Economic Calendar

Thursday, July 3, 2008

Rudd Counts on Ex-Boss Garnaut for Australia Climate

By Gemma Daley and Angela Macdonald-Smith

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Ross Garnaut, the architect of a floating currency that launched Australia's 17-year economic expansion, will tomorrow outline his plan to clean up the environment without stunting that growth.

The 15-month study, commissioned by Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, will address the economic impact of cutting pollution in a nation that produces five times as much carbon dioxide per person as China. The report has led to concern that higher energy costs will cut earnings at the resource companies driving Australia's growth and a backlash from consumers battling record fuel costs.


``This thing is a real tax that we're putting on this country and our products,'' said Don Voelte, chief executive officer of Woodside Petroleum Ltd., manager of Australia's biggest liquefied natural gas producer. Voelte said in April he ``loses sleep'' over how companies competing with overseas rivals will be compensated for the introduction of a cost on carbon.

Rudd, whose first act as prime minister was to ratify the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, is bidding to show that Australia can provide leadership on the environment and establish a national emissions trading system in 2010. Garnaut, Rudd's boss in the 1980s, says tackling climate change is as critical to Australia's economy as deregulation was 20 years ago.

``We have to ensure the economy can continue to grow,'' Garnaut, 61, said in an interview in Canberra June 5. ``That means creating a trading system that works without market intervention.''

First Target

Garnaut, who served as ambassador to China from 1985 to 1988 when Rudd was a newly arrived diplomat, in March said the first target for emissions would be set for 2013, the year after the Kyoto commitment expires. Coal and crude oil prices have reached records this year amid rising demand and constrained supply.

The cost of climate change is already being felt by Australians through higher water, energy and food prices. Gasoline prices rose to a record A$1.62 ($1.56) per liter last week, according to industry data, and food prices rose 2.1 percent in the first quarter, the fastest pace in two years, government figures show.

Treasurer Wayne Swan said June 29 that starting an emissions-trading program is a ``very, very tough reform'' that will increase the cost of living.

Business would have to raise costs to adapt to the trading, which sets a price on carbon gases and allows businesses and individuals to trade permits to maintain their emissions limit, said Business Council of Australia President Greig Gailey.

Pass on Costs

``Businesses will pass higher energy costs on to consumers,'' Gailey told the Committee of Economic Development Association in Sydney today, according to an e-mailed copy of his speech.

The trading plan, which will cover more than 70 percent of the country's emissions, will use the so-called cap-and-trade design utilized in the European Union. Companies are set an emissions cap and must hold sufficient permits to meet that limit. If they exceed the target, they buy permits from businesses that have undershot their respective caps.

``There's no one better than Ross at understanding the economic implications of climate change,'' said former Australian Prime Minister Bob Hawke. ``He's not a mad, way out Greenie.''

Garnaut, who says he had little interest in the environment before his appointment to head the study by then opposition leader Rudd in April 2007, served as Hawke's chief economic adviser when the nation floated its currency and cut tariffs in the 1980s. The economy has expanded each year since 1991, doubling in size to almost $1 trillion.

Worst Drought

Australia is experiencing its worst drought on record, with water-use restrictions having been in place in Sydney for six years. The Murray-Darling Basin river system, home to almost half of the nation's farms, is under long-term environmental and ecological degradation as a result of land clearing and water shortages, a government report said last month.

The experience of Rudd and Garnaut in working together in China may also help in global discussions on climate change. China, the world's fastest growing major economy, is the biggest emitter of carbon dioxide, according to the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. India, the second-fastest growing economy, ranked fourth, it said.

``There's no solution to the world problem without China playing a major part in it, full stop,'' Garnaut said. ``Rudd's background in China will be helpful.''

Garnaut's diplomatic experience can help bring China on board, given that ``developed countries have polluted their way to prosperity,'' Hawke said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Gemma Daley in Canberra at gdaley@bloomberg.netAngela Macdonald-Smith in Sydney at amacdonaldsm@bloomberg.net;



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Newcrest Completes A$1.7 Billion Hedge Book Closure

By Jesse Riseborough

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Newcrest Mining Ltd., the largest Australian gold mining company, completed the closure of its gold hedge book for A$1.7 billion ($1.6 billion), 11 percent higher than estimated.

The increased cost was offset by the higher price of gold, the Melbourne-based company said today in a statement. The company closed out forward sales contracts by buying 4 million ounces at an average price of A$868 an ounce, it said.

Chief Executive Officer Ian Smith last year completed a A$2 billion share sale to help fund a buyout of the forward sales contracts. Global gold mining companies such as Newmont Mining Corp. have been closing hedge books to take advantage of record prices for the precious metal.

Higher prices meant the company did not need to use any debt to fund the closure as initially forecast, it said.

Newcrest rose A$1.18, or 4 percent, to A$31.01 yesterday on the Australian stock exchange, giving it a market value of A$14 billion.

Mining companies can agree to sell future production at current prices to protect against losses caused by sudden declines, a strategy known as hedging.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jesse Riseborough in Melbourne at jriseborough@bloomberg.net



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Gold Holds Near 2-1/2 Month High in Asia on Crude Oil, Dollar

By Glenys Sim

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Gold held near a 2-1/2 month high as record energy costs and a declining dollar boosted demand for bullion as an alternative investment.

The precious metal tends to rise in tandem with oil as demand for an inflation hedge increases. Oil gained to a record $144.44 a barrel after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in inventories.

Gold is ``benefiting from high oil prices and capital flows linked to ongoing U.S. dollar weakness,'' David Moore, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney, said today in an e-mail.

Bullion for immediate delivery, which has gained 13 percent this year on rising oil prices and a falling dollar, was little changed at $943.72 an ounce at 9:42 a.m. in Singapore. Gold reached $946.08 July 1, the highest since April 18. Silver for immediate delivery fell 0.3 percent to $18.3275 an ounce.

The dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro as economists forecast the European Central Bank will raise its main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point and U.S. payrolls will drop for a sixth month. The currency stood at $1.5868 against the euro, compared with $1.5882 late yesterday in New York, and was at 106.03 yen from 105.91 yen.

The euro may weaken in the aftermath of the anticipated ECB rate hike, as the currency markets are likely to correct after recent euro strength, and ``this could weigh on gold prices,'' according to James Steel, an analyst at HSBC Securities in New York.

Gold for August delivery was down 0.2 percent at $944.80 an ounce in after-hours electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:46 a.m. Singapore time.

Gold for June delivery on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange added 2 yen to 3,242 yen a gram ($951 an ounce) at the 11 a.m. local time break.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net



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Arques Industries, IKB, Deutsche Bank: German Equity Preview

By Nadja Brandt

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose shares may have unusual price changes in Germany. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from the previous close.

The X-DAX Index fell 0.8 percent to 6249.14. The measure, derived from trading in DAX Index futures, provides an estimate of Germany's benchmark index. The DAX fell 0.2 percent to 6,305.42.

Arques Industries AG (AQU GY): The investment company plans to release second-quarter results. The company in May reported a first-quarter loss after writing down the value of assets. The shares added 64 cents, or 12 percent, to 5.86 euros.

Deutsche Bank AG (DBK GY): Germany's biggest bank plans to buy parts of ABN Amro Holding NV's commercial banking operations in the Netherlands from Fortis (FORB BB) for 709 million euros ($1.13 billion). Deutsche Bank climbed 2.04 euros, or 3.9 percent, to 54.48 euros. Fortis shares advanced 24 cents, or 2.4 percent, to 10.18 euros.

IKB Deutsche Industriebank AG (IKB GY): The bank bailed out after losses on U.S. subprime investments plans to publish fiscal full-year results. The company in May reported a nine- month loss after writedowns. The shares climbed 6 cents, or 2.1 percent, to 2.87 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nadja Brandt in Los Angeles at nbrandt@bloomberg.net



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Eramet, EADS, Icade, Ingenico, Trigano: French Stocks Preview

By Francois de Beaupuy

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose stocks may have unusual changes in Paris. Symbols are in parentheses after company names and prices are from the last close.

France's CAC 40 Index slid 44.73, or 1 percent, to 4,296.48 in Paris, declining for a second day. The SBF 120 Index retreated 1.1 percent.

Eramet SA (ERA FP): The mining company's main shareholder, the Duval family, has started selling part of its 37 percent stake, Challenges magazine reported without saying where it got the information. The shares fell 75.88 euros, or 13 percent, to 500 euros.

European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. (EAD FP): Gustav Humbert, the former chief executive officer of the company's Airbus SAS unit, was charged with insider trading for selling shares before disclosing production delays on the company's A380 superjumbo airliner. The shares declined 15 cents, or 1.3 percent, to 11.74 euros.

Icade SA (ICAD FP): The real-estate company bought three clinics and a convalescent center in France from 3H for 76 million euros. The shares dropped 20 cents, or 0.3 percent, to 72 euros.

Ingenico SA (ING FP): The world's largest maker of payment terminals plans to spend as much as 8 million euros buying back its own shares through Sept. 17. The shares fell 31 cents, or 1.4 percent, to 21.38 euros.

Publicis Groupe SA (PUB FP): The owner of the Saatchi & Saatchi and Leo Burnett advertising agencies agreed to buy Kekst and Company Inc., a New York-based public relations firm. The shares declined 53 cents, or 2.6 percent, to 19.52 euros.

Trigano SA (TRI FP): The maker of recreational vehicles reported an 11 percent decline in fiscal third-quarter sales to 248.7 million euros and said it is ``adapting'' production in line with slower sales of leisure vehicles. The shares fell 10 cents, or 0.8 percent, to 13.25 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Francois de Beaupuy in Paris at fdebeaupuy@bloomberg.net.



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U.K. Wage Bargainers Fail to Win Bigger Raises, Report Shows

By Jennifer Ryan

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. salary negotiators failed to clinch bigger pay increases than a year earlier in the three months through May to compensate for accelerating inflation, a report by Incomes Data Services showed.

The median salary increase was 3.5 percent in the period, matching the result for the same period in 2007, the London-based researcher said today. The result is based on 168 pay agreements covering 2.5 million workers.

Bank of England Deputy Governor for Monetary Policy Charles Bean told U.K. lawmakers yesterday that faster inflation won't stick provided pay doesn't increase to offset it. The consumer price index reached 3.3 percent in May and the retail price index, used in pay agreements, was 4.3 percent.

The lack of an acceleration in pay ``is mainly the result of a range of lower increases being awarded in the public sector, under the influence of the government's pay policy,'' the report said. ``Pay settlements in the private sector are holding up at relatively high levels.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Jennifer Ryan in London at Jryan13@bloomberg.net



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Asian Stocks Decline for Fifth Day; Toyota, Posco, BHP Retreat

By Chen Shiyin and Shani Raja

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a fifth day, extending a global slump, after oil rose to a record, deepening concern global economic growth will slow and erode profits.

Toyota Motor Corp. dropped as crude climbed above $144 a barrel. Posco led steelmakers lower on speculation falling vehicle sales will reduce demand for the metal. BHP Billiton Ltd. plunged the most in more than three months following declines in platinum, palladium and coal prices.


``The world has definitely turned bearish and sentiment is very negative,'' said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of about $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. ``The price of oil at this time is choking demand. That's what the world's equity markets are reacting to.''

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index lost 0.7 percent to 133.58 at 12:33 p.m. in Tokyo, following a four-day, 3.2 percent retreat. Concern that surging commodity prices will fuel inflation and derail growth dragged the measure to the lowest since March 18.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 0.2 percent to 13,232.21, snapping a 10-day, 8.1 percent slump. Indonesia's Jakarta Composite Index fell 3.1 percent, Asia's biggest loss. All other benchmark indexes in the region fell apart from China.

Trading was suspended on Malaysia's stock exchange for the morning session due to a ``multi-hardware failure'' in its core trading system, Bursa Malaysia Bhd. said.

Bear Market

U.S. stocks dropped yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a bear market. General Motors Corp. plunged to a 54-year low after Merrill Lynch & Co. warned that ``bankruptcy is not impossible'' as U.S. auto demand slows and lowered its rating on the automaker. Futures on the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.1 percent.

Toyota, which gets about half of its profit from North America, lost 1 percent to 4,890 yen. Honda Motor Co., Japan's second-largest automaker, declined 0.8 percent to 3,570 yen.

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent to a record $144.44 a barrel in New York today after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev said prices may climb to $150. Futures have doubled in the past year.

Finance ministers from the Group of Eight nations said last month surging food and fuel prices have replaced the credit squeeze as the biggest threat to the world economy. The Bank for International Settlements, which lends to central banks, said on June 30 interest rates should be raised globally to curb price increases.

`Bloody Market'

MSCI's Asian index fell 13 percent in the first half of this year, the worst start since 1992. None of the region's stock benchmarks have advanced this year, while China's 49 percent drop this year has made it the world's second-worst performer after Vietnam among 88 global indexes tracked by Bloomberg data.

``It's very bloody market out there: oil continues marching to a record and the U.S. market has officially entered a bear market,'' said Olan Caperina, who helps manage about $6.7 billion at BPI Asset Management Inc. in Manila. ``Investors are scared and markets are in panic.''

Soaring fuel costs contributed to an 18 percent plunge in U.S. vehicle sales last month, according to a report this week. That's the steepest slump in almost six years. GM's sales fell 18 percent as demand for pickups and sport-utility vehicles waned and the automaker said it will cut North American production this quarter by about 12 percent.

Posco, South Korea's largest steelmaker, dropped 6 percent to 491,500 won. Bluescope Steel Ltd., Australia's biggest, fell 7.9 percent to A$10.26. Nippon Steel Corp., the world's second- biggest steelmaker, declined 1.3 percent to 548 yen.

Hyundai Steel, BHP

Hyundai Steel Co., South Korea's No. 2 steelmaker, slumped 6.4 percent to 67,000 won after UBS AG cut its rating on the shares to ``neutral'' from ``buy.''

BHP, the world's largest mining company, lost 5.6 percent to A$40.50, poised for its largest slump since March 20. Rio Tinto Group, the third-biggest, declined 6.1 percent to A$124.20. Platinum and palladium prices dropped yesterday on concern that demand for the metals used in car parts will slow.

Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year fell $27.50, or 13 percent, to $190 a metric ton in London, according to ICAP Plc prices supplied to Bloomberg.

Gloucester Coal Ltd., an Australian producer of the fuel, plunged 14 percent to A$10.45. Straits Asia Resources, which supplies coal to Japan, Taiwan and South Korea, slumped 9.7 percent to S$3.15 in Singapore. PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's biggest coal producer, lost 9.6 percent to 7,500 rupiah.

Ping An Insurance (Group) Co., China's No. 2 insurer, dropped 8.3 percent to 39.45 yuan in Shanghai, adding to its 10 percent slump yesterday.

There has been speculation about ``regular investigations conducted by the State Administration of Taxation on the company,'' Ping An said yesterday. ``The speculation is not in accordance with facts.''

To contact the reporter for this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net; Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.



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China's Stocks Gain as Valuations Hit Two-Year Low; Citic Rises

By Chua Kong Ho and Zhang Shidong

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- China's stocks rose, as some investors took advantage of the lowest valuations in almost two years to buy shares.

Jiangxi Copper Co. surged by the daily 10 percent limit after copper climbed to a record yesterday in London. Citic Securities Co., the country's second-largest brokerage by value, climbed for the first time in six days.

The CSI 300 Index, which tracks yuan-denominated shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen, gained 47.25, or 1.8 percent, to 2,746.85 at the 11:30 a.m. local-time break. Nine of the 10 industry groups rose, with about 21 stocks gaining for each that declined.

The benchmark earlier dropped as much as 3.1 percent, sending the CSI 300 Index down 50 percent for the year. The 300 stocks on the gauge are valued at an average 20 times reported earnings, the lowest since August 2006.

``The market has already dropped to a point most investors think of as reasonable,'' said Wu Kan, a fund manager in Shanghai at Dazhong Insurance Co., which oversees the equivalent of $285 million. ``Stocks are falling too much and now people are betting on a rebound.''

The Shanghai Composite Index, a measure of stocks traded in the larger of China's two exchanges, advanced 1.3 percent to 2,685.98. The Shenzhen Composite Index gained 2.9 percent.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Chua Kong Ho in Shanghai at Kchua6@bloomberg.net



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Australia's S&P/ASX Index Drops to Almost Two-Year Low on Oil

By Shani Raja

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australia's benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index fell to its lowest since September 2006 on concern record oil prices will dampen global economic growth.

BHP Billiton Ltd., the world's largest mining company, slumped 5.6 percent to its lowest in almost three months, while BlueScope Steel Ltd., the nation's biggest steelmaker, lost 6.8 percent after crude oil rose above $144 a barrel.

The S&P/ASX 200 declined for the fifth straight day, losing 98, or 1.9 percent, to 4,996.8 at 11:22 a.m. local time, the lowest since Sept. 26, 2006.

``The world has definitely turned bearish and sentiment is very negative,'' said Prasad Patkar, who helps manage the equivalent of about $1.8 billion at Platypus Asset Management in Sydney. ``The resources stocks which have held up well so far are being thrown out as probably the last capitulation trade.''

Australia's benchmark has dropped by more than a quarter since its Nov. 1, 2007, record high after the nation's central bank raised interest rates three times to a 12-year high and oil surged, raising costs for producers and denting retail spending.

Higher borrowing costs are weighing on an expansion driven by demand for the nation's iron ore and coal and adding to concern credit-market losses will curb financial earnings.

A measure of consumer discretionary stocks has plunged 42 percent since the S&P/ASX 200's November high, while financials have tumbled 38 percent.

U.S. stocks fell yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a bear market as steelmakers and coal producers retreated on concern the global economy will slow.

Oil Fears

General Motors Corp., the biggest U.S. automaker, slumped to a 54-year low on Merrill Lynch & Co.'s warning that ``bankruptcy is not impossible.'' That led to the steepest decline in steel shares since 2002 as concern grew that weakness in the auto market will cut demand.

Meanwhile, crude oil rose to a record above $144 a barrel in New York after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in inventories.

``It all boils down to one thing at this time: high oil prices,'' said Patkar. ``The price of oil at this time is choking demand. That's what the world's equity markets are reacting to.''

The following stocks were among the biggest winners and losers on the Australian stock exchange.

Coal producers: Centennial Coal Co. (CEY AU) slumped 68 cents, or 12 percent, to A$5.09, the most since March 20. Macarthur Coal Ltd. (MCC AU) plunged A$1.86, or 11 percent, to A$14.55, the most since June 2004. Coal prices fell as traders speculated that a rally in the past month pushed prices too high. Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year dropped $27.50, or 13 percent, to $190 a metric ton in London, according to ICAP Plc prices supplied to Bloomberg.

Herald Resources Ltd. (HER AU) gained 0.4 percent to A$2.89, the most in more than two weeks. PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia's biggest coal producer, increased its bid for Herald 1.8 percent to A$563 million ($541 million), edging an offer led by PT Aneka Tambang. Bumi will offer A$2.85 cash for every Herald share, up from A$2.80, it said in a statement sent today to the Australian stock exchange.

Insurance Australia Group Ltd. (IAG AU) rose 6 cents, or 1.7 percent, to A$3.67, the highest in more than two weeks. The company may sell its U.K. units to management, the Insurance Times Web site reported, citing an unnamed source within the company. Sydney-based IAG has hired advisers Lexicon Partners to review options for operations including property and casualty units Equity Insurance, Equity Red Star, Hastings and Advantage, the report said.

Just Group Ltd. (JST AU) dropped 2 cents, or 0.7 percent, to A$2.76, the lowest in more than two years. Premier Investments Ltd. may withdraw its A$800 million ($769 million) bid for Just Group after Australia's largest specialty clothing retailer cut its earnings forecast by 10 percent, the Sydney Morning Herald reported, citing billionaire Solomon Lew, who controls Premier.

QBE Insurance Group Ltd. (QBE AU) advanced 60 cents, or 2.9 percent, to A$21.63, the most since June 25. Australia's biggest casualty insurer had its rating raised to ``buy'' from ``hold'' by analysts at Citigroup Inc.

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





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Australian, N.Z. Dollars Strengthen as Commodity Prices Advance

By Ron Harui and Candice Zachariahs

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose as prices of commodities the two nations export advanced, improving the outlook for the South Pacific economies.

Australia's dollar gained for a second day and New Zealand's dollar ended two days of losses as the UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index climbed to a record, boosting speculation the two countries will weather a global economic slowdown. Raw materials account for 60 percent of Australia's exports and sales of commodities including lumber make up 70 percent of New Zealand's overseas shipments.

``We're positive on the Aussie, we generally regard it as a buy,'' said Sean Callow, a senior currency strategist at Westpac Banking Corp. in Sydney, referring to the currency by its nickname. ``Commodities are overall supportive, the U.S. dollar is weak and the trade numbers should be an improvement.''

Australia's dollar rose to 96.18 U.S. cents as of 11:40 a.m. in Sydney from 95.91 cents late in Asia yesterday and a 25-year high of 96.68 cents touched June 30. The currency bought 101.94 yen from 102.37 yen.

New Zealand's dollar strengthened to 76.03 U.S. cents from 75.72 cents late in Asia yesterday. The currency traded at 80.59 yen from 80.82 yen.

The Australian currency was little changed after the Statistics Bureau said in Sydney today the trade deficit shrank to A$965 million ($928 million) in May from a revised A$12 million surplus in April. The median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a deficit of A$900 million.

Overseas Sales

Record prices for natural resources such as iron ore and coal support the Reserve Bank of Australia's view that the nation's $1 trillion economy will be boosted by a 20 percent surge in income from overseas sales. That may offset falling consumer and business confidence.

The Australian dollar approached its 25-year high yesterday after the government said retail sales rose at the fastest pace in six months in May, raising prospects the central bank will increase interest rates from a 12-year high of 7.25 percent.

``The trade balance will probably play a minor role in driving the currency,'' said Matthew Strauss, a senior currency strategist in Toronto at RBC Capital Markets, a unit of Canada's largest bank. ``The Australian dollar has gained more on broad- based U.S. dollar weakness and a follow-through on yesterday's retail sales data.''

Should the Australian currency close above 96.55 cents it will confirm its ``bullish trend,'' signaling an advance above the 25-year high of 96.68 cents, Strauss said.

Services Index

Gains in the Australian dollar may be limited after a report today showed demand for services fell for a third month in June. The performance of services index declined 4.3 points to 45.4 from May, according to the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the Australian Industry Group. A reading below 50 indicates the sector is contracting.

The New Zealand dollar rose against the U.S. currency after the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.5 percent yesterday, sending the stock index into a bear market.

``The recovery is against a much weaker U.S. dollar and not so much against the other currencies,'' RBC's Strauss said. ``The New Zealand dollar is still taking its guidance from what's happening in the rest of the world, especially on the equity side.''

Australian government bonds gained for the first day in three. The yield on the 10-year note fell 7 basis points to 6.50 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent bond due March 2019 rose 0.478, or A$4.78 per A$1,000 face amount, to 90.445. A basis point equals 0.01 percentage point.

New Zealand government debt was little changed with the 10- year yield holding at 6.34 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomerg.net; Candice Zachariahs in New York at czachariahs1@bloomberg.net.



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Korean Won Little Changed; Traders Say Government May Intervene

By Kim Kyoungwha

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- South Korea's won was little changed as some traders said the government will buy the currency to help contain the fastest inflation in a decade.

The won held near a one-week high after the finance ministry said yesterday policy makers aim to prevent ``drastic movements'' in the currency. Authorities may have sold about $2 to $3 billion yesterday, according to Sam Hong, a currency dealer with Shinhan Bank in Seoul.

``The fears of intervention are keeping traders at bay,'' said Jay Won, a currency dealer with Korea Exchange Bank in Seoul. ``The pressure for the dollar to rise is still lurking and players are looking for a right timing to sell the won.''

The won traded at 1,034.15 against the dollar at 9:20 a.m. in Seoul, after rising as much as 0.5 percent earlier, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd. The won has declined 10 percent this year, the second worst performer of Asia's 10 most- traded currencies outside Japan.

Korea bought about $7 billion worth of won since the end of May to boost the value of the currency and slow inflation, JoongAng Ilbo newspaper reported on July 1.

``While we expect further official action to cap the dollar's upside, we retain the bias to buy on spot market dips,'' Claudio Piron, a currency strategist with JPMorgan & Chase Co. in Singapore, wrote in a report today.

He cited ``unfavorable won fundamentals, equity outflows and uncertain risk appetite'' as reasons to sell the won.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net.



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Indian Rupee to Fall on Current-Account Deficit, ABN Amro Says

By Anoop Agrawal

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- India's rupee will decline to a 16- month low as rising crude oil prices and increased sales of local assets by global investors widen the shortfall in the nation's current account, ABN Amro Bank NV said.

The broad measure of trade that includes investment flows will widen through the second and third quarters, weakening the rupee by 2.1 percent to 44.1 per dollar, said Irene Cheung, a strategist at ABN. The rupee, which completed its worst quarter in a decade on June 30, is the third-biggest decliner this year among the 10-most traded Asian currencies excluding the yen.

``The natural forces are not supporting the rupee at all,'' Singapore-based Cheung said in an interview yesterday. ``The pressure points on the rupee are more in the near term than in the long term. So, the dollar will be overbought and the undertone will be weak for the rupee.''

The rupee closed at 43.1738 per dollar yesterday in Mumbai, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It touched a 15-month low of 43.4750 on July 1.

ABN predicts the rupee will fall to 44.10 in coming months and is revising its year-end forecast, Cheung said.

India's current-account deficit narrowed to $1.04 billion in the three months ended March 31 from $5.1 billion in the previous quarter, the central bank said June 30. The shortfall will widen in the quarter ending June 30 and Sept. 30, Cheung said without providing forecasts.

The trade deficit widened to a record $10.8 billion in May after crude oil prices advanced more than 47 percent this year. Asia's third-largest economy imports three-quarters of its annual oil needs.

Oil Imports

Crude oil for August delivery rose as much as 0.6 percent, to $144.36 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. President of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries Chakib Khelil on June 28 said oil will climb to $170 a barrel before the end of the year.

The rupee may also fall as money managers abroad reduce holdings of the nation's assets, Cheung said.

The benchmark Bombay Stock Exchange Sensitive Index, or Sensex, has lost 32 percent in 2008, following a 47 percent advance last year.

Money managers abroad have sold $6.5 billion more Indian shares than they bought this year, more than a third of their record net purchases of $17.2 billion in 2007, data provided by the Securities & Exchange Board of India show.

``There is still a lot of money in India and the risk is that more money will flow out this year,'' Cheung said. ``Only a small portion of it has gone out and we will see outflows increase.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.



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Dollar Trades Near Two-Month Low Before ECB Decision, Payrolls

By Kosuke Goto

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded near a two-month low against the euro as economists forecast the European Central Bank will raise its main refinancing rate by a quarter- percentage point and U.S. payrolls will drop for a sixth month.

The U.S. currency was also near a two-month low versus the Swiss franc on speculation an industry report today will show growth in U.S. services industries slowed for a second month. The Australian dollar was near a 25-year high before a government report that will probably show the nation's trade deficit shrank to the narrowest in 15 months in May.


``Bad news comes from the U.S. everyday,'' said Toru Umemoto, chief currency strategist in Tokyo at Barclays Capital Inc., the U.K.'s third-biggest bank. ``The ECB's rate hike today is a done deal and the ECB will remain hawkish. The euro may rise above $1.60 against the dollar today.''

The dollar dropped to $1.5891 per euro, the weakest level since April 24, before trading at $1.5881 at 9:31 a.m. in Tokyo, compared with $1.5882 yesterday. The U.S. currency fell to the all-time low of $1.6019 per euro on April 22. The dollar was at 105.87 yen from 105.91 in New York. The euro traded at 168.14 yen from 168.20.

The ECB will lift its 4 percent benchmark rate by a quarter-percentage point today, according to 57 of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The euro rose 0.6 percent yesterday as ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said there's a risk of inflation ``exploding'' if central banks aren't decisive.

The ECB announces its decision at 1:45 p.m. in Frankfurt and Trichet holds a press conference at 2:30 p.m., the same time the U.S. Labor Department releases its jobs data for June.

Dollar Index

The Dollar Index traded on ICE futures in New York, which tracks the currency against those of six trading partners, was at 72.055 from 72.029 yesterday when it reached the lowest since May 27 as a private-sector report showed U.S. companies cut almost four times the amount of jobs as forecast by economists.

The U.S. currency was little changed at 1.0140 versus the Swiss franc, near the lowest level since April 24.

Australia's currency traded at 96.24 U.S. cents compared with 96.19 cents in New York and a 25-year high of 96.68 touched June 30. A government report today may show the shortfall narrowed to A$900 million ($859 million) from A$957 million in April, according to the median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

`Master the Situation'

``If we act in a decisive way, we can master the situation,'' Die Zeit quoted Trichet as saying. The ECB confirmed the comments, which were made June 23 for an article to appear today.

Traders raised bets on higher ECB interest rates after Trichet's comments. The implied rate on the December Euribor interest-rate futures contract increased to 5.29 percent, the highest since June 23.

``Trichet will maintain a cautious stance on inflation, leaving some room for rate increases later this year,'' said Ayako Sera, a market strategist at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. in Tokyo, Japan's sixth-largest publicly traded lender by assets. ``The euro may challenge the $1.60 mark today.''

French President Nicolas Sarkozy, who has criticized Trichet for not following the Federal Reserve's example of cutting interest rates, said last week on France 3 television that the ECB ``should ask itself the question about economic growth in Europe and not only inflation.''

Yield Advantage

The yield advantage of two-year German bunds over comparable-maturity Treasury notes increased yesterday to 2.06 percentage points, the widest since June 6, making the European securities more attractive to investors.

Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade showed a 25 percent chance the Fed will raise its target rate for overnight lending between banks by a quarter-percentage point to 2.25 percent at its meeting on Aug. 5, compared with 36 percent odds a week ago.

The Labor Department will probably report today that U.S. employers eliminated 60,000 jobs including government positions last month, according to the median forecast of 79 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The dollar weakened 1.2 percent against the euro and 1 percent versus the yen on June 6, when the government reported that the U.S. lost 49,000 jobs in May.

An index of service industries probably fell to 51 in June from 51.7 the prior month, economists forecast a report from the Institute for Supply Management will show.

`Very Bad Again'

The U.S. currency may depreciate to $1.69 per euro by September, wrote Citigroup Global Markets technical strategists Tom Fitzpatrick and Shyam Devani in a research note yesterday. A close weaker than $1.5844 would form a double bottom ``virtually identical'' to one before the decline to the record low reached in April, they wrote. The pattern forms when a currency falls, rises and then drops back to the earlier low.

``We cannot help but feel that things might be about to get very bad again soon,'' wrote New York-based Fitzpatrick and London-based Devani, who use charts to predict a currency's movements.

President George W. Bush said yesterday at the White House that ``we're strong-dollar people,'' while Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said in London that the U.S. economy is ``going through a rough period.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Kosuke Goto in Tokyo at kgoto2@bloomberg.net;


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Soybeans Extend Gain to Record as Midwest Floods Cut U.S. Acres

By Dave McCombs

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose to a record for a third day on speculation that the worst Midwest flooding in 15 years will limit gains in U.S. production and inventories.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 6.75 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $16.3675 a bushel in after-hours trading on the Chicago Board of Trade. The price jumped 15 percent in June and 31 percent in the second quarter, the most since the three months through June 1988.

To contact the reporter for this story: Dave McCombs in Tokyo at dmccombs@bloomberg.net.



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Crude Oil Rises to Record Above $144 After U.S. Stockpile Drop

By Christian Schmollinger

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose to a record above $144 a barrel in New York after a U.S. government report showed an unexpected decline in inventories and as an expected increase in euro interest rates may spur commodities buying.

Supplies dropped 1.98 million barrels to 299.8 million last week, the lowest since January, the Energy Department said yesterday. Analysts assumed a gain of 500,000 barrels. The European Central bank may boost interest rates today, further weakening the dollar and causing investors to buy oil contracts as a hedge against inflation.

``The combination of the weaker U.S. dollar along with the bullish inventory data that's what spurred prices to the highs,'' said Toby Hassall, a research analyst at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney. ``If the ECB raises rates, I think we'll see more weakness in the dollar and upward pressure on U.S. denominated commodities such as crude.''

Crude oil for August delivery climbed as much as 87 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $144.44 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest since trading began in 1983. It was at $144.34 at 9:27 a.m. in Singapore. Futures have more than doubled in the past year.

Oil's appeal as a hedge against inflation may increase if the European Central Bank boosts interest rates today, causing the dollar to fall. The bank will lift its 4 percent benchmark main refinancing rate by a quarter-percentage point, according to 57 of 58 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Brent Record

Brent crude for August delivery rose 85 cents, or 0.6 percent, to a record $145.11 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange.

Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, whose country is the world's second-largest oil producer, said he expects oil will hit $150 a barrel, and suggested the high price will slow global economic growth.

``I have said that oil prices will reach $150 a barrel,'' Medvedev said in a meeting with reporters in Moscow ahead of his participation in a summit of the Group of Eight industrial countries in Japan next week. ``Unfortunately, rising oil prices create problems for the world's economy.''

Oil prices were steady yesterday when the Energy Department report was first released and showed a gain in fuel inventories.

U.S. gasoline inventories rose 2.1 million barrels to 210.9 million and supplies of distillate fuel, including heating oil and diesel, increased 1.3 million barrels to 120.7 million barrels, the Energy Department said in its report today.

The margin for turning three barrels of crude into two of gasoline and one of heating oil rose 6.4 cents to $12.678 a barrel, based on futures prices. That's 38 percent lower than $20.5140 reached on June 3.

Refineries operated at 89.2 percent of their capacity, the department reported, 0.6 percentage point higher than the week before. Refiners operated at 90 percent of capacity a year earlier.

To contact the reporters on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net



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Copper Soars to Record as Slumping Dollar Spurs Commodity Rally

By Millie Munshi

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Copper jumped to a record in London and closed at the highest ever in New York as a slumping dollar and surging energy costs spurred demand for commodities as a hedge against inflation.

The dollar fell to a two-month low against the euro after a report showed U.S. companies cut more jobs than forecast last month. Oil approached the record $143.67 a barrel, and the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 raw materials reached the highest ever. Copper surged 34 percent this year as investors snapped up energy, grain and metal futures as a store of value.

``Inflation fears have made commodities king now, and copper is in the king's court,'' said William O'Neill, a partner at Logic Advisors in Upper Saddle River, New Jersey. ``If the dollar continues to weaken, there's no telling how high copper could go.''

Copper rose as much 3.8 percent to a record $8,940 a metric ton ($4.05 a pound) on the London Metal Exchange. The previous all-time high was $8,880 on April 17.

The metal closed up $107.50, or 1.2 percent, at $8,720.

On the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, copper futures for September delivery rose 15.3 cents, or 3.9 percent, to $4.0635 a pound, the highest closing price ever. The price reached a record $4.2605 on May 5.

The dollar has dropped 14 percent against the euro in the past year, helping to spur a 15 percent rally in copper futures. Some traders buy commodities to preserve purchasing power.

Dollar `Getting Killed'

``The dollar is really getting killed, and copper is moving up primarily on that,'' said Donald Selkin, the chief market strategist at National Securities Corp. in New York.

The euro gained as much as 0.6 percent to $1.5887. The record was $1.6010 on April 22.

The CRB index, up 32 percent this year, reached 472.85, the highest ever. In the first half of 2008, commodities rallied 29 percent, the most in 35 years.

A strike in Peru, the world's third-largest copper supplier, triggered supply concerns, boosting metal prices.

Peru is a ``pretty significant producer,'' said Allan Trench, a London-based analyst at consulting company CRU. ``If it's an extended countrywide issue, it wouldn't take long to get to $9,000 a ton.''

A national strike by Peruvian mine workers which began on June 30 will continue until Congress sets a date for a vote on new industry legislation, Luis Castillo, general secretary of the Mining Federation, said yesterday. The group represents 28,000 mine workers and 70 unions.

Labor Protests

Labor unrest in Latin American countries including Mexico and Chile, the world's biggest source of the metal, has reduced mine output in the past year. Copper has soared more than fivefold since 2003 as mining companies struggled to keep up with increasing demand from China and other emerging economies.

Earlier, copper fell as much as 0.8 percent on concern that slower U.S. economic growth will curb demand for the metal used in homes, cars and appliances.

Companies in the U.S. cut an estimated 79,000 jobs in June, ADP Employer Services said today, citing a survey of employers. The median estimate of 27 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was 20,000.

Slower U.S. growth will pressure prices for industrial commodities, investor Marc Faber said yesterday in a Bloomberg Television interview.

``Copper is in a tricky place right now after the jobs report,'' Selkin of National Securities said. ``The report is making the dollar weaker, which boosts copper on the inflation story. That weaker dollar also means that the economy is looking pretty miserable, and copper will have a hard time moving much beyond these current levels because of that.''

To contact the reporter on the story: Millie Munshi in New York at mmunshi@bloomberg.net.



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Platinum, Palladium Fall in N.Y. as U.S. Auto Sales Plummet

By Halia Pavliva

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Platinum and palladium fell after U.S. auto sales plunged in June, fueling concerns that demand for the metals used in car parts will slow.

General Motors Corp., Toyota Motor Corp. and Ford Motor Co., the top three in U.S. auto sales, reported declines yesterday as consumers shunned larger vehicles. The industry's 18 percent drop in U.S. sales was the steepest in almost six years and pushed the annual rate to the lowest since 1993. Platinum fell for second time in the past five sessions.

``The noble metal cannot ignore the scary numbers coming from auto dealer lots in the U.S. -- the worst in a decade,'' Jon Nadler, a senior analyst at Kitco Minerals & Metals Inc. in Montreal, said via e-mail. ``Every car not sold could eventually result in a car not produced and a few less grams of platinum, palladium, rhodium not taken from the market.''

Platinum futures for October delivery fell $11.70, or 0.6 percent, to $2,077 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Most-active futures gained 3.2 percent in the past five sessions. Platinum, which is also used in jewelry, reached a record $2,308.80 on March 4.

Carmakers such as GM said they ran short of smaller, more fuel-efficient cars last month, further depressing sales. Catalytic converters used to remove noxious chemicals from the exhausts of large and small engines contain an average 4 grams of platinum or related metals such as palladium or rhodium.

Some analysts also cited slowing demand for precious metals in China, which accounts for 49 percent of platinum used in jewelry.

Chinese Demand

``We are becoming increasingly concerned about China slowing and its impact on metal demand,'' John Reade, the head of UBS AG metals strategy in London, said in an e-mailed note. ``In an interesting e-mail conversation with the head of trading at a major Chinese precious metals company over the weekend, weakness in the equity market was cited as one of the main factors behind a sharp turn down in appetite for precious metals in China in the past couple of months.''

Platinum futures have climbed 36 percent this year, partly because of supply disruptions from South Africa, a source of 78 percent of the world's supply of the precious metal last year. Lonmin Plc, the third-largest platinum producer, said earlier this week that it will shut its Number One smelter furnace in South Africa for about seven days for repairs after a water leak was detected.

``It's just profit taking today,'' said Walter Otstott, a senior broker at Dallas Commodity Co. in Dallas. ``We will still go higher. There are still electricity shortages in South Africa and the infrastructure in the country is horrible.''

Platinum may trade between $2,400 and $2,500 an ounce by year-end, Otstott said.

Price Outlook

The metal will average more than previously expected this year and next, bolstered by a widening supply shortfall, Commerzbank AG said in an e-mailed report today. In 2007, most- active futures averaged $1,314.76 an ounce, Bloomberg data show.

Futures will average $2,000 an ounce this year, compared with a previous forecast of $1,850, the bank said. Platinum will average $2,125 next year, from an earlier estimate of $1,650, Commerzbank said.

Production of platinum has fallen short of demand in eight of the past nine years, according to Johnson Matthey Plc, the maker of one-third of catalysts used in auto parts. The deficit is expected to be 260,000 ounces this year, London-based Blue Oar Securities Plc said in a report in May.

Palladium futures for September delivery fell $2.05, or 0.4 percent, to $470 an ounce in New York. Most-active futures rose 1.1 percent in the past five sessions and have gained 24 percent this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Halia Pavliva in New York at hpavliva@bloomberg.net.



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Asian Stocks Drop for Fifth Day on Record Oil, Credit Concerns

By Chen Shiyin

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks fell for a fifth day on concern record oil prices will weigh on global economic growth and speculation increased credit-market losses will deepen.

Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's largest automaker, dropped after oil climbed above $144 a barrel and Merrill Lynch & Co. said General Motors Corp., Toyota's largest U.S. rival, could face bankruptcy. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. and Kookmin Bank paced a slide among banks after Oppenheimer & Co. cut its earnings estimates for Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc.

The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index lost 1 percent to 133.25 at 9:14 a.m. in Tokyo, following a four-day, 3.2 percent retreat. Concern that surging commodity prices will fuel inflation and derail growth dragged the benchmark to the lowest since March 18, when turmoil in credit markets pushed up borrowing costs and led to the forced sale of Bear Stearns Cos. to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Average slipped 1.1 percent to 13,144.80, extending a 10-day retreat that was the longest since 1965. Benchmarks fell elsewhere in markets open for trading.

U.S. stocks declined yesterday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a bear market. GM plunged to a 54-year low after Merrill Lynch warned that ``bankruptcy is not impossible'' and lowered its rating on the automaker to ``underperform'' from ``buy.''

To contact the reporter for this story: Chen Shiyin in Singapore at schen37@bloomberg.net.




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Japan's Stock Futures Fall on Worsening Auto, Financial Outlook

By Makiko Kitamura and Masaki Kondo

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Japan's stock futures fell on mounting concern General Motors Corp. may face bankruptcy and U.S. banks will post further credit-related losses.

U.S.-traded receipts of Toyota Motor Corp., maker of the best-selling Corolla model in the U.S., retreated 2 percent from the closing share price in Tokyo yesterday. Mizuho Financial Group Inc., the Japanese bank most heavily hit by the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market, declined 1.2 percent.


GM shares fell to their lowest since 1954 in New York yesterday after a Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst said it may need to raise as much as $15 billion and faces possible bankruptcy. The carmaker has sufficient liquidity, the company said.

``Cars and financials are the heart of the U.S. economy,'' said Yoku Ihara, head of equity research at Tokyo-based Retela Crea Securities Co. ``When GM rattles, so does the U.S. economy.''

Nikkei 225 Stock Average futures expiring in September last traded at 13,230 in Chicago, 0.5 percent lower than the close of 13,290 in Osaka and 0.6 percent down from 13,315 in Singapore yesterday. The Bank of New York Japan ADR Index, which tracks American depositary receipts of Japanese companies, slid 2.3 percent.

Merrill Lynch and Citigroup Inc. had their second-quarter earnings cut by Oppenheimer & Co. on expectations of writedowns related to subprime mortgages and bond-insurer downgrades.

Crude oil rose 1.8 percent to $143.57 a barrel after touching a record $144.32. Copper rose to a record $8,940 a metric ton, and gold advanced to $946.50 an ounce.

The Nikkei dropped 1.3 percent to 13,286.37 yesterday, a 10th-straight decline, the longest streak since March 1965. The broader Topix index slumped 18.92, or 1.4 percent, to 1,301.15.

To contact the reporters for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net; Makiko Kitamura in Tokyo at mkitamura1@bloomberg.net.



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Brazilian Stocks Fall on Inflation Concern; Bolsa, Ipsa Slump

By Alexander Ragir and Paulo Winterstein

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Brazil's Bovespa stock index fell to the lowest in three months, led by homebuilders, steelmakers and miners, on concern accelerating inflation may push interest rates higher and the slowing U.S. economy may reduce demand for metals.

Rossi Residencial SA paced losses for homebuilders after UBS AG said real estate stocks won't gain until there is more clarity on interest rates. Lojas Renner SA, the biggest clothing retailer, fell the most in more than two months. Steelmaker Gerdau SA and miner Cia. Vale do Rio Doce tumbled as concern grew that the U.S. auto slump will cut demand and the government said metal orders declined.

``It's more of the same, people worrying about inflation and interest rates,'' said Saulo Sabba, who helps manage the equivalent of $245 million as investment director at Maxima Asset Management in Rio de Janeiro. ``This market could get hit with a lot more of this before recovering.''

The Bovespa index of most-traded shares on the Sao Paulo exchange slid 2,289.97, or 3.6 percent, to 61,106.22, the lowest since March 31. Stock indexes across Latin America tumbled after oil prices rose to a record and the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered a bear market. Mexico's Bolsa retreated 1.9 percent, while Chile's Ipsa dropped 3.7 percent.

Rossi, Brazil's third-biggest homebuilder, lost 4.4 percent to 10.75 reais. Gafisa SA, Brazil's second-biggest homebuilder, retreated 5.4 percent to 24.70 reais.

``Until there is greater clarity on the duration and magnitude of the ongoing tightening in Brazil, it is difficult to see this sector gaining much traction from a stock performance standpoint,'' UBS analysts including Gordon Lee wrote in a note.

Retailers Decline

Retailers fell on concern that higher borrowing costs may stifle consumer demand. Renner slumped 6.1 percent to 28.91 reais. Natura Cosmeticos SA dropped 4.3 percent to 15.99 reais.

The yield on Brazil's interest-rate futures contract for January 2009 delivery rose 6 basis points to 13.43 percent, leaving it more than 1 percentage point above the central bank's overnight rate, an indication traders anticipate the central bank will keep raising rates to stem inflation.

``The bad news is that the economy is producing near capacity, but is no longer able to meet the sustained expansion of domestic demand,'' wrote Goldman Sachs economists including Paulo Leme, referring to yesterday's industrial production number in a research report today.

A report yesterday showed Brazilian output rose 2.4 percent in May, less than the 4.2 percent median forecast.

Vale fell 5.7 percent to 43.40 reais as most metals traded on the London Metals Exchange declined, with nickel, responsible for almost one-third of Vale revenue in 2007, dropping to a two- year low. The company's possible purchase of assets of Brazilian base-metals miner Paranapanema SA also raised concern about Vale entering other metals markets through a company with more than 1.4 billion reais ($750 million) in debt.

`Taking a Hit'

``Vale has been taking a hit lately on falling metals prices,'' Juliana Chu, analyst at Espirito Santo Securities in Sao Paulo, said by phone. In a note sent to investors about Vale's interest in Paranapanema assets, Chu wrote that ``we wonder if use of these resources for another kind of asset wouldn't be more interesting.''

Vale said yesterday it may try to buy Paranapanema's Caraiba Metais SA, which runs Brazil's only copper smelter, and fertilizer unit Cia. Brasileira de Fertilizantes.

Gerdau fell 7.1 percent to 35.85 reais. Cia. Siderurgica Nacional SA, Brazil's third- largest steelmaker, dropped the most on the Bovespa, losing 7.5 percent to 63.20 reais.

GM, the biggest U.S. automaker, fell to the lowest since 1954 after Merrill Lynch & Co. said it may need to raise as much as $15 billion and faces the possibility of bankruptcy.

``Higher oil, global inflation, bank losses in the U.S. and Europe, all these factors are creating uncertainty and risk aversion, and so investors are selling steel, which had accumulated some fat this year,'' said Pedro Galdi, analyst at SLW Corretora in Sao Paulo.

Food Inflation

Perdigao SA, Brazil's biggest food company, fell 4.3 percent to 40.40 reais. Accelerating food inflation is raising concern that Perdigao's dairy business will suffer in the second quarter, said Brascan Corretora analyst Denise Messer in a phone interview.

JBS SA, the world's biggest beef producer, gained the most in the Bovespa after UBS AG said improved U.S. margins and the resumption of exports to South Korea may boost earnings.

JBS added 4.1 percent to 8.10 reais. Only seven stocks rose today.

In Mexico, the Bolsa dropped for a second day.

Fomento Economico Mexicano SAB, Latin America's largest beverage company, slid 4.3 percent to 44.52 pesos after Banco Santander said it was ``cautious'' on Latin American bottlers due to labor issues and possible increases in costs.

In other Latin America markets, Argentina's Merval slid 3 percent, Peru's Lima General dropped 2.8 percent and Colombia's IGBC fell 0.1 percent. In the U.S., the 30-stock Dow average extended its retreat from the October record to more than the 20 percent, the first time since 2002 the gauge has closed below the threshold that signals a so-called bear market.

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexander Ragir in Rio de Janeiro at aragir@bloomberg.net; Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net.



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U.S. Stocks Slump as Oil Surges; Dow Average Enters Bear Market

By Michael Patterson

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stocks tumbled, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average into a bear market, after oil rose to a record and steelmakers and coal producers retreated on concern the economic slump will worsen.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index slid to its lowest since July 2006 as crude climbed above $144 a barrel, dimming the outlook for corporate profits. General Motors Corp., the biggest U.S. automaker, plunged to a 54-year low on Merrill Lynch & Co.'s warning that ``bankruptcy is not impossible.'' Nucor Corp. led the steepest decline in steel shares since 2002 as concern grew that the auto slump will cut demand and the government said metals orders decreased. Peabody Energy Co., the largest U.S. coal producer, slid as European prices fell the most since 2005.

``Investor sentiment is clearly miserable right now,'' said Wayne Wilbanks, who oversees about $1.2 billion as chief investment officer of Wilbanks Smith & Thomas Asset Management in Norfolk, Virginia. ``A lot of this misery among investors is starting to get priced into the indices.''

The Dow lost 166.75 points, or 1.5 percent, to 11,215.51. The S&P 500 plunged 23.38, or 1.8 percent, to 1,261.53, extending its 2008 loss to 14 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 53.51, or 2.3 percent, to 2,251.46. More than five stocks fell for each that rose on the New York Stock Exchange.

Technology and consumer shares also helped fuel the market's retreat after a private report showed a bigger-than-forecast drop in jobs last month. The 30-stock Dow average extended its retreat from the October record to more than the 20 percent, the first time since 2002 the gauge has closed below the threshold that signals a so-called bear market.

The S&P 500 has dropped 19.4 percent from its October record, while the Nasdaq has lost 21 percent from a nearly six year high on Oct. 31.

Bear Market

GM has led the Dow's retreat into a bear market, slumping 74 percent since the 30-stock gauge's record of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9. Dow components Citigroup Inc., American International Group Inc. and Bank of America Corp. each tumbled more than 50 percent over the same period as losses and writedowns at the world's biggest financial institutions topped $400 billion following the collapse of the U.S. mortgage market.

The Dow experienced 11 bear markets before this one since 1962, according to Westport, Connecticut-based research and money-management firm Birinyi Associates Inc. Declines averaged 29 percent and lasted 322 days, Birinyi data show. The biggest was a 45 percent drop during the 694-day period from January 1973 to December 1974.

GM sank $1.77, or 15 percent, to $9.98 today, the lowest since September 1954. The automaker was cut to ``underperform'' from ``buy'' at Merrill on bankruptcy concerns. GM, battered by the slowest U.S. automotive market in 15 years, may need to raise as much as $15 billion, Merrill said.

Crude Rally

Crude oil for August delivery rose 2 percent to $143.74 a barrel at the close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange after the Energy Department said supplies fell 1.98 million barrels to 299.8 million in the week ended June 27, the lowest since January. Inventories were forecast to rise 500,000 barrels, according to the median of nine estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Futures touched a record $144.32 after the close of floor trading and have doubled in the past year.

Oil's jump helped drag down a measure of industrial shares in the S&P 500 by 3 percent to the lowest level since August 2006. FedEx Corp., the second-largest U.S. package-shipping company, dropped $1.67 to $74.70. Caterpillar Inc., the world's biggest maker of earthmoving equipment, declined $3.67 to $70.42.

``As long as oil is going higher every day, it's difficult to say that we will hit a bottom,'' Jack Ablin, who oversees $65 billion as chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank in Chicago, told Bloomberg Television.

Steel Slump

Nucor, the largest U.S.-based steel producer, slid $10.29, or 14 percent, to $61.94. U.S. Steel lost $21.95 to $153.40. The S&P 500 Steel Index tumbled 13 percent, the steepest drop since September 2002. The gauge is still up 2.7 percent this year.

Demand for primary metals dropped 2 percent in May, the Commerce Department said today. Bookings for iron and steel fell 1.7 percent. GM said yesterday it will cut North American production this quarter by about 12 percent after its June U.S. auto sales fell 18 percent.

Massey Energy, the fourth-biggest U.S. coal producer and the S&P 500's best performer this year, had the index's biggest fall today, losing $17.47, or 19 percent, to $74.87. Peabody, the largest, fell $7.99 to $77.90. Consol Energy Inc., the third- biggest, declined $16.38 to $95.57. A gauge of coal stocks in the S&P 500 dropped 13 percent today, trimming its 2008 advance to 28 percent.

Coal for delivery to Amsterdam, Rotterdam or Antwerp with settlement next year dropped $27.50, or 13 percent, to $190 a metric ton, according to ICAP Plc prices supplied to Bloomberg. That would be the biggest retreat compared with closing prices since March 2005. It jumped 36 percent from June 2 to yesterday's close.

`Hot Money'

``You're seeing some pretty smart investors who had ridden this cyclical commodity trade who are beginning to see the demand for this part of the market is going to decline,'' said Wilbanks. ``Those stocks have almost gone straight up, so you're going to have a correction and there's a lot of hot money in those stocks right now.''

Merrill Lynch & Co. lost $1.10 to $31.15 and Citigroup declined 29 cents to $16.84 after Oppenheimer & Co.'s Meredith Whitney reduced her second-quarter earnings estimates for the firms because of writedowns related to the bond-insurer downgrades and mortgage securities. The S&P 500 Financials Index lost 1.4 percent, extending its decline over the past year to 45 percent.

`Rockiest Road'

``It has certainly been about the rockiest road in decades for the financials,'' Shawn Kravetz, a portfolio manager at Esplanade Capital LLC in Boston, said in an interview on Bloomberg Radio. ``The question is what earnings will look like over the next few years. Until you can have a sense of that for some of these companies, they're just not companies we would choose to invest in.''

The S&P 500 Retailing Index of 29 chain stores and discounters lost 2.1 percent as the surge in oil and bigger-than- forecast decrease in jobs dragged down companies that rely on consumers' discretionary spending.

Home Depot Inc., the largest home-improvement chain, lost 69 cents to $22.52. Amazon.com Inc., the biggest Internet retailer, declined $2.18 to $71.44.

Technology shares in the S&P 500 fell 1.8 percent as a group. Apple Inc., maker of the iPhone, dropped $6.50 to $168.18. Research In Motion Ltd., producer of the rival Blackberry e-mail phone, retreated $7.07 to $116.20.

Jobs Concern

ADP Employer Services said the U.S. lost 79,000 jobs last month, almost four times the number forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The report, which doesn't include government jobs, spurred concern that tomorrow's Labor Department report will depict a worsening employment market.

Payrolls probably shrank by 60,000 workers as employers cut jobs for a sixth consecutive month, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg before the government jobs report.

Lehman's Rally

Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. climbed $1.40 to $22.36. The fourth-largest U.S. securities firm is increasing the stock portion of employee pay this year, a person with knowledge of the matter said, as part of an effort to save cash following losses from the credit-market contraction.

Apollo Group Inc. surged $8.52, or 18 percent, to $54.78 for the top gain in the S&P 500. The largest for-profit provider of college degrees reported fiscal third-quarter earnings that topped analysts' estimates after expanding into high school education.

SanDisk Corp. climbed $1.10, or 6.2 percent, to $18.72 for the S&P 500's fourth-best advance. ThinkPanmure analysts advised buying shares of the world's largest maker of flash-memory cards, saying memory prices may ``stabilize'' on demand from Samsung Electronics Co. and Apple.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in New York at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net.



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AMR, Cincinnati Financial, Nvidia, TranS1: U.S. Equity Preview

By Lynn Thomasson

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in U.S. markets tomorrow. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names, and prices are as of 5:45 p.m. in New York, unless stated otherwise.

AMR Corp. (AMR US): The parent of American Airlines will record second-quarter costs of about $1.3 billion to reduce the value of aircraft it will park and to pay severance to employees losing their jobs as it cuts back on flights, according to a U.S. regulatory filing. The shares dropped for a ninth consecutive day in regular trading, losing 4.7 percent to $4.62.

Cincinnati Financial Corp. (CINF US): The Ohio-based property insurer that is Fifth Third Bancorp's largest shareholder may be downgraded by Moody's Investors Service because of the decline in Cincinnati Financial's shares. The stock added 0.2 percent to $25.24 in regular trading.

Eli Lilly & Co. (LLY US): The world's biggest maker of psychiatric medicines lost an appeal to limit potential damages in a lawsuit filed by Canadian patients who claimed they developed diabetes after using its Zyprexa schizophrenia drug. The plaintiffs sought C$900 million ($890 million) in damages in their initial claim. Eli Lilly shares slipped less than 0.1 percent to $46.09 in regular trading.

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA US) tumbled 21 percent to $14.19. The second-biggest maker of computer-graphics chips cut its second- quarter revenue forecast because of a drop in demand, delayed development of new chips and price competition.

TranS1 Inc. (TSON US): The maker of medical devices to treat spinal diseases said second-quarter revenue may be as low as $5.9 million, less than its previous estimate of $6.3 to $6.5 million. The shares increased 1.8 percent to $14.25 in regular trading.

To contact the reporter on this story: Lynn Thomasson in New York at lthomasson@bloomberg.net.



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G8 Meetings in Japan to Focus on Global Economy, Climate Change

Canadian Economy | Written by CEP News | Jul 02 08 18:03 GMT | (CEP News) Ottawa - Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper heads to Japan this weekend for a meeting of G8 leaders that will focus on the global economy, climate change and development in Africa.

Canadian government officials told reporters Wednesday that fallout from last summer's global credit market meltdown will figure into the talks. The subprime mortgage issues in the U.S. are largely under control, but financial market turbulence continues to be a concern, officials said.

Leaders are also expected to concentrate on the economic problems brought on by soaring prices for oil and basic food products.

Canada goes into the meetings positive about the long-term resilience of the economies of the G8 countries, government officials told reporters.

Harper has also scheduled bilateral talks with senior Japanese government officials to look for ways to enhance the already-significant trade links between the two countries, the officials said.

By Geoff Matthews, gmatthews@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it , edited by Stephen Huebl, shuebl@economicnews.caThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it

CEP Newswires - CEP News © 2008. All Rights Reserved. www.economicnews.ca





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Factory Orders Up 0.6% in May, High Prices May Overstate Spending

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Wachovia Corporation | Jul 02 08 17:11 GMT |

Orders for new goods at U.S. factories climbed 0.6 percent in May. This marks the third consecutive monthly gain, but the increase may have more to do with surging oil prices than a resilient economy. With non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft off 0.4 percent, this report does not show signs of strong business investment in Q2.

Prices Underpin Nondurable Orders; Durable Orders Relatively Flat

Petroleum and coal products comprise more than a quarter of all nondurable goods orders. Surging oil prices over the past few months effectively increased the value of orders not only in this category, but also in feed-through areas like chemical products (fertilizer) as well as plastic and rubber products, where natural gas and oil are primary input costs.

Meanwhile durable goods orders were dead-even for the month, suggesting that orders on a volume (rather than price) basis are relatively flat.

With recent price increases, nondurable goods orders have taken the lion's share of the overall factory orders report, eclipsing durable goods which has been the dominant component since the series was first stated on a NAICS basis in 1992.

The point here is that in an environment of rapidly rising prices, an increase in orders can have as much or more to do with higher prices than with an increase in overall demand from businesses. While positive, the factory orders report should not necessarily signal a return of strong growth in business spending.

Non-Defense Capital Goods Orders Ex-Aircraft

Non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft remains a good indicator of core business spending. After strong growth in April, there was a bit of a pullback here in May as orders were down 0.4 percent, but that turned out to be less than the 0.8 percent decline initially reported in last week's durable goods report. Businesses are carefully scaling back spending in an economic environment that seems indecisive about its direction.

Given the fact that the ISM purchasing managers' index for manufacturing came in just below the breakeven 50 level in May, this modest decline in non-defense capital goods orders ex-aircraft does not come as a complete surprise.

Earlier this week the ISM reported a number above the breakeven level for the first time since January. This suggests to us that our call for weak business spending in the third quarter is still on track.

This report is just the latest evidence that we are in an environment of painfully slow growth, but growth nonetheless. Like a wrestler that refuses to be pinned, the U.S. economy continues to sidestep the technical definition of a recession while eking out painfully thin economic growth.

Wachovia Corporation
http://www.wachovia.com

Disclaimer: The information and opinions herein are for general information use only. Wachovia Corporation and its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., do not guarantee their accuracy or completeness, nor does Wachovia Corporation or any of its affiliates, including Wachovia Bank, N.A., assume any liability for any loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice, are for general information only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sales of any security or any foreign exchange transaction, or as personalized investment advice. Securities and foreign exchange transactions are not FDIC-insured, are not bank-guaranteed, and may lose value.





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Economic Calendar Eco Data 7/3/08

Eco Data 7/3/08

GMT Ccy Events Actual Consensus Previous Revised
01:30AUDAustralia Trade balance (aud) May
-900M-957M
01:30 AUD Australia Export M/M May
N/A 5.80%
01:30 AUD Australia Import M/M May
N/A -2.20%
05:45 CHF Swiss CPI M/M Jun
0.30% 0.80%
05:45 CHF Swiss CPI Y/Y Jun
3.10% 2.90%
07:55 EUR Germany Services PMI Jun
53.3 53.3
08:00 EUR Eurozone Services PMI Jun
49.5 49.5
08:30 GBP U.K. Services PMI Jun
49.5 49.8
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail sales M/M May
0.50% -0.60% -0.70%
09:00 EUR Eurozone Retail sales Y/Y May
-0.70% -2.90% -3.00%
11:45 EUR ECB rate decision Jul
4.25% 4.00%
12:30 EUR ECB press conference



12:30 USD U.S. Jobless claims
N/A 384K
12:30 USD U.S. Non-farm payrolls Jun
-60.0K -49.0K
12:30 USD U.S. Unemployment rate Jun
5.40% 5.50%
12:30 USD U.S. Avg. hourly earnings M/M Jun
0.30% 0.30%
12:30 USD U.S. Avg. hourly earnings Y/Y Jun
3.40% 3.50%
14:00 USD U.S. ISM non-manufacturing Jun
51 51.7

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