4 percent over the next month, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The VIX is the benchmark gauge of S&P 500 options prices.
“We’re definitely in a rare spot,” Josh Dollinger, Chief quantitative and technical strategist at BTIG in New York, said in a telephone interview. “These are extreme readings. They more often than not prove to be exhaustion tops.”
The S&P 500 rose 5.4 percent this year through yesterday, poised for the best January since it rose 6.1 percent during the first month of 1997, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Stocks are extending the measure’s 11 percent rally in the October-December period, its best fourth-quarter increase since 2003 as improvements in hiring, manufacturing and home sales bolstered confidence in the world’s largest economy.
To contact the reporter on this story: Lu Wang in New York at lwang8@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Michael P. Regan at mregan12@bloomberg.net
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