Economic Calendar

Friday, December 5, 2008

Gold Declines in London Trading After U.S. Employment Figures

By Nicholas Larkin

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell in London after a report showed U.S. employers eliminated jobs in November at the fastest pace in 34 years.

The U.S. Labor Department said payrolls shrank by 533,000 workers last month, exceeding economists’ estimates.

Gold for immediate delivery lost $14.79, or 1.9 percent, to $752.21 an ounce by 1:44 p.m. in London. It traded at $764 immediately before the release of the report.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net





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Oil Falls to Lowest in Almost 4 Years as U.S. Job Losses Worsen

By Alexander Kwiatkowski

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell to the lowest in almost four years after a report showed the U.S. economy lost the most jobs in November in 34 years, signaling the recession is getting worse.

Oil fell to $42 a barrel, the lowest since Jan. 4, 2005, after the Labor Department said today the U.S. lost 533,000 jobs last month. Prices have fallen 22 percent this week after the U.S., the world’s biggest fuel consumer, was declared to be in a recession.

“The number is much worse than consensus expectations, oil was already pressured and this is not helping,” said Olivier Jakob, managing director of PetroMatrix in Zug, Switzerland “The worries on demand are still the driving factor.”

Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.67, or 3.8 percent, to $42 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The contract traded at $42.43 at 1:52 p.m. London time.

November’s job losses exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. The jobless rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993.

Oil has fallen 70 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11. Crude’s weekly drop is the largest since a 24 percent decline during the week ending March 21, 2003.

The International Energy Agency cut its global oil demand forecast for 2009 because of the world economic slowdown.

The Paris-based agency reduced its demand forecast by 170,000 barrels a day from its November estimate to 86.37 million barrels a day, analyst David Martin said in a phone interview today as the agency issued an update to its July Medium-Term Oil Market report.

Recession Start

The U.S. entered a recession in December 2007, the National Bureau of Economic Research, a private, non-profit panel of economists that dates American business cycles, said Dec. 1. U.S. equity markets declined yesterday as oil stocks dropped on forecasts of $25-a-barrel crude from analysts at Merrill Lynch.

“The picture is still very bearish,” said Gerrit Zambo, an oil trader at BayernLB in Munich. “It opens up the possibility of prices below $40 a barrel.”

U.S. fuel demand during the four weeks ended Nov. 28 was down 6.2 percent from a year earlier, an Energy Department report showed Dec. 3.

The economies of the U.S., Japan and Europe are all in recession for the first time since World War II. The European Central Bank yesterday cut its benchmark interest rate by the most in its 10-year history to stem the collapse. The Bank of England and Sweden’s central bank followed with reductions.

Brent Crude

Brent crude oil for January settlement fell as much as $1.50, or 3.6 percent, to $40.78 a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract traded at $41.17 a barrel at 1:48 p.m. London time.

Qatar’s oil minister said on Dec. 3 that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will “definitely” cut output at its next meeting in Algeria on Dec. 17.

“I am sure we will see a cut in December,” said HSH Nordbank’s Diek. “The cuts in oil production should stabilize prices.”

OPEC oil ministers agreed on Oct. 24 in Vienna that the 11 members with quotas would lower supply by 1.5 million barrels a day starting in November. Production by the 11, excluding Iraq and Indonesia, declined 725,000 barrels to 28.24 million barrels a day last month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg News.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexander Kwiatkowski in London at akwiatkowsk2@bloomberg.net


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ICAP Hires JPMorgan’s Daemon Bear to Head ‘Dark Pool’

By Nandini Sukumar

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- ICAP Plc, the world’s largest broker of trades between banks, named Daemon Bear to set up and lead an alternative trading system and so-called dark pool for stocks.

Bear, previously head of equity trading at JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s asset management unit, will join the company in early January 2009 as head of Blockcrossing. ICAP confirmed Bear’s appointment and plans for the new electronic platform in an e- mail today.

The system for banks and fund managers will be created specifically to handle large blocks of shares and act as a dark pool that won’t display prices. The company wants to develop a multilateral trading facility by the second half of 2009, said a person familiar with the plans yesterday who declined to be identified because the plans weren’t public at the time.

London-based ICAP, which in 2006 ended merger talks with London Stock Exchange Group Plc, joins other so-called MTFs including Chi-X Europe Ltd., Turquoise, Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and Bats Trading Inc., all of which aim to take market share from the traditional European stock exchanges. ICAP will focus on offering a dark pool.

Institutional investors are increasingly turning to dark pools, which compete with bourses including the New York Stock Exchange, LSE and Nasdaq OMX and allow investors to disguise their strategies. The systems match orders anonymously and don’t publicly disseminate quotes. In Europe, they are proliferating along with alternative exchanges as new rules spur competition and demand best execution for customers.

Previous Jobs

Bear was head of equity trading for 10 years at JPMorgan Asset Management and had previously worked at Invesco Ltd. and New Star Asset Management Plc, according to ICAP.

“Daemon is well known to the connectivity and trading technology community as well as considered an expert in buyside trading requirements,” Peter O’Toole, managing director at ICAP Securities, said in the statement today.

Bourses are trying to fight off the new rivals by cutting fees and introducing dark pools themselves. Deutsche Boerse AG started one called Xetra MidPoint on Nov. 24. LSE is setting up a dark pool known as Baikal, after the deepest lake in the world, which has its own chief executive officer and will be run separately from the bourse.

Record Profit

ICAP, led by Chief Executive Officer Michael Spencer, said Nov. 18 that profit jumped to a record as price swings triggered by the credit crisis boosted commissions on trading currencies and securities. Net income gained 5 percent to 84 million pounds ($123 million) for the six months ended Sept. 30.

While the collapse of the U.S. subprime-mortgage market has spurred almost $1 trillion of writedowns and losses at the world’s biggest banks, ICAP’s income increased as customers stepped up trading. Morgan Stanley said last month that so-called interdealer brokers face slowing growth as banks shrink their balance sheets and reduce transactions.

The company, whose shares are down more than 60 percent this year amid the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, said it expects pretax profit for the year ending March 31, 2009, to be ahead of the average of 13 analysts’ current estimates of 347 million pounds.

ICAP benefits when price fluctuations increase because more customers use the products it offers. The company competes with brokers including GFI Group Inc. and BGC Partners in New York and Tullett Prebon Plc in London.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nandini Sukumar in London at nsukumar@bloomberg.net





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Morgan Stanley Says Emerging-Market Stocks May Jump 60% in 2009

By Michael Patterson

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Emerging-market stocks, mired in the worst annual slump since at least 1988, may rally more than 60 percent next year as governments take “aggressive” steps to bolster economic growth, Morgan Stanley said.

The MSCI Emerging Markets Index will climb 61 percent from yesterday’s closing level to 810 next year, Jonathan Garner, the London-based head of Morgan Stanley’s emerging-markets strategy team, wrote in a research note dated yesterday.

“We expect a fight back from emerging-market equities in 2009,” Garner wrote. “We find the ability and willingness of most emerging-market countries to pursue counter-cyclical policies to be a key difference from previous recessionary environments.”

Resilient consumer demand in Brazil, Russia, India and China, along with interest-rate cuts in 11 developing nations in the past two months, may help cushion economies from the global financial crisis, Garner wrote.

He predicted Asian markets including China and Taiwan will rise the most because governments and businesses in the region have low debt levels. Those countries also have large foreign- exchange reserves, Garner added.

“A good case can be made” that the MSCI emerging-market index won’t fall below a four-year low on Oct. 27 because its drop from last year’s peak is steeper than previous declines and valuations are at “extreme” levels, Garner wrote.

MSCI’s emerging-markets index has tumbled 60 percent this year, a steeper decline than in any year since 1988, when Bloomberg began tracking the data, as the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression pushed the global economy toward a recession. The MSCI China Index has retreated 55 percent in 2008, while the MSCI Taiwan Index has dropped 53 percent.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net;





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U.K. Stocks Retreat After U.S. Jobs Data; Shell, BHP Lead Slump

By Sarah Jones

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks extended declines after a report showed U.S. employers eliminated jobs in November at the fastest pace in 34 years and the unemployment rate jumped as the year-long recession engulfing the world’s largest economy deepened.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc, Europe’s biggest oil company, lost 5.4 percent as crude oil trades below $44 a barrel. BHP Billiton Ltd., the world’s largest mining company, and Antofagasta Plc dropped more than 8 percent as copper tumbled for a seventh day.

The FTSE 100 Index declined 96.88, or 2.3 percent, to 4,066.73 at 1:32 p.m. in London.

Payrolls shrank by 533,000 workers last month, the biggest loss since December 1974, after decreasing a revised 320,000 the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. November’s job losses exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. The jobless rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993.

To contact the reporter on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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Canada’s Dollar Declines to Two-Week Low as Employers Cut Jobs

By Chris Fournier and Michael J. Moore

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Canada’s dollar fell to a two-week low after a government report showed employers cut almost triple the jobs in November that economists forecast, signaling the country may be entering a recession.

“It’s obviously a weak number,” said Firas Askari, head currency trader in Toronto at BMO Nesbitt Burns, a unit of Bank of Montreal, Canada’s fourth-largest bank. “The Canadian dollar is obviously not immune to global weakness.” The loonie will strengthen to C$1.25 by year-end, Bank of Montreal forecasts.

The Canadian dollar dropped 0.9 percent to C$1.2871 per U.S. dollar at 7:17 a.m. in Toronto, from C$1.2757 yesterday. It touched $1.2880, the weakest level since Nov. 21. One Canadian dollar buys 77.70 U.S. cents.

The economy lost 70,600 jobs after a gain of 9,500 positions in October, Statistics Canada said today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News was for a decrease of 25,000 in November. Canada’s unemployment rate rose to 6.3 percent, from 6.2 percent.

Canada’s central bank cut borrowing costs six times beginning in December 2007, lowering its overnight rate to 2.25 percent from 4.5 percent. Policy makers will cut the target rate by a half-percentage point to 1.75 percent at their next meeting on Dec. 9, according to the median forecast in a separate Bloomberg survey.

To contact the reporters on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net; Michael J. Moore in New York at mmoore55@bloomberg.net





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Europe Stocks, U.S. Index Futures Fall After U.S. Jobs Report

By Adam Haigh

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- European stocks slumped for a third day this week and U.S. index futures tumbled after employers in the U.S. cut jobs last month at the fastest pace in 34 years, signaling the world’s largest economy is slipping deeper into recession.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. and General Electric Co. dropped more than 3 percent after job losses in the U.S. topped forecasts and the unemployment rate jumped. BHP Billiton Ltd. tumbled 7.7 percent as copper slipped for a seventh day, its longest losing streak in 10 years. BP Plc and Total SA sank more than 5 percent as crude dropped below $43 a barrel, heading for its worst week since March 2003.

“The concern is depression,” said Patrick Sumner, a London-based portfolio manager at Henderson Global Investors, which has about $77.2 billion in assets under management. The situation will get worse “if the deterioration in the economy is sustained,” he told Bloomberg Television.

The Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 2.9 percent to 191.62 at 2:03 p.m. in London, with all 19 industry groups decreasing except for health care. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.8 percent. U.S. stocks fell yesterday, pushed down by concern General Motors Corp. may file for bankruptcy and Merrill Lynch & Co.’s prediction that oil will hit $25 a barrel.

Europe’s Stoxx 600 has slumped 7.1 percent this week, wiping off about half of last week’s record gain, as reports signaled the global economy is deteriorating. The European Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate yesterday by the most in the bank’s 10- year history after record declines in European and Chinese manufacturing and more job losses in the U.S.

Unemployment Climbs

In the U.S., payrolls shrank by 533,000 workers last month, the biggest loss since December 1974, after decreasing a revised 320,000 the prior month, the Labor Department said today in Washington. November’s job losses exceeded all estimates in a Bloomberg News survey of 73 economists. The jobless rate rose to 6.7 percent, the highest level since 1993.

Canadian employment fell by the most since 1982 in November, led by manufacturing, a sign the world’s eighth- largest economy is falling victim to a global recession.

The German economy, Europe’s largest, will shrink the most in 16 years in 2009 as the global recession hits exports, the Bundesbank said today.

“There is a vice-like grip on the market,” said Manus Cranny, a London-based equity market analyst at MF Global. “We have given up any ideas of an optimistic view” for stocks, he told Bloomberg Television.

Debt Losses

More than $31 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities this year as the U.S. mortgage market collapse, freezing credit and pushing the U.S., Japan, Germany and the U.K. into recessions. Debt losses and writedowns by the world’s largest lenders and insurers have approached $1 trillion in the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression.

National benchmarks fell in all 18 western European markets except Iceland and Ireland. The FTSE 100 lost 1.1 percent, as Royal Dutch Shell Plc and Antofagasta Plc retreated. France’s CAC 40 declined 2.7 percent, while Germany’s DAX decreased 2.5 percent.

Stocks in Europe may fall another 20 percent in the “short term” as investors grasp the possibility of deflation, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a note dated today.

“Remain defensive,” strategists including Jessica Binder wrote in the report. “The start of 2009 is unlikely to bring a change in the dynamic of growth.”

Weaker Demand

The personal and household goods industry was downgraded to “underweight” from “neutral” by the brokerage, which cited weaker consumer demand. Basic-resource shares were lowered to “neutral” from “overweight” on expectations of cuts to capital expenditure and dividends.

BHP, the world’s largest mining company, fell 7.7 percent to 978.5 pence. Antofagasta, the copper producer controlled by Chile’s Luksic family, lost 5.9 percent to 365.25 pence.

Copper lost 4.3 percent today to $3,130 a metric ton in London. The metal for delivery in three months has fallen 17 percent in seven trading sessions on concern producers haven’t cut output enough to counter demand weakness in China and the U.S., the largest consumers of industrial metals.

BP, Europe’s second-largest oil producer, lost 5.5 percent to 483.75 pence. Shell, the region’s biggest, declined 4.6 percent to 1,584 pence, while Total, the third-largest energy company, retreated 6.8 percent to 36.48 euros.

Oil fell to the lowest in almost four years as the economic contraction and job losses in the U.S. cause a slump in fuel demand. Crude sank 97 cents, or 2.2 percent, to $42.70, following yesterday’s 6.7 percent decline.

TNT, Berkeley

TNT NV, Europe’s second-biggest express-delivery company, fell 4.6 percent to 14.27 euros. Deutsche Bank AG lowered its recommendation on the shares to “sell” from “hold” and reduced its price estimate 20 percent to 12 euros. The broker said an investor day yesterday highlighted how express volumes had declined significantly and look set to continue into 2009, London-based analyst Andy Chu wrote in a note to clients.

Berkeley Group Holdings Plc advanced 3.8 percent to 818.5 pence after the U.K.’s largest homebuilder by market value eliminated its debt and built up cash even as a housing slump cut first-half profit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net





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National Bank, Royal Bank, TD Bank: Canadian Equity Preview

By John Kipphoff

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in Canadian trading today. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are from yesterday’s close.

The Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index fell 2.9 percent to 8,057.82. The S&P/TSX has dropped 13 percent in four days, poised for its steepest weekly drop since Oct. 10.

National Bank of Canada (NA CN): The country’s sixth- largest bank was rated “neutral” in resumed coverage at Merrill Lynch & Co. National Bank reported a fourth-quarter profit of C$70 million ($55.4 million) yesterday, reversing a loss from a year earlier when it had more writedowns. The shares fell 6 percent to C$35.55 and have dropped 14 percent in four days.

Royal Bank of Canada (RY CN): The nation’s biggest lender reported earnings that fell for a fourth straight quarter, its longest streak in nine years, after setting aside more money for bad loans and posting trading losses.

Profit for the fourth quarter fell 15 percent to C$1.12 billion ($870 million), or 81 cents a share, from C$1.32 billion, or C$1.01, the bank said. The shares fell 4.3 percent to C$36.60 and are down 15 percent this week.

Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD CN): Canada’s second-largest bank will keep its “eyes open” for potential U.S. acquisitions, Chief Financial Officer Colleen Johnston said in a Bloomberg Television interview. The shares fell 1.4 percent to C$41.92.

To contact the reporter on this story: John Kipphoff in Toronto at jkipphoff@bloomberg.net.





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Aracruz, MMX, Renner, Vale, Votorantim: Brazilian Equity Movers

By Paulo Winterstein

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies are having unusual price changes in Brazil trading. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are as of 8:16 a.m. New York time. Preferred shares are usually the most-traded class of stock.

The Bovespa index fell 2 percent to 34,411.36.

Aracruz Celulose SA (ARCZ6 BS) fell 1.6 percent to 1.83 reais, the first drop in three days. The world’s largest producer of eucalyptus pulp denied reports it received a new offer for the 28 percent stake Grupo Votorantim wants to buy. Aracruz didn’t receive any further information from Votorantim, Brazil’s largest industrial group, or Arapar SA, according to a statement posted on the Web site of CVM, Brazil’s securities regulator. Votorantim Celulose & Papel SA (VCPA4 BS) fell 2.4 percent to 12.90 reais.

Cia. Vale do Rio Doce (VALE5 BS) slid 2.8 percent to 21.35 reais, the lowest price for the world’s biggest iron-ore producer in almost two weeks. The UBS Bloomberg CMCI industrial metals index dropped for a fifth day, falling to the lowest in more than three years. MMX Mineracao & Metalicos SA (MMXM3 BS), the mining company controlled by Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista, decreased 2.6 percent to 3 reais.

Lojas Renner SA (LREN3 BS) lost 2.1 percent to 12.92 reais. Brazil’s biggest publicly traded clothing retailer will likely see slowing sales and a “challenging” 2009 as consumers turn “skeptical” about discretionary spending, wrote Deutsche Bank AG analyst Reinaldo Santana. He cut his 2009 share-price estimate for Renner by 35 percent to 17 reais.

To contact the reporter on this story: Paulo Winterstein in Sao Paulo at pwinterstein@bloomberg.net.





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Big Lots, Cubist Pharmaceuticals, Rambus: U.S. Equity Preview

By Whitney Kisling

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The following companies may have unusual price changes in U.S. trading today. Stock symbols are in parentheses, and share prices are as of 8:35 a.m. in New York, unless otherwise specified.

Actuate Corp. (ACTU US) rose 32 percent to $3 in trading after the official close of exchanges yesterday. The software developer raised the price it offered to buy its stock for to at least $3 a share.

Big Lots Inc. (BIG US) fell 10 percent to $14.59. The largest U.S. seller of discontinued goods that’s gained 1.8 percent this year lowered its earnings forecast for the current fiscal year and the quarter ending Jan. 31, after posting a decline in third-quarter sales.

Bill Barrett Corp. (BBG US) slid 0.8 percent to $17.25. The Denver-based oil and gas producer was cut to “market perform” from “outperform” by Morgan Keegan & Co. on concern a “negative stigma” related to the pricing environment in the Rockies could hurt the stock.

Bunge Ltd. (BG US) fell 4.7 percent too $35.54. The world’s biggest oilseed processor was cut to “underperform” from “neutral” at Merrill Lynch & Co., which said 2009 earnings will be lower than previously expected. Merrill also cut the share-price target to $36 from $42.

Cadbury Plc American depositary receipts (CBY US) climbed 2.4 percent to $33.05. The world’s largest candy maker, was raised to “hold” from “sell” at Citigroup Inc.

Cubist Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CBST US) lost 7.1 percent to $26. The maker of the skin-infection drug Cubicin was cut to “underperform” from “perform” at Oppenheimer & Co. on concern the company doesn’t have many “compelling opportunities,” forcing it to expand outside its core market.

Leap Wireless International Inc. (LEAP US) gained 5.6 percent to $22. The operator of the Cricket and Jump brands of mobile-phone service was raised to “buy” from “neutral” at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and added to its “conviction buy” list. Subscriber growth will be “impressive” in the fourth quarter because of the company’s “compelling” offers, Goldman said.

Novell Inc. (NOVL US) rose 4.7 percent to $4. The second- largest U.S. seller of Linux software met analysts’ estimates with its fourth-quarter profit, excluding some costs, after it cut jobs and offloaded consulting tasks to partner companies.

Rambus Inc. (RMBS US) gained 1.4 percent to $10.76. The designer and licensor of memory chips said U.S. trade officials will consider its bid to block imports of electronics that include Nvidia Corp.’s computer-graphic chips. Rambus claims the Nvidia chips infringe its patents for high-speed computer memory.

Thoratec Corp. (THOR US) rose 15 percent to $28.35 after the official close of exchanges yesterday. The company said its mechanical heart pump outperformed an older version in a trial of 200 patients with advanced heart failure.

TRW Automotive Holdings Corp. (TRW US): The world’s biggest maker of vehicle-safety equipment withdrew its 2008 sales and profit projections, saying vehicle production has fallen “well beyond” forecasts. The stock rose 2.9 percent to $2.81 in regular trading yesterday.

Yahoo! Inc. (YHOO US) fell 2.3 percent to $10.80. Yahoo investor Carl Icahn, who lobbied for a Microsoft Corp. (MSFT US) takeover earlier this year, held talks with Microsoft about a purchase of Yahoo’s Internet search business, without reaching an agreement.

Microsoft, the world’s largest software maker, fell 1.4 percent to $18.85.

To contact the reporter on this story: Whitney Kisling in New York at wkisling@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Stock Futures Drop as Job Cuts Top Economists’ Forecasts

By Elizabeth Stanton

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures tumbled after employers cut jobs at the fastest pace in 34 years last month, spurring concern that the deepening recession will prolong a 15- month slump in corporate profits.

JPMorgan Chase & Co., American Express Co. and Microsoft Corp. led declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks trading in Europe after the government said the nation lost 533,000 jobs last month, 59 percent more than the average estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. Benchmark indexes were poised to post their fourth weekly drops since October.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in December slid 1.8 percent to 832.4 at 9:09 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures lost 1.4 percent to 8,287 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures fell 1.6 percent to 1,117.25.

“Weakening employment makes the banking environment rougher,” said Matthew DiFilippo, director of research at Stewart Capital Advisors in Indiana, Pennsylvania, which manages $1 billion. “It leads to higher levels of nonperforming loans, making recovery in the banking sector more challenging. I wouldn’t be surprised if we retest the lows because of today’s number.”

The S&P 500 is down 42 percent in 2008, poised for its worst year since 1931, after the collapse of the subprime mortgage market dragged the nation into a recession and reduced average profits for five consecutive quarters. The benchmark index is still 12 percent above its 11-year low on Nov. 20 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates and Congress will pass another stimulus package to cushion the economy from the global financial crisis.

Weekly Slide

The S&P 500 has dropped 5.7 percent this week and the Dow average has retreated 5.1 percent. The Nasdaq Composite Index has declined 5.9 percent.

JPMorgan retreated 3.7 percent to $29.92 in trading before the open of U.S. exchanges. Microsoft, the world’s largest software company, slipped 2.2 percent to $18.69. American Express Co. declined 2.4 percent to $20.35.

General Motors Corp. added 5.8 percent to $4.35. Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner told lawmakers yesterday he would accept strict conditions for a U.S. loan to stay afloat, including a promise to return the money and file for bankruptcy if his company doesn’t fulfill the terms. GM says it needs $8 billion to keep from running out of cash by early next year.

China and the U.S. pledged $20 billion to fund trade and agreed to deepen financial ties, stepping up efforts to counter the credit crisis in their final economic talks before President-elect Barack Obama takes office.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said the extra trade finance will be supplied by import-export banks in China and the U.S. The money would be available to “creditworthy importers in developing economies” to finance exports from the U.S. and China and to benefit the global economy, Paulson said. “China is stepping up its efforts to promote global growth and stability.”

The U.S. also agreed to speed up approvals for Chinese financial institutions investing in the country, the nations said in a joint statement as the Strategic Economic Dialogue ended in Beijing today.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Patterson in London at mpatterson10@bloomberg.net.





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Asian Stocks Rise On Further Commodity Weakness - Markets Eye NFP's Today

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Dec 05 08 09:23 GMT |

Market Brief

U.S stock markets declined in the closing hours of trading yesterday as continued uncertainty over the 'Big-Three' looms over the U.S economy. The Dow ended the day -2.5% while the S&P and NASDAQ ended the day down by 3%. The EURUSD traded a relatively tight 40pip range - between 1.2730 and 1.2770 during Asian trading, markets awaiting this afternoon's Non-Farm Payrolls as stimulus. Yesterday saw the dollar weaken as the world watched the once mighty U.S automotive industry plead Congress for help - a rescue package that has gone from $25Bn to $34Bn in the two weeks the Big three have convened to prepare detailed Business plans and financial statements.

The Yen continues to be headstrong, advancing against all currencies, low interest rates and unwinding of carry trades continues to drive the Nippon currency to new heights. The currency is now flirting with 91 support line, a level not seen in 13 years. The Aussie and Kiwi had a volatile day yesterday, initially rising against the dollar but eventually capitulating as demand for the currency weakened as policy makers in Australia, New Zealand lowered their benchmark rates - along with the ECB, BoE and Riksbank.

The spotlight is on the NFP's today as a median forecast of 73 economists predicts a 333'000 decline, only a month after an already impressive 240'000 decline last month. The NFP's and unemployment rate are due out at 13:30 GMT - volatility could to be expected if the number is even worse than expected, if confirmed the decline would bring unemployment to 6.8% - the highest level in 15 Years.

Crude prices are on all the news wires, the slowing global economy has dampened demand sending crude to a 4 year low of $43.36/bbl. Many analysts believe the state of the global economy and the awareness brought on by the exceptionally high oil prices only a few months ago will continue to weaken demand for the commodity - eyes on $40/bbl in the near term and $25/bbl for the real believers.

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.






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Forex Depth Analysis: EUR/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Finotec Group | Dec 05 08 09:29 GMT |

Interest rate cut rewards euro against the dollar.

European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is under pressure to outline a plan to revive the euro region's economy should he be 'trapped' into pushing interest rates closer to zero. Even as Trichet delivers the largest round of rate cuts in the ECB's history, he hasn't spelled out a specific approach should conventional tools fail to head off deflation While he yesterday acknowledged for the first time that unorthodox measures are an option, economists warn the lack of detail is a concern.

The following technical analysis gives us a detailed lookout on what is expected to happen to EUR/USD.

The buying point is at 1.2751; based on a strong demand in the market.

  • Previous resistance is the take profit at 1.2950
  • Fibonacci 23.6% is the stop loss at 1.2645

The selling point is at 1.2590; based on a break of a strong support.

  • Previous support is the take profit at 1.2340
  • Fibonacci 38.2% is the stop loss at 1.2705

To strengthen our analysis; we use many other indicators, starting with MACD (Moving Averages convergence divergence); we notice the crossing of MACD line to the signal line and is pointing upwards. In order to find the power of the market, we use RSI (Relative Strength Index).With RSI; we can determine that the market is in an uptrend.

The ROC oscillator is very important to understand the demand in the market and as we see on the graph it breaks the zero level. The stochastic oscillator crosses %D line and is in a bullish direction.

* The following analysis is for information only; Finotec is not responsible for any decisions or misinterpretations based on the given text.

Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.





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Technical Analysis for Crosses

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Crown Forex | Dec 05 08 09:14 GMT |

EUR/JPY

The pair for the nearly past four sessions has been fluctuating below the resistance level at 118.52 which it failed to breach till now; the upside direction is supported by the momentum indicators over the medium term which are providing buy signals while still over the short term it is still not clear with volatile signals, the upside targets though over the short term remain close to 121.42 levels valid if the 118.52 was breached

Support: 117.63, 117.06, 116.70, 116.38, 116.15
Resistance: 118.55, 119.01, 119.47, 119.77, 120.50

GBP/JPY

The pair is still trading within the descending channel over the medium term which opens the way towards 134.00; momentum indicators over the medium term shows the pair is trading in oversold areas while buying signals are still not seen while over the short term the pair is destined for further decline. The upside targets though over the short term remain despite the downside move which reside at 137.50 which resides with the downside channel resistance and the 20 4-hour Moving Average.

Support: 135.07, 134.62, 134.08, 133.65, 133.00
Resistance: 136.07, 136.80, 137.50, 137.98, 138.27

EUR/GBP

The euro continued to gain against sterling yesterday as the pair set a new record high at 0.8724; momentum indicators over the short, medium and long terms are showing the pair is overbought and support a correctional move supporter by direction indicators especially that the pair now faces the resistance level for the long term trend; downside targets are now at 0.0% correction for the medium term upside wave at 0.8662 and then 0.8615.

Support: 0.8700, 0.8682, 0.8662, 0.8630, 0.8618
Resistance: 0.8724, 0.8737, 0.8752, 0.8769, 0.8781

Crown Forex

disclaimer:The above may contain information for investors/traders and is not a recommendation to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies, nor an offer to buy or sell currencies, gold, silver & energies. The information provided is obtained from sources deemed reliable but is not guaranteed as to accuracy or completeness. I am not liable for any losses or damages, monetary or otherwise that result. I recommend that anyone trading currencies, gold, silver & energies should do so with caution and consult with a broker before doing so. Prior performance may not be indicative of future performance. Currencies, gold, silver &energies presented should be considered speculative with a high degree of volatility and risk.


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Technical Analysis Daily: GBP/USD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by iFOREX.bg | Dec 05 08 09:24 GMT |

GBP/USD 1.4734

GBP/USD Open 1.4666 High 1.4826 Low 1.4466 Close 1.4677

On Thursday Pound/Dollar reached our short term forecast goal at 1.4675, even made a lower bottom of 1.4466. The currency couple than shifted and sharply rose, reaching a peak of 1.4826 and closed the day at 1.4677. Signals for today remain descending. The nearest resistance is seen at 1.4800. Immediate support is 1.4545. Another move under that level could lead to further bearish scenario towards the region of 1.4286. The CCI indicator however, is about to cross down the 100 line on the four hour chart, indicating more potential decreasing pressure.

Technical resistance levels: 1.4800 1.4970 1.5060
Technical support levels: 1.4545 1.4470 1.4395

Trading range: 1.4745 - 1.4680

Trend: Downward

Sell at 1.4734 SL 1.4764 TP 1.4694

iFOREX.bg Forecasts and Trading Signals
http://www.zifx.com





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Spain October Industrial Output: Summary (Table)

By Ainhoa Goyeneche

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Following is a summary of the October industrial output report from Instituto Nacional de Estadistica in Madrid:


===============================================================================
Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May April
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
------- Non Seasonally Adjusted YoY % changes -------
All Items -11.2% -4.8% -11.0% -1.4% -9.7% -7.6% 11.8%
Consumer Goods -6.2% -3.3% -11.1% -0.2% -9.7% -9.7% 13.0%
Consumer Durables -17.9% -10.4% -23.3% -11.8% -21.3% -13.5% 16.5%
Consumer Non-Durables -4.1% -2.1% -9.8% 2.1% -7.5% -9.1% 12.4%
Capital Goods -12.2% -1.4% -15.0% 3.3% -10.8% -5.4% 20.6%
Intermediate Goods -17.7% -9.4% -15.4% -6.6% -12.8% -9.4% 8.6%
Energy -1.4% -0.6% 1.6% 2.9% 1.5% -0.5% 5.9%
--------- Workday adjusted YoY % changes ------------
All Items -12.8% -9.1% -6.7% -2.9% -9.2% -5.8% 0.2%
Consumer Goods -8.3% -8.8% -5.7% -2.1% -9.0% -7.5% 0.3%
Consumer Durables -20.7% -17.9% -16.0% -14.5% -20.5% -10.6% -1.9%
===============================================================================
Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May April
2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008 2008
===============================================================================
Consumer Non-Durables -6.0% -7.3% -4.7% 0.3% -6.8% -6.9% 0.7%
Capital Goods -13.8% -5.7% -10.8% 1.8% -10.1% -3.7% 5.8%
Intermediate Goods -19.4% -14.0% -10.9% -8.2% -12.2% -7.5% -1.9%
Energy -1.9% -2.0% 3.0% 2.4% 1.8% 0.2% -0.7%
===============================================================================
NOTE: Base Year 2000 = 100

SOURCE: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica
(Spanish National Institute of Statistics)

To contact the reporter on this story: Ainhoa Goyeneche in Madrid at agoyenechecu@bloomberg.net





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U.S. Job Losses Probably Reached 26-Year High as Economy Sank

By Bob Willis

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. employers probably cut jobs in November at the fastest pace in a quarter century as the yearlong recession engulfing the world’s largest economy deepened, economists said before a report today.

Payrolls shrank by 333,000 workers last month, the biggest drop since July 1982, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. The jobless rate may have jumped to 6.8 percent, the highest level since 1993.

Job losses are likely to keep cascading into next year as the collapse in credit and slump in spending hurt companies from General Motors Corp. to Citigroup Inc. and AT&T Inc. President- elect Barack Obama, confronting what he called a “crisis of historic proportions,” announced a plan last week to save or create 2.5 million jobs in two years.

“The pace of contraction has really picked up,” said Julia Coronado, a senior economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. The labor market “is in a severe deterioration phase. Job cuts are across the board.”

The Labor Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Payroll estimates of the 73 economists surveyed ranged from losses of 220,000 to 470,000. The jobless rate last month probably rose from 6.5 percent in October.

The 11th consecutive drop in payrolls would follow a 240,000 decline in October and bring the number of jobs eliminated so far this year to more than 1.5 million. Factories probably accounted for about a third of the decline in jobs last month, according to the survey median.

Jobs, Recession

The employment slump was a key factor in determining the start of the recession. The National Bureau of Economic Research, the arbiter of U.S. business cycles, announced this week that a contraction began in December 2007, the month payrolls peaked.

At 12 months, the recession is already the longest since the 16-month slump that ended in November 1982.

Other reports have indicated the labor market is deteriorating. The Institute for Supply Management’s gauge of employment at service industries dropped last month to the lowest level since records began in 1997. Its index for manufacturing jobs fell to a 17-year low.

The declines prompted John Silvia, chief economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina, to raise his forecast for the November payroll loss to 450,000.

First-time jobless claims, a government measure of firings, have held over half a million in each of the last four weeks, the longest stretch since 1982.

More Pessimism

As economic data for last month deteriorated, economists at Goldman Group Inc. were among those marking down estimates for gross domestic product and boosting forecasts for unemployment. The economy will shrink at a 5 percent annual rate this quarter and decline at a 3 percent pace in the first three months of 2009, Goldman’s chief U.S. economist Jan Hatzius said in a note.

Goldman forecasts the jobless rate will climb to 9 percent by late 2009.

The employment report, the second issued since Obama was elected president on Nov. 4, is likely to add to pressures on policy makers to craft additional stimulus measures. Obama named a team that includes New York Federal Reserve Bank President Timothy Geithner as Treasury Secretary-designate and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker as head of a new White House panel aimed at reviving the economy.

“It’s time to not just address the immediate economic threats but to start laying the groundwork for long-term prosperity,” Obama, 47, said Dec. 3 as he announced former energy secretary Bill Richardson as his nominee for Commerce Secretary. “The most significant issue that we are facing right now is how do we put people back to work.”

Auto Slump

U.S. automakers have been particularly hard hit as sales last month dropped to the lowest level in 26 years. The top executives of General Motors, Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC this week appealed to Congress for as much as $34 billion in government assistance.

The Ann Arbor, Michigan-based Center for Automotive Research projects that a collapse of GM would lead to job losses totaling 2.5 million, including 1.4 million people in industries not directly tied to manufacturing. Chrysler yesterday announced it had cut 5,000 jobs last week.

Service companies are also slashing staff. AT&T, the largest U.S. phone company, will cut 12,000 jobs, striving to trim expenses as the U.S. economy falters, the Dallas-based company said in a statement yesterday. Citigroup said last month is plans to eliminate 52,000 jobs worldwide.


                         Bloomberg Survey

================================================================
Nonfarm Unemploy Manu Hourly
Payrolls Rate Payrolls Earnings
,000’s % ,000’s MOM%
================================================================

Date of Release 12/05 12/05 12/05 12/05
Observation Period Nov. Nov. Nov. Nov.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median -333 6.8% -100 0.2%
Average -338 6.8% -93 0.2%
High Forecast -220 7.0% -40 0.3%
Low Forecast -470 6.6% -175 0.1%
Number of Participants 73 72 17 55
Previous -240 6.5% -90 0.2%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -310 6.7% --- 0.2%
Action Economics -350 6.8% -100 0.2%
AIG Investments -298 6.7% --- 0.2%
Aletti Gestielle SGR -333 6.8% -77 ---
Ameriprise Financial Inc -315 6.7% -105 0.2%
Argus Research Corp. -225 6.6% -45 0.3%
Banc of America Securitie -375 6.9% --- 0.2%
Bancolombia SA -337 6.8% --- ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -470 6.6% --- 0.2%
Bantleon Bank AG -340 6.7% --- ---
Barclays Capital -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
BMO Capital Markets -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
BNP Paribas -450 6.8% --- 0.2%
Briefing.com -300 6.7% --- 0.2%
CIBC World Markets -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
Citi -275 6.9% --- 0.2%
ClearView Economics -300 6.7% -90 0.1%
Commerzbank AG -300 6.8% --- 0.2%
Credit Suisse -400 6.8% --- 0.2%
Danske Bank -380 6.8% --- ---
DekaBank -350 6.8% --- 0.1%
Desjardins Group -300 6.7% --- 0.2%
Deutsche Bank Securities -425 7.0% --- 0.2%
Deutsche Postbank AG -320 6.8% --- ---
Dresdner Kleinwort -360 6.8% -130 0.2%
DZ Bank -360 6.8% --- ---
First Trust Advisors -318 6.6% -113 0.2%
Fortis -300 6.6% --- ---
FTN Financial -325 6.8% --- 0.1%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. -400 6.8% --- 0.2%
Helaba -300 6.7% --- 0.2%
Herrmann Forecasting -382 6.8% --- 0.1%
High Frequency Economics -300 6.8% --- 0.2%
Horizon Investments -290 6.8% --- 0.1%
HSBC Markets -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
IDEAglobal -290 6.7% -110 0.2%
IHS Global Insight -370 6.8% --- 0.2%
Informa Global Markets -450 6.8% -175 0.2%
ING Financial Markets -400 6.9% -100 0.2%
Insight Economics -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
Intesa-SanPaulo -330 6.8% --- 0.2%
J.P. Morgan Chase -320 6.7% --- 0.2%
Janney Montgomery Scott L -305 6.7% --- ---
Landesbank Berlin -220 6.6% --- 0.2%
Landesbank BW -350 6.9% --- ---
Lloyds TSB -375 --- --- ---
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc -325 6.7% --- 0.2%
Moody’s Economy.com -325 6.8% -55 0.2%
Morgan Stanley & Co. -350 6.7% --- 0.3%
National Bank Financial -220 6.6% --- ---
National City Corporation -418 6.6% --- 0.2%
Natixis -330 6.7% --- 0.2%
Newedge -340 6.8% -105 0.2%
Nomura Securities Intl. -280 6.8% -40 0.2%
PNC Bank -300 6.8% -75 0.2%
RBC Capital Markets -310 6.6% --- ---
RBS Greenwich Capital -380 6.8% --- 0.2%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -375 6.8% --- ---
Schneider Trading Associa -335 6.8% -109 0.2%
Scotia Capital -400 6.8% --- 0.2%
Societe Generale -300 6.7% --- 0.2%
Standard Chartered -380 6.8% --- ---
Stone & McCarthy Research -325 6.7% -80 0.2%
TD Securities -300 6.8% --- ---
Thomson Financial/IFR -295 6.7% --- 0.2%
Tullett Prebon -350 6.8% --- 0.2%
UBS Securities LLC -325 6.9% --- 0.2%
Unicredit MIB -300 6.7% --- ---
University of Maryland -275 6.7% -80 0.2%
Wachovia Corp. -450 6.7% --- ---
WestLB AG -300 6.8% --- 0.2%
Westpac Banking Co. -340 6.9% --- ---
Wrightson Associates -375 6.8% --- 0.2%
================================================================

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net





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Trichet Under Pressure to Outline Plan for Deflation

By Simon Kennedy

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet is under pressure to outline a plan to revive the euro region’s economy should he be “trapped” into pushing interest rates closer to zero.

Even as Trichet delivers the largest round of rate cuts in the ECB’s history, he hasn’t spelled out a specific approach should conventional tools fail to head off deflation. While he yesterday acknowledged for the first time that unorthodox measures are an option, economists say the lack of detail is a concern.

“The ECB should lean against the wind as deflation talk inevitably becomes widespread,” said Marco Annunziata, chief economist at Unicredit MIB in London. “This would be best achieved by taking the deflation risk seriously, and outlining a contingency plan against it.”

The absence of a public strategy leaves Trichet lagging Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, who said Dec. 1 he may turn to alternative policies such as buying Treasuries after cutting the benchmark rate to 1 percent. Bank of England Governor Mervyn King conceded last month that he may have to coordinate policies with the government if U.K. rates fall to zero.

Trichet instead stresses the need to hold on to as much ammunition as possible before discussing other approaches. At 2.5 percent, the ECB’s main rate is still the highest in the Group of Seven nations even after yesterday’s 75 basis point cut.

Deflation Dismissed

“We have to beware of being trapped at nominal levels that would be much too low,” Trichet told reporters. He dismissed the likelihood of deflation and said only that buying assets was a possibility for the ECB, without elaborating further.

“We are looking at the situation as cautiously and attentively as possible,” Trichet said. “At this stage I have no further indications to give.”

That’s a concern to economists at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. who fret that without a road map for recovery, banks may continue to limit loans to consumers and companies. Seventeen months into the financial crisis, the interbank lending market remains strained, restricting the flow of credit through the economy and stifling growth.

‘Transparency and Predictability’

“Transparency and predictability are needed from the ECB,” said Erik Nielsen, chief European economist at Goldman Sachs in London. “We need to know as much as possible about what could be done even if it’s not likely.”

One step the ECB could consider is buying commercial paper and then government debt, said Royal Bank of Scotland economist Jacques Cailloux. It could even begin buying private assets before rates approach zero, given that monetary policy is less effective when the financial system is frozen, he said.

Bernanke has already started purchasing corporate paper and said this week that the Fed could also “buy longer-term Treasury or agency securities on the open market in substantial quantities.” Fed policy makers may decide at their next meeting Dec. 15-16 on the details of such a shift, which might resemble the “quantitative easing” strategy the Bank of Japan adopted in 2001-2006 when its key rate neared zero.

New Approach

“It’s hugely important that the ECB clarifies what it can and cannot do if the crisis continues,” said Cailloux. “Doing so would send a big confidence signal to markets that the ECB is willing to use unconventional methods to help the economy.”

The purpose of buying securities would be to reduce long- term rates, making it less attractive to hoard cash and more likely that companies and consumers start to stimulate the economy by spending, said Axel Botte, a fund manager at Axa Investment Managers in Paris, which has about $800 billion in assets under management.

“When rates near zero you need to look to alternative methods to get people to spend,” he said.

Trichet and his colleagues still have more time than their counterparts in the U.S., where deflation could emerge in 2010 and interest rates are already on the cusp of zero, said Dario Perkins, an economist at ABN Amro Holding NV in London.

Deflation, or a prolonged decline in prices, is less likely in the euro region because labor market regulations and a lack of competition mean wages and prices are “sticky” and so slower to retreat than those in the U.S., he said.

One reason for not mapping out what more it could do is that the bank’s 21-member Governing Council is split, said Stuart Thomson, who helps oversee $46 billion in bonds at Resolution Investment Management Ltd. in Glasgow, Scotland.

Trichet declined to say whether yesterday’s decision to cut rates by three quarters of a percentage point had been unanimous and council member Yves Mersch said quarter-point cuts are more likely in future.

“I’d like to see the ECB take more leadership but they continue to be a lagging and reactive central bank,” said Thomson.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net





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Apache Can't Guarantee Varanus Supply Return Date

By Jason Scott

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Apache Corp., the U.S. oil and natural-gas producer that operates on five continents, said it can't guarantee its gas plant at Varanus Island off Western Australia will return to full capacity this month.

``Apache will not be drawn on the date when repairs are concluded and gas supplies are returned to pre-incident levels,'' spokesman David Parker said in a phone interview in the state capital Perth today. ``Apache is working toward introducing further gas brought online toward the end of the year.''

The company may still reach full supply by the end of 2008, the goal it said in August it was aiming to achieve, Parker said. He declined to give reasons for any potential delay to full resumption of supplies.

A June 3 explosion at the plant caused fuel shortages in the resource-rich state that generates a third of Australia's exports. Apache resumed two-thirds of supplies from Varanus in August.

The disruption left mining companies and businesses scrambling to secure fuel in a state where gas is burned to produce 60 percent of electricity. Apache declared force majeure, a legal clause that allows a company to miss deliveries because of circumstances beyond its control, on its Western Australia contracts after the explosion.

Many mining companies operating in Western Australia curtailed production because they specifically needed gas as part of the metallurgical process and to produce products such as ammonia nitrate, sodium cyanide and carbon dioxide.

Affected Customers

Apache declined to comment on whether any of its customers were still affected by energy shortages because of the explosion at Varanus Island due to confidentiality agreements, Parker said today. Burrup Holdings Ltd. will not be able to restart production at its Western Australian ammonia factory in early December because of a lack of gas, the Business Spectator reported today.

Australia's National Offshore Petroleum Safety Authority said in a report released on Oct. 10 that the blast was caused by Apache's ineffective protection of a gas pipeline against corrosion and inadequate inspection.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jason Scott in Perth at Jscott14@bloomberg.net





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China's Five Power Producers Had $3.9 Billion Losses

By Wang Ying

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's five biggest power producers lost 26.8 billion yuan ($3.9 billion) in the first 10 months of this year after raw material costs rose and a slowing economy curbed demand, a company official said.

China Huaneng Group, the nation's largest power utility, lost 3.4 billion yuan, while China Datang Corp.'s losses were about 6 billion yuan, said the official from one of the groups, who declined to be named because of company rules. The utilities have informally asked the government for help, he said in Beijing today.

Domestic power output fell 4 percent in October, the first decline since March 2005, according to government data released last month. Coal costs reached a record in July while electricity use dropped as China's economy expanded at the slowest pace since 2003 in the third quarter.

Coal-fired electricity producers may lose more than 70 billion yuan this year as power demand growth falls an estimated 7 percentage points, said a government official. Suppliers will continue to face cost and demand pressures, he said, asking not to be named because of government rules.

China Huadian Corp. recorded a loss of 6.07 billion yuan between January and October, China Guodian Corp. incurred a deficit of 6.55 billion yuan and China Power Investment Corp.'s losses were about 4.85 billion yuan, said the company official. Datang will post a full-year loss, he said.

The country's power demand growth may slow to 8.1 percent this year and 7 percent in 2009, Hao Xiangbin, a director at the Coal Transport and Distribution Association, said in Beijing today. China's electricity production has maintained double-digit growth for at least the last four years.

Huaneng Group said in October it plans to cut annual spending by 5 percent this year because of a ``significant decline'' in nine-month profit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wang Ying in Beijing at ywang30@bloomberg.net;





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Crude Oil May Fall as Recession Cuts Fuel Use, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may fall next week as the first simultaneous recession in the U.S., Europe and Japan since World War II cuts fuel consumption.

Seventeen of 35 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 49 percent, said prices will decline through Dec. 12. Eight respondents, or 23 percent, said oil will rise and 10 forecast markets will be little changed. Last week 37 percent expected futures to decline.

“It’s more of the same, the economy weighing on the oil market,” said Tom Bentz, senior energy analyst at BNP Paribas in New York. “There is no sign where it will stop.”

Prices may dip below $25 a barrel next year if the recession in developed countries spreads to China, Merrill Lynch & Co. said in a report yesterday. U.S. fuel demand fell 5.2 percent in the first 10 months of this year, the biggest drop since 1981, the American Petroleum Institute said last month.

The crude oil contract for January delivery has fallen $10.76, or 20 percent, to $43.67 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures are heading for the biggest one-week drop since the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in March 2003. Prices have dropped 70 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.


     Bloomberg’s survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

RISE NEUTRAL FALL
8 10 17

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.





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Kuwait, Qatar to Lower Crude Oil Shipments in January

By Nesa Subrahmaniyan

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Kuwait and Qatar will reduce crude oil shipments to customers in January as part of production cuts implemented by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, three traders at Asian refiners said.

State-owned Kuwait Petroleum Corp. will end an option for Asian refiners to receive as much as 5 percent more crude oil than their contracts stipulate as OPEC reins in output to reduce a glut, said the traders who received the notices.

The agreements will be amended with effect from January, keeping an option for customers to take as much as 5 percent less than the contracted volume, the traders said, asking not to be identified because of confidentiality agreements.

OPEC, supplier of about 40 percent of the world’s oil, agreed to cut output by 1.5 million barrels a day starting in November and is scheduled to meet in Oran, Algeria Dec. 17 to discuss whether production needs to be curtailed further.

State-owned Qatar Petroleum will cut exports to Asian customers by 5 percent below their contracted volumes, the traders said.

Kuwait pumped 2.55 million barrels of crude oil a day in November, and Qatar’s output was 830,000 barrels a day, according to production estimates compiled by Bloomberg News.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nesa Subrahmaniyan in Singapore at nesas@bloomberg.net





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China's Five Power Producers Had $3.9 Billion Losses

By Wang Ying

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- China's five biggest power producers lost 26.8 billion yuan ($3.9 billion) in the first 10 months of this year after raw material costs rose and a slowing economy curbed demand, a company official said.

China Huaneng Group, the nation's largest power utility, lost 3.4 billion yuan, while China Datang Corp.'s losses were about 6 billion yuan, said the official from one of the groups, who declined to be named because of company rules. The utilities have informally asked the government for help, he said in Beijing today.

Domestic power output fell 4 percent in October, the first decline since March 2005, according to government data released last month. Coal costs reached a record in July while electricity use dropped as China's economy expanded at the slowest pace since 2003 in the third quarter.

Coal-fired electricity producers may lose more than 70 billion yuan this year as power demand growth falls an estimated 7 percentage points, said a government official. Suppliers will continue to face cost and demand pressures, he said, asking not to be named because of government rules.

China Huadian Corp. recorded a loss of 6.07 billion yuan between January and October, China Guodian Corp. incurred a deficit of 6.55 billion yuan and China Power Investment Corp.'s losses were about 4.85 billion yuan, said the company official. Datang will post a full-year loss, he said.

The country's power demand growth may slow to 8.1 percent this year and 7 percent in 2009, Hao Xiangbin, a director at the Coal Transport and Distribution Association, said in Beijing today. China's electricity production has maintained double-digit growth for at least the last four years.

Huaneng Group said in October it plans to cut annual spending by 5 percent this year because of a ``significant decline'' in nine-month profit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Wang Ying in Beijing at ywang30@bloomberg.net;





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