Economic Calendar

Friday, October 9, 2009

Singapore Economy Probably Expanded a Second Quarter

By Shamim Adam

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Singapore’s economy probably expanded for a second consecutive quarter as the global recession eased, adding to evidence of a regional recovery that has prompted policy makers to consider ending stimulus measures.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 14.5 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after climbing 20.7 percent between April and June, according to the median estimate of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The trade ministry will release the data at 8 a.m. on Oct. 12.

Singapore’s benchmark stock index has surged 51 percent this year and property prices have climbed as the nation emerges from its worst recession since independence in 1965. The central bank is forecast by economists to delay any change in its currency policy until April, while the government is due to say next week if it will keep paying companies to retain workers.

“As the recovery in the economy and property market continues, the risk of sector-specific tightening measures or removal of accommodation is growing,” said Edward Teather, an economist at UBS AG in Singapore. “The debate on stimulus withdrawal is likely to hot up.”

Asia is leading the world’s recovery from its deepest recession since the Great Depression after policy makers slashed interest rates to unprecedented lows and governments announced more than $950 billion of stimulus measures. The International Monetary Fund predicts gross domestic product in developing Asia will expand at more than twice the pace of advanced economies next year.

Australia’s Move

Australia this week became the first among the Group of 20 nations to raise borrowing costs since the height of the global financial crisis. Bank of Korea Governor Lee Seong Tae said last month he may raise borrowing costs to stem rising property prices in an economy that expanded at the fastest pace in almost six years in the second quarter.

The Singapore government predicts the economy will shrink 4 percent to 6 percent in 2009. Economists at UBS, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and DBS Group Holdings Ltd. are more optimistic, with estimates that exceed the government’s expectations. UBS forecasts a 1.5 percent decline this year, while Goldman Sachs expects a contraction of 1.8 percent.

Singapore’s $182 billion economy expanded 0.5 percent in the three months ended September from a year earlier, growing for the first time in a year, according to a Bloomberg survey of 16 economists.

Pharmaceuticals

Industrial output climbed in the first two months of last quarter, and the island’s exports fell the least in almost a year in August, helped by gains in pharmaceutical shipments. Manufacturing accounts for about a quarter of the Southeast Asian nation’s economy.

The island’s private residential property prices rose last quarter for the first time in more than a year. The government said last month it would introduce new measures to prevent excessive price swings in the property market following signs that speculative home buying may be on the rise.

The central bank isn’t likely to be in a hurry to change its currency stance in its twice-yearly policy review to be released Oct. 12, a Bloomberg survey of 12 economists showed.

The Monetary Authority of Singapore in April adjusted the trading range for the island’s dollar against an undisclosed trade-weighted basket of currencies, a move that economists say was a de facto devaluation of the currency. It may next shift the policy stance in April, analysts say.

“To curb the risks of asset-price inflation, the government has already introduced some property cooling measures, rather than necessitating a monetary policy response,” said Enoch Fung, an economist at Goldman Sachs in Hong Kong. “We believe the MAS can afford to wait until April 2010 in order to have better visibility on the global growth outlook.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Shamim Adam in Singapore at sadam2@bloomberg.net





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Oil Pares Weekly Gain as Bernanke Says Fed May Tighten Policy

By Yee Kai Pin and Ben Sharples

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell in New York, paring its weekly gain, as the dollar climbed after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said monetary policy may be tightened once the economic outlook has “improved sufficiently.”

Oil traded near $71 a barrel as the U.S. currency rose against the yen and the euro, damping the investment appeal of commodities including gold. Prices rallied 3 percent yesterday, the most since Sept. 30, after the dollar declined and the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits dropped.

Bernanke’s remarks have had “a small impact on the immediate market,” said Ken Hasegawa, a commodity derivatives sales manager at broker Newedge in Tokyo. “It shows policy is not decided yet. The trend of the dollar will continue” to give direction to oil prices, he said.

Crude oil for November delivery fell as much as 66 cents, or 0.9 percent, to $71.03 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract was at $71.24 at 12:08 p.m. Singapore time. Yesterday, it rose $2.12 to settle at $71.69. Futures are poised to gain 2 percent this week.

The dollar strengthened to 89.11 yen as of 12:37 p.m. in Tokyo from 88.39 in New York. The U.S. currency rose to $1.4722 per euro from $1.4794 after Bernanke’s comments.

“The pullback this morning is pretty marginal,” said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. “Coming off the jump last night I wouldn’t read too much into that. At this point, the overall consumption picture in the U.S. remains subdued.”

Policy Change

The Fed chairman, in prepared remarks at a Board of Governors conference late yesterday in Washington, didn’t say when the central bank may tighten monetary policy.

The Federal Open Market Committee reiterated its pledge last month to keep the benchmark lending rate near zero “for an extended period” to boost a weak recovery that has yet to create jobs. U.S. unemployment rose to 9.8 percent last month, the worst since 1983.

Oil yesterday touched $72.55 a barrel, the highest in almost three weeks, after Labor Department data showed initial unemployment benefit applications fell to the lowest since January. This fanned optimism over the prospects for a recovery in energy consumption.

“Gradually improving demand conditions amid continued supply tightness should accelerate the erosion of the currently large inventory overhang, thereby starting to provide the momentum required to break to the upside of the current trading range,” analysts at Barclays Capital, led by Gayle Berry, said in a report. “We still expect prices to transition gradually to $70-$80 over the next month or so.”

Fuel Stockpiles

U.S. distillate fuel inventories rose 679,000 barrels to 171.8 million last week, an Energy Department report showed Oct. 7. Stockpiles, at their highest since January 1983, were estimated to have declined 400,000 barrels, based on a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Gasoline inventories climbed 2.94 million barrels to 214.4 million as refinery output increased.

“The factors driving the market will be decreasing stockpiles and also increasing demand with an economic recovery,” said Hasegawa at Newedge. Until then, oil prices “cannot escape from this narrow range.”

Brent crude oil for November settlement dropped as much as 71 cents, or 1 percent, to $69.06 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract was at $69.23 at 12:03 p.m. in Singapore. Yesterday, it rose 3.8 percent to end the session at $69.77, the biggest gain since Sept. 30.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yee Kai Pin in Singapore at kyee13@bloomberg.net; Ben Sharples in Melbourne at bsharples@bloomberg.net





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Bumi Plans Purchases to Be Indonesian Mine ‘Champion’

By Naila Firdausi

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- PT Bumi Resources, Indonesia’s biggest coal company, plans to acquire mines in the country and may include China Investment Corp. as a partner after borrowing $1.9 billion from the sovereign wealth fund last month.

“Anything less than $400 million to $500 million shouldn’t make sense to us unless it’s very strategic,” said Nalinkant Rathod, president director of PT Bakrie & Brothers, Bumi’s biggest shareholder and a member of the coal company’s board. Bumi and CIC “signed a strategic partnership agreement where in all our investments above $75 million we show to them first,” and potential targets will be discussed with the Chinese fund this month, he said in an interview in Singapore yesterday.

China’s $297.5 billion fund bought debt from the Jakarta- based coal producer and is increasing investments in resources companies to gain access to the raw materials it needs to fuel the country’s growth. Bumi’s shares rose for the first time in four days today, paring a decline since the Sept. 23 announcement prompted by concerns the deal, which gives CIC a 19 percent return, is too expensive.

The agreement “put Bumi at high leverage level,” said Winston Sual, who helps manage $233 million at PT Panin Asset Management in Jakarta, which doesn’t include Bumi in its mutual funds. “I don’t see the urgency in getting this debt.”

Refinancing Debt

Bumi has said $1.7 billion of the funds will be used to refinance debt and the rest as working capital.

Though higher interest costs will hurt Bumi’s earnings in the short term, the funding arrangement and partnership with CIC would fund acquisitions, said Rathod, 58, who is also a member of Bumi’s board of commissioners.

“Sometimes you sacrifice immediate profitability for liquidity and future growth,” he said. “We want to be the national mining champion for Indonesia.”

Bumi shares rose as much as 2.8 percent to 2,800 rupiah in Jakarta trading today, the first gain in four days. The stock was at 2,750 rupiah at 9:58 a.m. local time. Bumi has dropped 18 percent since the CIC agreement was announced.

“Investors expecting strong short-term earnings will likely be disappointed,” Daisy Suryo, Singapore-based analyst at Bank of America Corp’s Merrill Lynch unit, wrote in a note dated yesterday after meeting Bumi. “Interested investors will need to give Bumi the benefit of the doubt -- i.e., believe in its ability to achieve lucrative M&A deals.”

Zinc, Copper, Gold

The company is already a significant coal producer and plans to extract zinc, copper, lead and gold, Rathod said. Bumi is currently looking at “one or two” assets and BHP Billiton Ltd.’s Maruwai coal project in Indonesia is “interesting,” said Dileep Srivastava, the company’s head of investor relations, without elaborating on whether it expressed interest in bidding.

Bumi, which became Indonesia’s biggest coal producer following acquisitions of PT Arutmin Indonesia in 2001 and PT Kaltim Prima Coal in 2003, announced in January it would buy stakes in three companies for $565 million. Bumi said the acquisitions will help the company double its coal output by 2012.

The acquisitions prompted investigations by Indonesia’s capital market regulator on concern Bumi paid too much. Bumi renegotiated the price of PT Fajar Bumi Sakti, which has a coal concession. Stakes purchases in mining contractor PT Darma Henwa and PT Pendopo Energi Batubara, a non-producing miner, were fairly valued, the regulator said in June.

To contact the reporter on this story: Naila Firdausi in Jakarta at nfirdausi@bloomberg.net.





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Power-Station Coal May Rise to $100 a Ton in 2010, Bumi Says

By Dinakar Sethuraman

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Power-station coal prices may climb by more than 40 percent in 2010 from current levels as a global economic recovery boosts demand from power plants and steel producers, an official from PT Bumi Resources said.

Benchmark thermal coal grades, those burnt by Japanese utilities, may rise to about $100 a metric ton in the fourth quarter of 2010, led by economic growth in Asia and under- investment in coal capacity, said Dileep Srivastava, senior vice president for investor relations at Bumi. That compares with $69.85 a metric ton in the week ended Oct. 2 at Australia’s Newcastle port, globalCOAL NEWC Index shows.

“Demand for coal in China, India and Indonesia will be sustained at higher levels, while demand should normalize” in developed countries, Srivastava said in Singapore yesterday. China imported a record 48 million tons in the first six months, customs figures show.

Spot prices at Newcastle reached a record $194.79 a ton in July last year, before the global recession cut output and electricity demand. Coal for delivery to Rotterdam with settlement next year rose to $83.75 a ton yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg, compared with this year’s low of $51.75 on March 12.

Bumi estimates average prices at $61 to $62 a ton, excluding freight and charges, for coal shipped from its mines this year, compared with $73.30 a ton in 2008, according to a company presentation. That compares with about $44 a ton in 2007, Srivatsava said, declining to give a forecast for next year.

Steel Demand Recovery

UBS AG has raised its 2010 forecast for benchmark coal to $90 a metric ton from $80 a ton in 2010 in a report on July 6. Market conditions are expected to tighten starting in the fourth quarter of this year, with prices peaking in 2011, UBS said.

A recovery in steel demand may crimp thermal coal supplies, boosting prices, Srivatsava said. Steel producers use metallurgical coal, a higher grade that yields better margins for suppliers. Australian producers who diverted some metallurgical coal capacity to the thermal coal market because the recession curbed steel output may start boosting shipments to steel mills, he said.

Hard coking coal may climb to $180 a ton, up from an earlier forecast of $155 a ton because global crude steel production will rise by 12 percent in 2010 to a record 1.4 billion tons, Goldman Sachs JBWere Pty said Oct. 6.

Investments in new coal mines slowed as the global financial crisis slashed project funding, Srivatsava said. Mining ventures take a while to “unlock capacity” as producers typically need seven years to start output from a new coal concession and at least three years to expand output at an existing mine, he said.

Bumi plans to boost sales to China and India by 2012 when Asia’s biggest thermal coal exporter increases production to 100 million tons from 53 million last year, Srivastava said. It may supply 20 percent of its output to each of the two countries.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dinakar Sethuraman in Singapore at dinakar@bloomberg.net.





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PetroChina Parent Wins Engineering Contracts in Sudan

By Bloomberg News

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- China National Petroleum Corp. said it beat 13 bidders from countries including India to win seven engineering contracts in Sudan, holder of Africa’s fifth-largest crude oil reserves.

A unit of China National Petroleum was awarded $260 million of engineering and construction contracts for an area known as Block 6 in September, China’s largest oil and gas producer said on its Web site today.

China National Petroleum, the parent of Hong Kong-listed PetroChina Co., said last month it had received a $30 billion loan to fund overseas expansion as the world’s third-largest economy stepped up its hunt for energy resources overseas. China National Petroleum led the development of the first oilfield in Sudan where President Umar al-Bashir is accused by the International Criminal Court of committing war crimes in Darfur.

The contracts include the expansion of a power plant and construction of two crude oil tanks with a capacity of 50,000 cubic meters each, China National Petroleum said.

Sudan had 5 billion barrels of proven oil reserves as of January, the fifth-biggest in Africa, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The majority of the reserves are located in the Muglad and Melut basins in the south. China is the country’s largest investor.

In western region of Darfur, clashes between pro-government forces and rebels, along with tribal fighting, banditry and disease, have killed about 300,000 people, according to United Nations estimates. The rebels took up arms against the government in 2003 accusing it of neglecting the area. The government puts the death toll at about 10,000.

China’s oil consumption doubled in the last decade to 8 million barrels a day in 2008, according to BP Plc’s Statistical Review. It imported about 3.6 million barrels of oil a day last year, meeting about 45 percent of its needs.

To contact the reporter on this story: Ying Wang in Beijing at ywang30@bloomberg.net





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Dollar Rises as Bernanke Says Fed Set to Tighten Upon Recovery

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Ron Harui

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar rose the most in two months against the yen after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the bank is ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves, increasing the appeal of U.S. assets.

The yen dropped against all 16 of its most-traded counterparts after Japan’s machinery orders gained less than forecast, adding to signs its recovery will trail that of other economies. The Australian dollar headed for its biggest weekly gain since May amid wagers the central bank will raise interest rates twice more this year after a surprise increase on Oct. 6.

“Bernanke is shifting to a hawkish tone in terms of the timing of exit strategy following moves by other central banks, especially the Reserve Bank of Australia,” said Takeshi Tokita, vice president of foreign exchange sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. in Tokyo. “That’s benefiting the dollar.”

The U.S. currency climbed 0.9 percent, set for the steepest daily gain since Aug. 7, to 89.17 yen as of 6:01 a.m. in London from 88.39 yen in New York yesterday. That trimmed the dollar’s loss this week to 0.7 percent. The greenback rose to $1.4735 per euro from $1.4794, paring a 1.1 percent decline on the week. Japan’s currency dropped to 131.37 per euro from 130.76. It has weakened 0.4 percent on the week.

Australia’s dollar traded at 90.48 U.S. cents from 90.61 cents in New York yesterday, when it touched 90.90 cents, the strongest level since Aug. 7, 2008.

The U.S. dollar gained against 15 of its 16 major counterparts after Bernanke said in prepared remarks at a conference in Washington “when the economic outlook has improved sufficiently, we will be prepared to tighten.”

Bernanke’s comments echoed those by Kansas City Fed President Thomas Hoenig, who on Oct. 6 said raising interest rates wouldn’t derail the U.S. economic recovery.

‘Incremental Increases’

“Even if we were to start immediately, much time would pass before incremental increases could be considered tight or even neutral policy,” Hoenig said in Denver. “I would not support a tight monetary policy in the current environment, but my experience tells me that we will need to remove our very accommodative policy sooner rather than later.”

White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers repeated the administration’s commitment to a strong dollar, citing recent comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

“He made it very clear that our commitment is to a strong dollar based on strong fundamentals,” Summers said at a forum in New York organized by Bloomberg LP, the parent of Bloomberg News.

The yen dropped as Japan’s machinery orders rose 0.5 percent in August after falling 9.3 percent in July, the Cabinet Office reported in Tokyo. The median estimate of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey called for a 2.1 percent gain.

‘Momentum Trading’

“The data adds to speculation Japan will be the last to recover,” said Toshiya Yamauchi, a Tokyo-based manager of the foreign-exchange margin trading department at Ueda Harlow Ltd. “As other nations lead the global economic recovery, the yen will likely be sold as a funding currency.”

Japan’s currency is likely to weaken over the next 12 months as “momentum” fades from a tax break on overseas earnings, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co. Since April 1, Japanese exporters have been able to bring back income earned outside the country without paying the combined 40 percent tax.

“It’s largely momentum trading right now and we’re pushing it because we haven’t reached a pain threshold of anything to stop us,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers in New York. “The reason the Japanese stock market underperforms despite having a strong yen is precisely because they have a strong yen. It’s eroding corporate profits.”

Australia’s Rates

Japan’s currency will probably fall to between 105 and 110 versus the dollar in the next 12 months, Chandler predicted.

Australia’s currency has gained 4.6 percent this week versus its U.S. counterpart, the most since the five days ended May 8. Investors are certain the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the overnight cash rate target on Nov. 3 by a quarter percentage point, according to Bloomberg calculations based on interbank futures on the Sydney Futures Exchange.

They’re wagering on a 96 percent chance he follows with another increase in December to end the year with a cash rate at 3.75 percent.

“The central bank will probably hike rates twice more this year as fundamentals such as employment seem to be improving,” said Yuji Saito, head of the foreign-exchange group in Tokyo at Societe Generale SA, France’s third-largest bank. “High- yielding currencies such as the Aussie dollar will likely be bought more. Risk-taking appetite is high.”

‘Appropriate’ Rates

The number of people employed increased 40,600 in September from August 2008, the statistics bureau said in Sydney yesterday. The median estimate of 20 economists surveyed by Bloomberg was for a decline of 10,000. The unemployment rate fell to 5.7 percent from 5.8 percent.

The euro advanced against the yen after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet said yesterday the region’s economy is emerging from a period of “free fall,” damping demand for Japan’s currency as a refuge.

Trichet signaled the ECB will keep interest rates at a record low to spur growth.

“The current rates remain appropriate,” Trichet said at a press conference in Venice after policy makers left the main refinancing rate at 1 percent. “Excess volatility and disorderly movements in exchange rates have adverse implications for economic and financial stability,” he said, reiterating the Group of Seven’s statement on currencies.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net; Ron Harui in Singapore at rharui@bloomberg.net.





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Yen to Fall as Tax-Free Repatriation Boost Fades, Chandler Says

By Thomas R. Keene and Oliver Biggadike

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The yen will probably decline against the dollar over the next 12 months as “momentum” fades from a tax break that encourages repatriation of overseas profits to Japan, according to Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.

Japan’s currency traded today within 1.5 percent of its lowest this year versus the dollar as signs of a global economic recovery boosted the appeal of funding investments with the greenback instead of the yen. Since April 1, Japanese exporters have been able to bring back income earned outside the country without paying the combined 40 percent tax.

“It’s largely momentum trading right now and we’re pushing it because we haven’t reached a pain threshold of anything to stop us,” said Marc Chandler, global head of currency strategy at Brown Brothers in New York. “The reason the Japanese stock market underperforms despite having a strong yen is precisely because they have a strong yen. It’s eroding corporate profits.”

The yen rose 0.3 percent to 88.39 against the dollar in New York trading yesterday, its fourth straight day of gains and longest winning stretch since Sept. 11. Japan’s currency will probably fall to between 105 and 110 versus the dollar in the next 12 months, Chandler predicted.

“The most telling fact about Japan is that by the end of next year they’re going to have three million fewer workers than they did in 2005,” Chandler said, speaking in New York at a foreign-exchange conference sponsored by Bloomberg LP, the parent company of Bloomberg News. “That simple statistic tells you a lot about the challenges Japan has.”

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rose 11 percent this year, lagging the 18 percent gain in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and the 49 percent advance in Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index.

China’s Yuan

China could boost domestic demand in its economy by allowing the yuan to strengthen, said Gabriel de Kock, a senior strategist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. who spoke on the currency panel with Chandler and James McCormick, head of European fixed- income research at Nomura International Plc.

“The Chinese have a policy problem, which is to reallocate demand from foreign demand to domestic demand,” de Kock said. “One way to kill two birds with one stone is to allow the currency appreciate over time.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Thomas R. Keene in New York at tkeene@bloomberg.net; Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net





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Euro May Fall to Three-Month Low Versus Yen: Technical Analysis

By Yoshiaki Nohara and Shigeki Nozawa

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro is poised to decline to a three-month low against the yen, said Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd., citing trading patterns.

The European currency’s five- and 21-day moving averages are both heading down, signaling the euro is likely to keep weakening, said Masashi Hashimoto, a senior analyst in Tokyo at the unit of Japan’s biggest publicly traded bank. Daily momentum indicators such as moving average convergence/divergence also show sell signals, he said.

“The euro is shifting to a downtrend,” Hashimoto said in an interview yesterday. “If it falls through the 200-day moving average, that would be a big turning point in terms of trend.”

The euro traded at 130.74 yen as of 7:19 a.m. in Tokyo, down from a two-month high of 138.72 yen on Aug. 7.

The currency is set to weaken toward the 200-day moving average, currently at 129.73 yen, and if it fails to hold at that level it would then fall toward 127.02 yen, which represents its low of July 8, Hashimoto said. The euro has remained above the 200-day moving average since May.

A failure to remain above 127.02, would then open up the possibility of a decline to its April 28 level of 124.39, Hashimoto said.

MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporters on this story: Yoshiaki Nohara in Tokyo at ynohara1@bloomberg.net; Shigeki Nozawa in Tokyo at Snozawa1@bloomberg.net.





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Japan Seeks to Purchase 52,200 Tons of Food Wheat in SBS Tender

By Aya Takada

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Japan, Asia’s largest wheat importer, is seeking to buy 52,200 tons of food wheat and 31,700 tons of food barley on Oct. 29 through a tender system introduced to loosen government controls over grain imports.

Shipment must be made by Jan. 31, the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries said.

The tender will be held under the so-called simultaneous buy and sell system, in which Japanese food makers and trading companies jointly bid for grains of any country and quality.

The ministry has bought a total of 174,911 tons of food wheat and 105,798 tons of food barley through SBS tenders this fiscal year. It purchased 258,754 tons of food wheat and 260,386 tons of food barley in SBS tenders in the year ended March 31.

To contact the reporter on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net





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Russia’s Fibonacci ‘Breakout’ Signals Rally: Technical Analysis

By Michael Patterson

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Russia’s Micex Index surged yesterday above the halfway point between its all-time high and its bear- market bottom, a signal shares may climb another 27 percent, according to Auerbach Grayson & Co.

The Micex advanced 4.3 percent to 1,278.53, closing above the level midway between its December 2007 peak and its October 2008 low for the first time.

The midpoint is a key level for Fibonacci analysts, who use a system pioneered by 13th century mathematician Leonardo Pisano that discerns ratios from proportions found in nature. To adherents, the performance of an index when it approaches the 50 percent “retracement” level can be used to forecast whether it will keep climbing or retreat.

“The completion of the 50 percent retracement is very bullish,” Richard Ross, Auerbach’s New York-based global technical strategist, said in a phone interview. “It lends credence to the Micex’s breakout” above its previous 2009 high in June, he said.

The next “logical target” for the Micex is the 61.8 percent retracement level, a 10 percent advance from yesterday’s closing level, according to Ross. There’s a “good chance” the 30-company gauge may extend its rally to the 76.4 percent retracement level, a 27 percent gain from yesterday’s close, he said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net.





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Most Asian Stocks Gain as Chip Prices Rise; Utilities Decline

By Shani Raja

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Most Asian stocks rose, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index set for its biggest weekly gain in a month, as investors favored companies linked to the global economic recovery over haven assets including utilities shares.

Samsung Electronics Co., the world’s No. 1 memory-chip maker, climbed 4 percent after chip prices rose to a 16-month high. Record gold prices drove Zijin Mining Gold Co. up by 10 percent in Shanghai, where markets traded after an eight-day holiday. Electric Power Development Co. sank 2.4 percent in Tokyo, leading declines by utilities. Treasuries fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the bank is ready to tighten monetary policy once the economy improves.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 118.85 at 1:13 p.m. in Tokyo, having swung between gains and losses at least 16 times. Five stocks advanced for every three that declined. The index has climbed 3.5 percent this week as a report showed U.S. service industries expanded and signs of growth prompted Australia to raise interest rates.

“We’re all hoping the global recession is winding to a close,” said Rob Patterson, who helps manage $3.4 billion at Argo Investments Ltd. in Adelaide, Australia. “Certainly, the economic indicators are getting less worse. But I don’t imagine the U.S. will be raising rates any time soon.”

China’s Shanghai Composite Index climbed 3.8 percent, leading gains in Asia, while Taiwan’s Taiex Index added 0.67 percent. South Korea’s Kospi Index rose 1.7 percent.

Nintendo, Promise

Japan’s Nikkei 225 Stock Average added 1.5 percent, led by Nintendo Co., which gained 6.4 percent on a Citigroup Inc. upgrade. Promise Co., a Japanese consumer lender, surged 11 percent on speculation an executive’s promotion will strengthen ties with the company’s largest shareholder. Casino company Wynn Macau Ltd. climbed 9.1 percent in its Hong Kong debut.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index lost 0.2 percent. The gauge increased 0.8 percent yesterday, its fourth-straight gain, as first-time jobless claims fell more than economists estimated last week and an industry report showed U.S. retail sales rose for the first time in 13 months.

A gauge of technology stocks in the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.7 percent, the most of 10 industry groups. The price of the benchmark dynamic random access memory chip gained 2.4 percent yesterday to the highest since June 17, 2008, according to Dramexchange Technology Inc., operator of Asia’s biggest spot market for semiconductors.

Samsung added 4 percent to 749,000 won, while Hynix Semiconductor Inc., the world’s second-largest computer-memory maker, climbed 2.1 percent to 19,700 won.

Chinese Gold Producers

Zijin Mining, China’s largest gold producer, surged 10 percent to 9.34 yuan, while Shandong Gold Mining Co. climbed 10 percent to 64.90 yuan after gold futures in New York reached a record $1,062.70 an ounce yesterday. Bullion lost 0.8 percent in after-hours trading today.

Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest gold producer, gained 1.3 percent to A$35.62. Mitsubishi Corp., which generates more than half of its profit from commodities dealing, rose 0.7 percent to 1,902 yen.

A measure of six metals traded on the London Metal Exchange, including copper and zinc, added 4.2 percent yesterday, the steepest gain since Aug. 3, and oil surged 3.1 percent to $71.69 a barrel in New York.

“I’m still bullish because we are in a market with excess liquidity,” said Hiromichi Tsuyukubo, a hedge-fund manager at Myojo Asset Management Japan Co. in Tokyo. “That money is going to continue flowing to the materials sector.”

‘Pretty Good Rally’

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index has climbed 68 percent from a five-year low on March 9 on speculation the global economy’s recovery from its worst slowdown since World War II will bolster corporate earnings. Shares on the gauge traded at 1.55 times book value, up from 1.03 times at the market’s low in March, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

“We’ve had a pretty good rally and it’s got to stop somewhere,” said Argo’s Patterson. “Companies will shortly be giving some indication of how they’re traveling. Much will depend how bullish or otherwise they are.”

The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 3.27 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The Fed will be ready to raise interest rates when the economic outlook “has improved sufficiently,” Bernanke said at a conference yesterday on monetary economics in Washington.

“The U.S. economy and corporate-earnings picture both continue to show improvement,” said Juichi Wako, a senior strategist at Tokyo-based Nomura Holdings Inc. “Risk appetite among investors is returning.”

Worst Performers

Utilities and telephone companies, whose earnings are typically regarded as being sheltered from swings in the economic cycle, are the MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s worst performers during the gauge’s seven-month rally.

Electric Power Development sank 2.4 percent to 2,700 yen and Chugoku Electric Power Co. dropped 2 percent to 1,881 yen.

Nintendo, which makes the Wii game console, jumped 6.4 percent to 23,730 yen. Soichiro Fukuda, an analyst at Citigroup in Tokyo, raised the stock’s rating to “buy” from “hold,” citing the company’s prospects for an earnings recovery.

Promise rose 11 percent to 677 yen after it named Vice President Ken Kubo as its next president to replace Hiroki Jinnai, who will become chairman. The Nikkei reported the move will help boost ties with Sumitomo Mitsui, which held 21 percent of Promise’s shares at the end of March.

Kubo joined Promise in May 2007 from Sumitomo Mitsui, where he oversaw banking services for individuals.

Wynn Macau, the casino company led by billionaire Stephen Wynn, jumped 9.1 percent to HK$11 on its debut in Hong Kong. The company sold shares at HK$10.08, raising $1.63 billion in the city’s second-largest initial public offering this year.

To contact the reporter for this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





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Wheat Heads for First Weekly Gain in Six After Dollar Slumps

By Jae Hur

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat headed for the first weekly gain in six after advancing on speculation that the dollar’s slump will boost demand for supplies from the U.S., the world’s biggest exporter of the grain.

Futures in Chicago gained 7.4 percent in the previous four days as the dollar dropped to the lowest level in almost 14 months against a basket of six major currencies. Prices fell as much as 1.1 percent today before a U.S. Department of Agriculture report that is expected to forecast a record soybean harvest and the second-biggest corn output.

“It’s position squaring before the USDA’s announcement,” said Toshimitsu Kawanabe, an analyst at Tokyo-based commodity broker Central Shoji Co. “The market has support from the weaker dollar and pressure from forecasts for bumper U.S. harvests, especially for corn and soybeans.”

Wheat for December delivery fell 3.25 cents to $4.705 a bushel in electronic trading on the Chicago Board of Trade as of 12:58 p.m. Tokyo time. The contract yesterday touched $4.83, the highest level since Sept. 3.

The grain used to make bread, pasta and noodles has fallen 23 percent this year. Global production is expected to total 663.7 million metric tons, the largest behind last year’s record harvest, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

The Dollar Index rallied as much as 0.5 percent after reaching 75.767 yesterday, the weakest since Aug. 11, 2008. A decline in the dollar increases demand from overseas importers holding other currencies.

Export Sales

Export sales in the week ended Oct. 1 totaled 767,300 tons for the marketing year ending May 31, up 43 percent from a week earlier, the USDA said yesterday in a report.

Corn for December delivery fell 0.8 percent to $3.6125 a bushel at 1:01 p.m. Tokyo time, snapping the previous four days’ advance. The grain has risen 8.3 percent this week, heading for the biggest such gain since Dec. 12.

November-delivery soybeans were down 0.6 percent at $9.3025 a bushel. The contract climbed 2.6 percent yesterday after reaching $9.42, the highest price since Sept. 18. The oilseed rose 5.5 percent this week heading, for the first weekly gain in three, after touching a six-month low of $8.7875 on Oct. 5.

The USDA is expected to forecast a soybean harvest of 3.295 billion bushels, up 1.5 percent from last month’s estimate of 3.245 billion and 2.959 billion bushels produced last year, according to analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Corn production will rise to 13.006 billion bushels, up from 12.954 billion estimated last month, according to analysts surveyed. U.S. farmers harvested 12.101 billion bushels a year earlier.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net





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Gold Pares Biggest Weekly Gain Since April as Rally Spurs Sales

By Glenys Sim

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Gold dropped for the first time this week, paring its biggest weekly advance since April, after a climb to a record prompted some investors to sell the metal to lock in gains.

Bullion also fell as the dollar stemmed a decline after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank is ready to “tighten” monetary policy. Still, gold is up 4.7 percent this week, headed for its biggest weekly gain since April 24, as the Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six trading partners, fell 1.2 percent.

“The likelihood that long-term U.S. dollar weakness will support gold does not obviate the fact that the near-relentless increase in bullion prices recently has raised the possibility that gold is due for a pullback,” said HSBC Securities analyst James Steel. “A U.S. dollar rally, even if only temporary, could provide a reason for gold longs to take profits,” he wrote in a report e-mailed today.

Gold for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.6 percent to $1,049.11 an ounce, and traded at $1,049.26 at 9:28 a.m. in Singapore. Bullion touched an all-time high of $1,061.55 an ounce yesterday. December-delivery gold on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange declined 0.6 percent to $1,050.40 an ounce.

Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange- traded fund backed by the metal, were unchanged at 1,109.31 metric tons yesterday, data on the company’s Web site showed. The trust’s holdings are 2.2 percent from the record 1,134.03 tons reached June 2.

Among other precious metals for immediate delivery, silver slid 0.6 percent to $17.68 an ounce, platinum lost 0.6 percent to $1,339.25 an ounce, and palladium dropped 0.9 percent to $317.75 an ounce as of 9:20 a.m. in Singapore.

To contact the reporter on this story: Glenys Sim in Singapore at gsim4@bloomberg.net





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Minara Nickel Output Rises 14%; ‘Cautious’ on Demand

By Jason Scott

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- >Minara Resources Ltd., Australia’s second-largest nickel producer, said third-quarter production rose 14 percent, putting it on track to meet its annual target.

Output from the Murrin Murrin mine at Leonora in Western Australia was 8,698 metric tons in the three months ended Sept. 30 from 7,656 tons a year earlier, the Perth-based company controlled by Glencore International AG said today in a statement. The company maintained its full-year production forecast of between 30,000 tons and 34,000 tons.

Prices of nickel, used to strengthen stainless steel, have soared 65 percent this year as China increased consumption. Nickel demand may rise to 1.35 million tons next year, falling short of 1.44 million tons of production, the International Nickel Study Group said yesterday. Demand this year is estimated at 1.21 million tons against production of 1.28 million tons, the Lisbon-based organization said.

“The signs of increased demand for stainless steel in China have continued,” Minara wrote in the statement. “The company remains cautious as official London Metal Exchange stocks have risen to approximately 120,000 tons in recent weeks and the stainless steel markets in Europe and the U.S. remain soft.”

Minara rose 5.8 percent to A$1.00 at 12:17 p.m. in Sydney. Nickel for delivery in three months dropped 1 percent to $19,300 a ton at the same time in Sydney on the LME.

Cobalt production surged 47 percent to a record 754 tons, the company said. Minara owns 60 percent of Murrin Murrin, with Glencore, the world’s largest commodities trader, holding the balance.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at Jscott14@bloomberg.net


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Rubber Reaches 1-Year High as Yen Drops, Growth Optimism Gains

By Aya Takada

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Rubber advanced to the highest in a year as a drop in the Japanese currency boosted the appeal of yen-denominated contracts and U.S. jobless data stoked optimism the economic recovery will be sustained.

Futures in Tokyo climbed as much as 3.5 percent to the highest price since Oct. 7, 2008. The yen dropped against the dollar for the first time in five days after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. is ready to “tighten” monetary policy, raising the appeal of U.S. assets. The country’s jobless claims fell to a 10-month low, government data showed yesterday.

“Upbeat economic data boosted risk appetite of investors, leading them to buy stocks and commodities,” Takaki Shigemoto, a commodity analyst at research and investment company TOS in Tokyo, said today by phone. “A weaker yen is also positive for futures in Tokyo.”

March-delivery rubber gained as much as 7.4 yen to 219 yen a kilogram ($2,461 a metric ton) on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange before trading at 214.4 yen at 11:45 a.m. local time. Prices are poised for the biggest weekly gain since August.

January-delivery rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged as much as 7 percent to 18,880 yuan ($2,766) a ton, the highest level since Aug. 31, and last traded at 18,580 yuan. The Shanghai market chased a rally in Tokyo after a one-week holiday, Shigemoto said.

The yen fell to 89.06 per dollar at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo from 88.39 in New York yesterday. Bernanke said in prepared remarks at a Board of Governors conference in Washington that “as economic recovery takes hold, we will need to tighten monetary policy to prevent the emergence of an inflation problem down the road.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Aya Takada in Tokyo atakada2@bloomberg.net





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Alstom, Renault, Rubis, Theolia, Scor: French Equity Preview

By Simon Kennedy

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The following is a list of companies whose stocks may have unusual changes in Paris. Symbols are in parentheses after company names and prices are from the last close.

France’s CAC 40 Index advanced 50.40, or 1.3 percent, to 3,806.81 in Paris, gaining for a third day this week. The SBF 120 Index added 1.4 percent.

Alstom SA (ALO FP): The maker of power stations, Wisconsin Energy Corp. and the Electric Power Research Institute said they have been able to capture more than 90 percent of carbon dioxide emissions from a coal-fired power plant. The shares rose 1.64 euros, or 3.3 percent, to 51.07 euros.

Piscines Desjoyaux (PDJ FP): The maker of swimming pools reported fiscal year revenue of 72.6 million euros, down from 93 million euros a year earlier. The shares closed unchanged at 5 euros.

Renault SA (RNO FP): The carmaker is ready to offer its technology to help OAO AvtoVAZ, the indebted Russian group in which it owns a 25 percent stake, modernize production, First Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov said. Renault shares added 1.29 euros, or 4 percent, to 33.63 euros.

Rubis SA (RUI FP): The distributor of liquefied petroleum gas signed accords with Total SA and Royal Dutch Shell PLC to operate 60 gas stations in Corsica. It didn’t give financial terms. The shares advanced 85 cents, or 1.4 percent, to 62.35 euros.

Scor SE (SCR FP): France’s largest reinsurer opened a life reinsurance unit in the Netherlands. The stock rose 15 cents, or 0.8 percent, to 18.90 euros.

Societe Fonciere Lyonnaise (FLY FP): The real-estate company agreed a loan of 300 million euros with a group of French lenders, including BNP Paribas SA, the country’s biggest bank. The shares rose 25 cents, or 0.8 percent, to 33.60 euros.

Theolia SA (TEO FP): The wind-power producer sold a 9.2- megawatt capacity wind farm in the Somme area to Boralex Inc. It didn’t give financial terms. The shares added 2 cents, or 0.4 percent, to 4.81 euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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Derivatives Lobby Links With New Democrats to Blunt Obama Plan

By Dawn Kopecki, Matthew Leising and Shannon D. Harrington

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- As President Barack Obama vowed in a Sept. 14 speech in New York’s Federal Hall to correct “reckless behavior and unchecked excess” on Wall Street, Mike McMahon and Barney Frank sat in the audience discussing how to ease proposed rules for the $592 trillion over-the-counter derivatives market.

Side by side at 26 Wall St., across from the New York Stock Exchange, freshman congressman McMahon told House Financial Services Committee Chairman Frank he was worried that Obama’s derivatives plan, released in August, would penalize a wide swath of U.S. corporations and could push jobs in his home district overseas, McMahon said in an interview.

“It’s not just the farmers, and it’s not just the Wall Street guys,” said McMahon, a member of the New Democrat Coalition, a group of 68 self-described pro-growth Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives. “It’s across the nation. American industry uses these products for a very useful purpose, which keeps down prices and makes consumer products cheaper.”

McMahon said Frank agreed it was important to protect so- called end-users, the corporations that rely on derivatives to hedge everyday operational risk, such as fluctuations in foreign currency rates, interest rates and commodity prices. The Obama plan would subject companies to higher collateral requirements whether they trade standardized or customized contracts. It also calls for most trades to be executed on an exchange or an “alternative swap execution facility.”

‘Working Together’

“He said we’d be working together on this,” said McMahon, who represents a large constituency of Wall Street workers on Staten Island and in southwest Brooklyn. “We never had a philosophical difference.”

It’s not just end-users who won concessions from McMahon and Frank. JPMorgan Chase & Co.,Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Credit Suisse Group AG lobbied McMahon and fellow New Democrat Coalition member Representative Melissa Bean of Illinois, among others, to expand the ways the legislation allows dealers and major investors to trade the contracts, according to people familiar with the matter.

Bean’s spokesman Jonathan Lipman rejected the notion that the New Democrats made any changes to the bill at the behest of banks.

“New Dems have promoted strong regulatory reform that institutes trade and price reporting, capital requirements, and margin requirements, all of which puts mandates on these institutions that they don’t like,” Lipman said. “New Dems have been focused on increasing transparency, reducing systemic risk, and preserving the ability for end-users to hedge their risk.”

JPMorgan spokesman Justin Perras, Goldman Sachs spokesman Michael DuVally and Credit Suisse spokesman Victoria Harmon declined to comment.

Loopholes

The battle over derivatives legislation is a test for the Obama administration’s efforts to tighten financial regulation to prevent a repeat of the financial crisis that shook the global economy -- a crisis exacerbated by derivatives trading.

Frank, a Massachusetts Democrat who rose through the ranks in Congress fighting homelessness and advocating for gay and consumer rights, found his handiwork panned by administration officials after he released draft legislation last week that they criticized as too friendly to business. Frank’s bill allows for no change in how standardized over-the-counter derivatives are traded as long as they are reported to regulators.

Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler and Henry T.C. Hu of the Securities and Exchange Commission said Frank’s “discussion draft” created too many loopholes and had the potential to exclude all hedge funds and corporate end-users from oversight.

New Democrats

“That’s why it’s called a discussion draft, because it brings forth people’s comments,” Frank said in an interview after an Oct. 7 hearing at which Gensler and Hu testified. “It’s an ongoing process.”

Frank told the committee that he agreed to “tighten up” the legislation before it is voted on next week.

With 68 of the Democrats’ 256 votes in the House, the New Democrats have become a growing force within their party. Democrats hold a 38-member voting majority over Republicans and cannot pass financial legislation without coalition support.

“Oh, they were very important,” Frank said. “A couple of them have some experience in this area. They are also an important part of our caucus.”

Derivatives dealers became concerned that Obama’s plan didn’t adequately define “alternative swap execution facility” and that, in the end, regulators would write rules making them similar to exchanges, people familiar with the lobbying effort said. Over the last two months, the banks pressed to have Frank’s draft allow standardized trades to be executed privately via telephone, as they’ve been traded for decades, as long as they are reported to regulators, the people said.

Shrinking Spreads

The change could protect billions of dollars in profit for the dealers. When securities or derivatives are traded on exchanges -- where investors can see real-time prices, rather than indicative prices sent by e-mail in the over-the-counter market -- it can shrink the amount that dealers make on each trade, known as the spread.

“Having more discretion for the dealers in the regulations gives an extra benefit to them by staying away from narrower spreads,” said Darrell Duffie, a finance professor at Stanford University in California.

The top five U.S. commercial banks, including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America Corp., were on track through the second quarter to earn more than $35 billion this year trading unregulated derivative contracts, according to a review of company filings with the Federal Reserve and people familiar with the banks’ income sources.

Real-Time Pricing

The banks are arguing that an exchange or trading-system mandate that publicizes large trades could make it too expensive or impossible to execute customer orders and hedge those trades at the same time, according to the people familiar. Publicized large orders may dry up the willingness of dealers and investors to buy or sell contracts, they said.

That argument might not get a sympathetic ear at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Its chairman has several times called the regulated platforms “electronic trading systems,” suggesting that U.S. officials may seek to require banks and investors to use them like exchanges with real-time, public pricing.

“People viewed it as tantamount to an exchange,” said Robert Pickel, chief executive officer of the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, a New York-based group that sets standards in OTC derivatives markets.

‘Into the Weeds’

While the concerns were raised through both Republicans and Democrats, “the New Democrats have played a central role here both in terms of interacting with the end-users but also being able to take that concern to Chairman Frank,” Pickel said.

A half dozen New Democrats pressed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to expand the administration’s exemption for end-users in an Oct. 1 meeting.

“We got into the weeds on the derivatives bill,” said Connecticut Representative James Himes, a former investment banker at Goldman Sachs and a member of the New Democrats, who attended the meeting along with McMahon, Bean and chairman Joseph Crowley of New York.

Unlike Obama’s plan, Frank’s bill doesn’t require derivatives users or dealers to execute standardized over-the- counter contracts on a regulated exchange or trading platform, which would force greater price transparency. Instead, it gives them the option to decide if they want to use an exchange or a trading platform, or merely report the transaction to regulators by the end of the day.

Non-Standardized Contracts

Not mandating exchange or other types of electronic trading “will probably prevent spreads from dropping like a rock,” said Kevin McPartland, a senior analyst in New York at Tabb Group, a financial-market research and advisory firm. “There’s no reason, at least that I can see, why anybody would go to an exchange.”

The legislation “recognizes that a lot of derivatives contracts are non-standardized, meaning that IBM has exposure to the yen on a certain timetable that just doesn’t fit into standard exchange-traded contract,” said Himes. “The bill recognizes that some risks are unique. Sometimes you need a custom-made contract that won’t be exchange-traded or clearinghouse-cleared.”

Executives and lobbyists in finance, manufacturing, agriculture and other industries had been pressing lawmakers and administration officials for months before McMahon’s fortuitous seating assignment at Federal Hall.

“We’ve seen a steady parade of all of the big dealers, all of the major money-center banks have come through Congress,” Himes said in an interview.

Derivatives Coalition

The House Agriculture Committee approved legislation in February granting the CFTC or SEC oversight of clearinghouses backing credit-default swaps. It also would have allowed those regulators to suspend trading in the $26 trillion market.

“That acted as a catalyst, and we formed a small group of companies that were interested in this issue,” said Dorothy Coleman, vice president of tax and domestic economic policy at the National Association of Manufacturers in Washington. Momentum continued to build over the next six months as the Obama administration made derivatives reform a key element of its financial regulatory agenda.

The NAM group was joined by members of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the Business Roundtable to form the Coalition for Derivatives End-Users. Its 171 members are all non-financial corporations, including brewer MillerCoors LLC, International Business Machines Corp. and tractor-maker Deere & Co.

Letter to Congress

The coalition sent Congress a letter on Oct. 2 saying that some reform proposals “place an extraordinary burden on end- users of derivatives.” Members also met this week with lawmakers and staff on Capitol Hill.

In the end-users coalition, broker-dealers found a powerful ally. Although the two groups say they didn’t coordinate their lobbying, their interests overlapped and many of the concessions won in the bill for end-users ended up benefiting some of the biggest Wall Street banks whose credit-default swaps exacerbated the financial crisis.

“There’s very little sympathy for the plight of money- center banks on Capitol Hill right now,” Himes said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.com; Matthew Leising in New York at mleising@bloomberg.net; Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net.





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Equity Market May Extend Gain as Factory Output Rises, ASR Says

By Alexis Xydias

Oct. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Rising industrial production and a rebound in U.S. employment will push stocks higher around the world, according to Absolute Strategy Research Ltd., the London- based firm that told clients to buy shares in March.

Companies will need to re-stock inventories that were depleted more than necessary as consumer spending increases, boosting prices and helping employment recover in the world’s largest economy, said ASR, founded in 2006 by former Merrill Lynch & Co. and UBS AG strategists. Alcoa Inc. said this week in its earnings report that the replenishment of falling customer stockpiles will boost aluminum production.

“The corporate sector was forced into a much more aggressive response” than needed because of speculation that the global recession would extend into next year, David Bowers, strategist at ASR, said in an interview on Oct. 6. “The recovery in 2010 is about corporates repairing their cash flows and building up inventories.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index’s seven-month rally paused last week as data showed U.S. manufacturing expanded less than predicted in September and unemployment climbed to a 26-year high. New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said stocks “have gone up too much, too soon,” in an Oct. 3 interview from Istanbul, while the recovery is losing momentum, according to Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz.

‘Challenge Investors’

U.S. unemployment will keep rising, while gains in the stock market show investors are “irrationally exuberant” about a recovery, Stiglitz said on Oct. 5 in a Bloomberg Television interview from Istanbul. Billionaire investor George Soros said the same day that any economic improvement will be “very slow” as “basically bankrupt” financial companies impede it.

“The assumption being made across the board is that unemployment won’t come down,” said Ian Harnett, ASR’s director of European strategy. “That will challenge investors in the next six months. If that is wrong, it will take the bond market to pieces. What we’ve got is this real possibility for equities to rise another 20 percent.”

In a note distributed on March 6, ASR advised buying European shares because investors were ignoring the likelihood that economic growth would resume. Gross domestic product in countries using the euro is estimated to have contracted 4 percent in the third quarter and will shrink 1.9 percent in the last three months of the year before expanding 0.95 percent in 2010, according to the median estimates of economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

Global Recession

Europe’s Dow Jones Euro Stoxx 50 Index has rallied 60 percent since falling to a 12-year low on March 9. Equities gained as earnings exceeded estimates and $12 trillion committed by the Group of 20 nations spurred optimism the global economy would emerge from its first recession since World War II.

Three companies in the S&P 500 announced second-quarter profits that beat analysts’ estimates for each that missed, data compiled by Bloomberg show.

The Washington-based International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for 2010 global growth last week, saying the economy will expand 3.1 percent, more than a July forecast of 2.5 percent. Recessions in Germany and France, Europe’s two largest economies, unexpectedly ended in the second quarter.

Companies are restarting production amid a pick-up in sales, ASR said. U.S. car inventories fell to the lowest level in at least 24 years at the end of August because of demand during the “cash-for-clunkers” program, according to data from researcher Ward’s AutoInfoBank of Southfield, Michigan.

Alcoa, Toyota

Manufacturers’ stockpiles shrunk at a slower rate in September as the Inventories Index of the Institute for Supply Management’s report reached 42.5 percent. The index is 8.1 percentage points higher than the 34.4 percent reported in August. A reading of 42.6 is the dividing line between liquidation and replenishing of goods.

A Commerce Department report yesterday showed inventories at U.S. wholesalers dropped in August for a 12th consecutive month, clearing the way for a pickup in orders as sales improve.

Alcoa, the biggest U.S. aluminum producer and the first Dow Jones Industrial Average company to announce results for the third quarter, said Oct. 7 that global consumption of the metal will climb 11 percent in the second half. Shares of the New York-based company, which cited “low inventories” at distributors for its forecast, gained 1.1 percent yesterday.

Toyota Motor Corp., the world’s largest automaker, is boosting production after demand surged in August, Don Esmond, Toyota’s senior vice president of U.S. sales, said this month. The Toyota City, Japan-based carmaker began the month with an 18-day supply of vehicles, the executive said. The industry standard is 60 days.

‘More Upside’

“There is definitely more upside than downside -- perhaps as much as up 50 percent,” the ASR report in March said. Bowers was previously chief global investment strategist for New York- based Merrill Lynch, where he worked for 11 years. Harnett was previously a European strategist at Zurich-based UBS.

The S&P 500 slipped as much as 4.3 percent from an almost one-year high of 1,071.66 on Sept. 22, dragged down by a decline in the Tempe, Arizona-based ISM’s factory gauge to 52.6 last month from 52.9 in August. The measure topped 50, the dividing line between expansion and contraction, in August for the first time since January 2008.

Demand for U.S. durable goods unexpectedly fell in August and sales of new homes rose less than forecast, reports showed last month.

‘Headwinds’

“The headwinds for economic growth still remain strong,” said Neil Dwane, who helps oversee $80 billion as chief investment officer at Allianz Global Investors’ RCM unit in Frankfurt. “Any recovery we get will be disappointing relative to current market expectations.”

Central banks trying to revive growth will probably hold borrowing costs at or near record lows, Harnett said. That will spur inflation, boosting assets such as equities, he said.

The European Central Bank left its benchmark lending rate at a record low of 1 percent yesterday. The U.S.’s Federal Reserve has frozen the rate banks charge each other for overnight loans between zero and 0.25 percent since December 2008.

“We could end up in a world where growth is much higher than people expect,” Bowers added. “People are desperate for the jobless recovery. If this rally continues, it is career- threatening for a lot of investors.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net.





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