By Ewa Krukowska
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Poland's zloty declined against the euro yesterday, paring a weekly advance, on concern Europe's economic slowdown will deepen, curbing investor appetite for the region's currencies. The Czech koruna fell.
The zloty snapped three weeks of losses versus Europe's single currency, making it the third-best performer among emerging-market currencies. Industrial orders in the euro area fell the most in more than six years in June, the European Union's statistics office in Luxembourg said yesterday. The data pushed the euro lower against the dollar.
``The fall of the euro and concerns that Europe's growth prospects may worsen caused a decline in the zloty,'' said Grzegorz Maliszewski, an economist at Bank Millennium in Warsaw. This `` prompted investors to take profit on earlier gains,'' he added.
The zloty was at 3.3051 per euro in Warsaw, from 3.3339 on Aug. 15, a gain of 0.9 percent. It may ``strengthen toward 3.20 at the end of this year,'' Maliszewski forecast.
Poland's Monetary Policy Council rejected a quarter-point increase in the benchmark interest rate last month because a majority of rate setters said a strong zloty and an expected economic slowdown should help curb inflation, according to the minutes of the meeting released Aug. 21.
Policy makers will probably leave the main rate unchanged at 6 percent next week, according to a Bloomberg survey of 15 economists.
Carry Trades
Hungary's forint posted the biggest weekly advance in two months, strengthening 2.3 percent to 233.89 per euro.
The forint is supported by bets that its interest-rate advantage over the euro area will continue to attract carry trades, where investors borrow cheaply in currencies with lower rates and invest in higher-yielding assets elsewhere.
It may advance to 225 per euro by the end of the year because the central bank will probably keep rates unchanged at 8.5 percent as the European Central Bank signals lower borrowing costs to stimulate growth, said Ulrich Leuchtmann, an analyst at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt.
The Turkish lira rose for a second week, strengthening to 1.1866 per dollar, from 1.1873 on Aug 15.
The lira is the best emerging-market performer this quarter as policy makers raised the key interest rate to 16.75 percent, the highest among major developing economies.
In other trading, the Czech koruna snapped four weeks of losses, gaining to 24.422 per euro, from 24.536 on Aug. 15. The Romanian leu rose 0.6 percent on the week, to 3.5283, from 3.5499. The Slovak koruna was little changed at 30.316 per euro.
To contact the reporter on this story: Ewa Krukowska in Warsaw at ekrukowska@bloomberg.net;
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Sunday, August 24, 2008
Cathay Life Buys Taipei Building From Gala TV for $96 Million
By Chinmei Sung
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Life Insurance Co., Taiwan's biggest life insurer, bought a building in Neihu Technology Park in Taipei for NT$3 billion ($96 million), its second property investment in the island's capital this year.
Cathay Life paid NT$410,000 per ping for the headquarters of Taiwan's Gala Television Corp., the Taipei-based insurer said in a stock exchange filing through parent Cathay Financial Holding Co., Taiwan's biggest financial services company by market value, yesterday.
The value per ping was a record for the Neihu district, the Economic Daily News reported today. A ping, the standard area measure for real estate in Taiwan, equals 3.3 square meters, or about 36 square feet.
Cathay Life won a tender for 2,629 square meters of land in Taipei's downtown with a NT$2.39 billion bid last month.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Cathay Life Insurance Co., Taiwan's biggest life insurer, bought a building in Neihu Technology Park in Taipei for NT$3 billion ($96 million), its second property investment in the island's capital this year.
Cathay Life paid NT$410,000 per ping for the headquarters of Taiwan's Gala Television Corp., the Taipei-based insurer said in a stock exchange filing through parent Cathay Financial Holding Co., Taiwan's biggest financial services company by market value, yesterday.
The value per ping was a record for the Neihu district, the Economic Daily News reported today. A ping, the standard area measure for real estate in Taiwan, equals 3.3 square meters, or about 36 square feet.
Cathay Life won a tender for 2,629 square meters of land in Taipei's downtown with a NT$2.39 billion bid last month.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
Taishin Financial Charges Lawmaker Chou With Libel, Obstruction
By Chinmei Sung
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Taishin Financial Holding Co., whose shareholders include billionaire George Soros, has filed civil and criminal charges against legislator Chou Yi for alleging its 2005 bid for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank was illegal.
Complaints of libel and obstruction of credit were filed yesterday with the Taipei District Court, Taishin said in a stock exchange filing after market closed yesterday. The company denies all allegations made by Chou, it said in the statement.
Taishin is seeking a public apology from Chou, the Economic Daily News reported today, citing Lin Keh-Hsiao, president of the Taipei-based financial company.
Chou didn't return calls made to his mobile phone today seeking comment.
Taishin lost 15 percent of its market value and fell to record lows in five days of declines through Aug. 21 amid reports that regulators are investigating possible irregularities in financial mergers, including the takeover of Chang Hwa Commercial.
Taiwan's former President Chen Shui-bian is the subject of a corruption probe as regulators examine takeovers, seeking possible links to Chen and his family.
Taishin, Taiwan's third-worst-performing financial stock this year, rose 4.7 percent to NT$9.79 yesterday in Taipei. UBS AG cut its rating on the stock to ``sell'' from ``neutral'' on political risks and a likely failure of the Chang Hwa deal.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Taishin Financial Holding Co., whose shareholders include billionaire George Soros, has filed civil and criminal charges against legislator Chou Yi for alleging its 2005 bid for Chang Hwa Commercial Bank was illegal.
Complaints of libel and obstruction of credit were filed yesterday with the Taipei District Court, Taishin said in a stock exchange filing after market closed yesterday. The company denies all allegations made by Chou, it said in the statement.
Taishin is seeking a public apology from Chou, the Economic Daily News reported today, citing Lin Keh-Hsiao, president of the Taipei-based financial company.
Chou didn't return calls made to his mobile phone today seeking comment.
Taishin lost 15 percent of its market value and fell to record lows in five days of declines through Aug. 21 amid reports that regulators are investigating possible irregularities in financial mergers, including the takeover of Chang Hwa Commercial.
Taiwan's former President Chen Shui-bian is the subject of a corruption probe as regulators examine takeovers, seeking possible links to Chen and his family.
Taishin, Taiwan's third-worst-performing financial stock this year, rose 4.7 percent to NT$9.79 yesterday in Taipei. UBS AG cut its rating on the stock to ``sell'' from ``neutral'' on political risks and a likely failure of the Chang Hwa deal.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chinmei Sung in Taipei at csung4@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
NBA Seeks to Tap China Popularity in Tsingtao Beer Partnership
By Wing-Gar Cheng
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The National Basketball Association signed a multiyear sponsorship agreement with Tsingtao Brewery Co. in which China's largest brewer will fund sports and dance competitions related to the league in the most populous nation.
Tsingtao, China's biggest beer company by sales, will sponsor a nationwide search for an NBA China Dance Team, help finance basketball tours in the country and assist in an All- Star Game balloting system, the NBA said in a statement today. Terms weren't disclosed.
``Through Tsingtao's extensive retail network and presence in China, we will be bringing entertaining basketball experiences to fans,'' NBA Commissioner David Stern said in the statement.
The NBA last month opened two merchandise stores in downtown Beijing -- the first of as many as 1,000 planned -- to tap spiraling interest in the league fueled by the success of Houston Rockets center Yao Ming. The NBA is the most-watched sports league in China and now has 21 marketing partnerships in the country.
Tsingtao said publicity from sponsoring the Beijing Games boosted demand for its products in the first half of 2008. Basketball has as many as 300 million players in China, according to the sport's national association.
``The NBA's global appeal amongst young fans and consumers will help Tsingtao Beer further globalize its brand,'' Tsingtao Chairman Jin Zhiguo said in the statement.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wing-Gar Cheng in Beijing at wgcheng@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The National Basketball Association signed a multiyear sponsorship agreement with Tsingtao Brewery Co. in which China's largest brewer will fund sports and dance competitions related to the league in the most populous nation.
Tsingtao, China's biggest beer company by sales, will sponsor a nationwide search for an NBA China Dance Team, help finance basketball tours in the country and assist in an All- Star Game balloting system, the NBA said in a statement today. Terms weren't disclosed.
``Through Tsingtao's extensive retail network and presence in China, we will be bringing entertaining basketball experiences to fans,'' NBA Commissioner David Stern said in the statement.
The NBA last month opened two merchandise stores in downtown Beijing -- the first of as many as 1,000 planned -- to tap spiraling interest in the league fueled by the success of Houston Rockets center Yao Ming. The NBA is the most-watched sports league in China and now has 21 marketing partnerships in the country.
Tsingtao said publicity from sponsoring the Beijing Games boosted demand for its products in the first half of 2008. Basketball has as many as 300 million players in China, according to the sport's national association.
``The NBA's global appeal amongst young fans and consumers will help Tsingtao Beer further globalize its brand,'' Tsingtao Chairman Jin Zhiguo said in the statement.
To contact the reporter on this story: Wing-Gar Cheng in Beijing at wgcheng@bloomberg.net.
Read more...
Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade
By Chan Tien Hin
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade.
``Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.
Crude oil futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil slid more than $6 a barrel yesterday, falling the most in percentage terms since December 2004, as the rising dollar curbed demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and BP Plc restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through the former Soviet republic of Georgia to Turkey.
Rogers said Aug. 21 in Bangkok that declines in commodity prices from record highs represented a temporary reversal in a bull market that will last for several years.
David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said the rise in the crude oil price ``was a recognition'' of the growing demand of emerging economies like China and India.
``Those countries will continue with their development process and continue to outpace global growth,'' he said.
Dollar Gains
Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest drop in 28 years.
Crude-oil futures for October delivery fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, rising tension between the U.S. and Russia, the world's second-biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, and falling gasoline stockpiles.
Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week, 63 percent expected prices to increase.
`` I can certainly see crude continuing above $100 a barrel for the longer term,'' Cohen said. ``The fundamentals of supply and demand should be supportive'' of prices.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur thchan@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade.
``Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.
Crude oil futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil slid more than $6 a barrel yesterday, falling the most in percentage terms since December 2004, as the rising dollar curbed demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and BP Plc restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through the former Soviet republic of Georgia to Turkey.
Rogers said Aug. 21 in Bangkok that declines in commodity prices from record highs represented a temporary reversal in a bull market that will last for several years.
David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said the rise in the crude oil price ``was a recognition'' of the growing demand of emerging economies like China and India.
``Those countries will continue with their development process and continue to outpace global growth,'' he said.
Dollar Gains
Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest drop in 28 years.
Crude-oil futures for October delivery fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, rising tension between the U.S. and Russia, the world's second-biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, and falling gasoline stockpiles.
Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week, 63 percent expected prices to increase.
`` I can certainly see crude continuing above $100 a barrel for the longer term,'' Cohen said. ``The fundamentals of supply and demand should be supportive'' of prices.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur thchan@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Canada's Dollar Posts Second Weekly Gain as Commodities Rebound
By Chris Fournier
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar gained for a second consecutive week, boosted by a rebound in the price of commodities including crude oil and gold.
``It's been a good week for commodities and the Canadian dollar has certainly benefited from that,'' said Stefane Marion, assistant chief economist at National Bank Financial in Montreal. ``We've had a significant rebound in prices.''
The currency of Canada, which relies on commodities for about half its export revenue, appreciated 1.2 percent since Aug. 15 against its U.S. counterpart. It gained against all of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies in that period except for the South African rand.
The loonie, named after the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, rose 0.4 percent to C$1.047 per U.S. dollar yesterday in Toronto, from C$1.0592 on Aug. 15. One Canadian dollar buys 95.51 U.S. cents.
The currency surged 17 percent in 2007 as commodity prices soared. The rally stalled this year as the economy of the U.S., the nation's largest trading partner, cooled and as oil fell from the record high of $147.27 a barrel set July 11. The Canadian currency touched a year-low C$1.0728 on Aug. 12.
``I wonder if there's been a bit of sober second though when you see how far the Canadian dollar had fallen in such a short time span,'' said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``It kicked in when oil was appreciating and failed to respond as sharply when oil was depreciating.''
Gold, Silver
Crude oil climbed $6.20 to $121.18 on Aug. 21 before erasing that advance yesterday. It still posted its first weekly price increase since the start of August. Gold, Silver and copper also gained this week.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose for four straight sessions before paring gains yesterday. The index posted its first weekly advance in three, and the biggest since the five days ended June 6.
The U.S. dollar has risen against all of the 16 other major currencies this month on speculation the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading to other industrialized countries.
Lascelles predicts the dollar will trade at C$1.099 against its U.S. counterpart by year-end as commodity markets weaken, while Marion forecasts the currency slumping to C$1.12. The loonie will slip to C$1.10 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2009, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
`Not so Bearish'
June wholesale sales advanced 2 percent, Statistics Canada said Aug. 19, almost triple the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent, while consumer prices increased 0.3 percent from June, less than economists' 0.4 percent forecast.
``Some of the underlying fundamentals for Canada are pretty good,'' said John Rothfield, senior currency strategist at Banc of America Securities LLC in San Francisco. ``The market's not so bearish anymore on how many rate cuts the Bank of Canada's got to do.''
The loonie will approach parity by the end of the year, Rothfield forecasts. He said ``we have C$1.03 and C$1.02 next couple of quarters.''
The central bank's policy makers are scheduled to meet on Sept. 3, when they will leave the key rate unchanged at 3 percent, according to all seven economists polled by Bloomberg.
The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond rose 13 basis points, or 0.138 percentage point, to 2.94 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 decreased 27 cents to C$99.59. The 10-year bond's yield increased 5 basis points to 3.62 percent this week.
Bond Yield Outlook
The two-year bond's yield will rise to 3.09 percent by the end of this year, while the 10-year bond's yield will increase to 3.86 percent, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The yield advantage of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note compared with similar-maturity Canadian government bonds was 25 basis points, down from 36 basis points on Aug. 11. The Canadian 10-year bond yielded 36 basis points more than its U.S. counterpart on Jan. 22.
Canadian government bonds have returned 4.3 percent in 2008, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index statistics. U.S. Treasuries have returned 3.6 percent this year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- The Canadian dollar gained for a second consecutive week, boosted by a rebound in the price of commodities including crude oil and gold.
``It's been a good week for commodities and the Canadian dollar has certainly benefited from that,'' said Stefane Marion, assistant chief economist at National Bank Financial in Montreal. ``We've had a significant rebound in prices.''
The currency of Canada, which relies on commodities for about half its export revenue, appreciated 1.2 percent since Aug. 15 against its U.S. counterpart. It gained against all of the world's 16 most actively traded currencies in that period except for the South African rand.
The loonie, named after the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, rose 0.4 percent to C$1.047 per U.S. dollar yesterday in Toronto, from C$1.0592 on Aug. 15. One Canadian dollar buys 95.51 U.S. cents.
The currency surged 17 percent in 2007 as commodity prices soared. The rally stalled this year as the economy of the U.S., the nation's largest trading partner, cooled and as oil fell from the record high of $147.27 a barrel set July 11. The Canadian currency touched a year-low C$1.0728 on Aug. 12.
``I wonder if there's been a bit of sober second though when you see how far the Canadian dollar had fallen in such a short time span,'' said Eric Lascelles, chief economist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``It kicked in when oil was appreciating and failed to respond as sharply when oil was depreciating.''
Gold, Silver
Crude oil climbed $6.20 to $121.18 on Aug. 21 before erasing that advance yesterday. It still posted its first weekly price increase since the start of August. Gold, Silver and copper also gained this week.
The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities rose for four straight sessions before paring gains yesterday. The index posted its first weekly advance in three, and the biggest since the five days ended June 6.
The U.S. dollar has risen against all of the 16 other major currencies this month on speculation the U.S. economic slowdown is spreading to other industrialized countries.
Lascelles predicts the dollar will trade at C$1.099 against its U.S. counterpart by year-end as commodity markets weaken, while Marion forecasts the currency slumping to C$1.12. The loonie will slip to C$1.10 against the U.S. dollar by the end of 2009, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
`Not so Bearish'
June wholesale sales advanced 2 percent, Statistics Canada said Aug. 19, almost triple the median forecast of economists in a Bloomberg survey. Retail sales rose 0.5 percent, while consumer prices increased 0.3 percent from June, less than economists' 0.4 percent forecast.
``Some of the underlying fundamentals for Canada are pretty good,'' said John Rothfield, senior currency strategist at Banc of America Securities LLC in San Francisco. ``The market's not so bearish anymore on how many rate cuts the Bank of Canada's got to do.''
The loonie will approach parity by the end of the year, Rothfield forecasts. He said ``we have C$1.03 and C$1.02 next couple of quarters.''
The central bank's policy makers are scheduled to meet on Sept. 3, when they will leave the key rate unchanged at 3 percent, according to all seven economists polled by Bloomberg.
The yield on the two-year Canadian government bond rose 13 basis points, or 0.138 percentage point, to 2.94 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 decreased 27 cents to C$99.59. The 10-year bond's yield increased 5 basis points to 3.62 percent this week.
Bond Yield Outlook
The two-year bond's yield will rise to 3.09 percent by the end of this year, while the 10-year bond's yield will increase to 3.86 percent, according to the median forecasts of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.
The yield advantage of the 10-year U.S. Treasury note compared with similar-maturity Canadian government bonds was 25 basis points, down from 36 basis points on Aug. 11. The Canadian 10-year bond yielded 36 basis points more than its U.S. counterpart on Jan. 22.
Canadian government bonds have returned 4.3 percent in 2008, according to Merrill Lynch & Co. index statistics. U.S. Treasuries have returned 3.6 percent this year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Weekly Review and Outlook Dollar Pullback's Ended Before It's Begun?
Read more...
Economic Calendar Summary 8/25 - 8/29
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Saturday, August 23, 2008
Indonesia's Listrik Negara Loss Widens on Fuel Costs
By Berni Moestafa
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Indonesia's state-owned power producer, said its first-half net loss widened to 1 trillion rupiah ($109 million) from 944 billion rupiah as a doubling of oil prices raised fuel expenses.
First-half revenue increased to 79 trillion rupiah from 52 trillion rupiah a year earlier, the power company said in a statement published in the Bisnis Indonesia newspaper today.
Fuel and lubricant costs jumped to 53 trillion rupiah from 29 trillion rupiah, Listrik Negara said. Surging oil prices eroded the company's margins as crude oil futures jumped 97 percent in the 12 months through June 30.
To contact the reporter on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta at bmoestafa@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara, Indonesia's state-owned power producer, said its first-half net loss widened to 1 trillion rupiah ($109 million) from 944 billion rupiah as a doubling of oil prices raised fuel expenses.
First-half revenue increased to 79 trillion rupiah from 52 trillion rupiah a year earlier, the power company said in a statement published in the Bisnis Indonesia newspaper today.
Fuel and lubricant costs jumped to 53 trillion rupiah from 29 trillion rupiah, Listrik Negara said. Surging oil prices eroded the company's margins as crude oil futures jumped 97 percent in the 12 months through June 30.
To contact the reporter on this story: Berni Moestafa in Jakarta at bmoestafa@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Jim Rogers Says Oil Price Rise to Continue for Decade
By Chan Tien Hin
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade.
``Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.
Crude oil futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil slid more than $6 a barrel yesterday, falling the most in percentage terms since December 2004, as the rising dollar curbed demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and BP Plc restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through the former Soviet republic of Georgia to Turkey.
Rogers said Aug. 21 in Bangkok that declines in commodity prices from record highs represented a temporary reverse in a bull market that will last for several years.
David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said the rise in the crude oil price ``was a recognition'' of the growing demand of emerging economies like China and India.
``Those countries will continue with their development process and continue to outpace global growth,'' he said.
Dollar Gains
Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest drop in 28 years.
Crude-oil futures for October delivery fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, rising tension between the U.S. and Russia, the world's second-biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, and falling gasoline stockpiles.
Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week, 63 percent expected prices to increase.
`` I can certainly see crude continuing above $100 a barrel for the longer term,'' Cohen said. ``The fundamentals of supply and demand should be supportive'' of prices.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur thchan@bloomberg.net
Read more...
Aug. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Jim Rogers, who in April 2006 correctly forecast the oil price would reach $100 a barrel and gold $1,000 an ounce, said he expects oil to continue to increase over the next decade.
``Over the course of time, it's a bull market,'' the chairman of Rogers Holdings said today after an investor conference in Kuala Lumpur. While the oil price could fall to $75 or rise to $175, the market will continue to increase over the next 10 years, he said.
Crude oil futures have dropped 22 percent since touching $147.27 a barrel on July 11, the highest since trading began in 1983. Oil slid more than $6 a barrel yesterday, falling the most in percentage terms since December 2004, as the rising dollar curbed demand for commodities as an inflation hedge and BP Plc restored shipments on a Caspian Sea pipeline through the former Soviet republic of Georgia to Turkey.
Rogers said Aug. 21 in Bangkok that declines in commodity prices from record highs represented a temporary reverse in a bull market that will last for several years.
David Cohen, director of Asian forecasting at Action Economics in Singapore, said the rise in the crude oil price ``was a recognition'' of the growing demand of emerging economies like China and India.
``Those countries will continue with their development process and continue to outpace global growth,'' he said.
Dollar Gains
Soybeans, copper, platinum and crude oil have dropped from all-time highs after a rally in the dollar curbed demand for raw materials as a hedge against inflation and concerns increased that economic growth will slow. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index plunged 10 percent in July, the biggest drop in 28 years.
Crude-oil futures for October delivery fell $6.59, or 5.4 percent, to $114.59 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday. Crude oil may rise next week because of a weakening dollar, rising tension between the U.S. and Russia, the world's second-biggest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, and falling gasoline stockpiles.
Sixteen of 29 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 55 percent, said prices will increase through Aug. 29. Seven of the respondents, or 24 percent, said oil will be little changed and six said there would be a drop in prices. Last week, 63 percent expected prices to increase.
`` I can certainly see crude continuing above $100 a barrel for the longer term,'' Cohen said. ``The fundamentals of supply and demand should be supportive'' of prices.
To contact the reporter on this story: Chan Tien Hin in Kuala Lumpur thchan@bloomberg.net
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