Economic Calendar

Thursday, January 29, 2009

FOMC Looking Towards Expansion

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by AC-Markets | Jan 29 09 10:22 GMT |

Market Brief

The Usd was stronger in the Asian session, despite a rally in equity markets. The EurUsd traded sharply lower from 1.3285 to 1.3042, while the UsdJpy traded between 90.60 and 89.67. The Nzd came under significant selling pressure with NzdUsd falling from 0.5375 to 0.5131, as the RBNZ cut rates more than expected. Asian equity markets closed higher, but European indexes are currently broadly weaker. Commodity prices continue to decline, with gold falling 1.0% and wti crude falling -1.1%. Despite tentative signs of stabilization in the financial system and global economy, we still expect risk aversion to be the dominating theme, which will support the Usd, Jpy and to a lesser extent Chf.

As was widely expected, the Fed held rates steady within a 0%-0.25% target range. In the accompanying statement, the Fed noted it would keep the benchmark rate "exceptionally low" for a protracted period, while noting "the focus of the Committee's policy is to support the functioning of financial markets and stimulate the economy through open market operations and other measures that are likely to keep the size of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet at a high level." In addition, the FOMC comment directly referencing the purchasing long-term Treasury securities helped cement the markets view that the Fed is the most proactive central bank in dealing with the crisis. And in US politics, President Obama's $825bln stimulus plan passed the US House of Representatives. However, the vote was strictly along partisan lines and pundits expect the fight in the Senate to be much tougher (Democrats still lack a filibuster-proof majority).

In New Zealand, the RBNZ cut rates by 150bp to 3.50% (a record low), which were 50bp more than what was widely expected. The accompanying statement and press conference were overly dovish. The main reason for the aggressive easing was the deteriorating global economic environment and the central bank also cited dwindling inflationary pressures. RBNZ Governor Bollard made it very clear that additional cuts would be coming and stated "the RBNZ has plenty of room to move if needed"

ACM FOREX

Disclaimer: This report has been prepared by AC Markets (thereof ACM) and is solely been published for informational purposes and is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any currency or any other financial instrument. Views expressed in this report may be subject to change without prior notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by Salesperson or Traders of ACM at any given time. ACM is under no obligation to update or keep current the information herein, the report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment.





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Forex Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by DeltaStock Inc. | Jan 29 09 10:19 GMT |

EUR/USD

Current level-1.3267

EUR/USD is in a broad consolidation, after bottoming at 1.2331 (Oct.28,2008). Technical indicators are rising, and trading is situated below the 50- and 200-Day SMA, currently projected at 1.3292 and 1.4721.

Monday's break above 1.3080 confirmed, that a short-term bottom has been set at 1.2769 and the pair is in an uptrend towards 1.4135. After yesterday's FOMC statement the pair was vastly sold-off to 1.3102 and currently the downtrend from 1.3328 is intact, with crucial level above 1.3117.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.3328 1.3530 1.3012 1.2769
1.3382 1.3749 1.2943
1.2557

USD/JPY

Current level - 90.19

The pair has finalized its consolidation above 90.95 at 97.48 and the general downtrend has been renewed, targeting 79.86. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 107.61 and 105.76

Still in the broad consolidation above 87.12 and there are no signs of topping so far. Only below 88.43 the piar will enter a fast downtrend towards 86.31 and 83.01. Intraday support comes at 89.46 and nice resistance on the upside is 91.26.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
90.83 93.83 88.35 87.12
91.59 97.48 87.12 83.01

GBP/USD

Current level- 1.4093

The pair is in a the last phase of the downtrend from 2.0153. Trading is situated below the 50- and 200-day SMA, currently projected at 1.5505 and 1.8341.

Monday's break above 1.3911 confirmed, that a local bottom has been set at 1.3506 and currently an uptrend is on the run, towards 1.4620. Keeping in mind, that the internal structure of the rise from 1.3506 is not an impulsive one, but a clearly corrective in nature, we have to accept the current uptrend, being only a corrective phase, a part of the downtrend since 1.5722. Nevertheless, intraday bias is positive, well supported at 1.4021.

Resistance Support
intraday intraweek intraday intraweek
1.4260 1.4374 1.4020 1.3372
1.4374 1.5727 1.3920 1.30+

DeltaStock Inc. - Online Forex & Securities Broker
www.deltastock.com

RISK DISCLAIMER: These analyses are for information purposes only. They DO NOT post a BUY or SELL recommendation for any of the financial instruments herein analyzed. The information is obtained from generally accessible data sources. The forecasts made are based on technical analysis. However, Delta Stock’s Analyst Dept. also takes into consideration a number of fundamental and macroeconomic factors, which we believe impact the price moves of the observed instruments. Delta Stock Inc. assumes no responsibility for errors, inaccuracies or omissions in these materials, nor shall it be liable for damages arising out of any person's reliance upon the information on this page. Delta Stock Inc. shall not be liable for any special, indirect, incidental, or consequential damages, including without limitation, losses or unrealized gains that may result. Any information is subject to change without notice.


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The Sterling Rises And George Soros Says He Is No Longer Shorting The Pound

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Finotec Group | Jan 29 09 09:53 GMT |

The pound rose for a third day against the dollar and climbed versus the euro as Citigroup Inc. recommended buying Lloyds Banking Group Plc shares, easing concern about government aid needed to bail out lenders. The British currency rose to its highest level against the dollar in more than a week as the FTSE 350 Banks Index gained 13 percent. The prospect of further U.K. bank nationalizations is 'exaggerated,' Citigroup said. Billionaire investor George Soros said today he stopped betting pound's decline. Prime Minister Gordon Brown said in Parliament today the U.K. is entering a 'deep recession' and the government will act to soften the effect, suggesting he may be considering a further fiscal stimulus. The GBP/USD is currently trading at $1.4130 as of 8:45am, GMT.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's call for China to loosen restrictions on its currency was criticized by economists and policy makers at the World Economic Forum. Allowing the yuan to strengthen would be 'economic suicide' amid an economic slump, Stephen Roach, Morgan Stanley's Asia Chairman, told a panel in Davos, Switzerland, yesterday. 'I've never seen an economy in recession voluntarily raise their currency. It's horrible advice.' Geithner, who took office this week, said Jan. 22 President Barack Obama believes China is 'manipulating its currency,' suggesting the new administration may take a tougher line with the biggest foreign buyer of U.S. government debt. China's Premier Wen Jiabao said yesterday in Davos he had expressed interest in having 'early contacts' with Obama's administration.

Traders will watch for weekly jobless claims and December durable goods orders later on Thursday, as well as advance fourth-quarter gross domestic product data on Friday, for further clues on the health of the U.S. economy. European Central Bank President Jean- Claude Trichet said the bank's next 'important' meeting will be in March, suggesting policy makers will avoid the interest-rate cut some investors expect next week.

Economic Calendar

Time (GMT) E Event Currency Period Previous Previous Significance
23:50 Industrial Production m/m JPY Dec -8.5% -9.0% **
23:30 Household Spending y/y JPY Dec -0.5% -3.6% **
23:30 Core CPI y/y JPY Jan 0.8% 0.6% **
23:30 Unemployment Rate JPY Dec 3.9% 4.2% **
23:15 Manufacturing PMI JPY Jan 30.8
**
21:45 Building Consents m/m NZD
4.3%

15:00 New Home Sales USD Dec 407K 410K ***
13:30 PPI m/m CAD Dec -2.6%
***
13:30 Core Durable Goods Orders m/m USD Dec 0.6% -2.0% **
13:30 Unemployment Claims USD Weekly 589.0K
***
13:30 Durable Goods Orders m/m USD Dec -1.5% -1.8% ***
10:00 Consumer Confidence EUR Jan -30 -31 ***
09:00 M3 Money Supply y/y EUR Dec 7.8%

08:55 Unemployment Change EUR Jan 18K 30K **
07:00 Nationwide House Prices m/m GB GBP
-2.5%
***

Finotec Group Inc.
http://www.finotec.com/

Disclaimer: FINOTEC Tradings Market Commentaries are provided for informational purposes only. The information contained within these reports is gathered from reputable news sources and not intended as investment advice. FINOTEC Trading assumes no responsibility or liability from gains or losses incurred by the information herein.



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Asian Currencies Drop, Led by Rupiah, Ringgit on Risk Aversion

By Kim Kyoungwha and David Yong

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Indonesia’s rupiah and Malaysia’s ringgit led a decline in Asian currencies on speculation demand for emerging-market assets will wane as a global recession fans risk aversion.

The Bloomberg-JPMorgan Asia Dollar Index, which tracks the region’s 10 most-active currencies excluding the yen, extended this month’s loss after Japan reported the biggest drop in retail sales in almost four years and the International Monetary Fund forecast the world economy will expand at the slowest pace since World War II. The ringgit has lost 4 percent so far in January, set for its worst start to a year since 1998.

“Economic data will continue to be weak for another few months and investment appetite won’t be coming back so quickly,” said Ho Woei Chen, an economist at United Overseas Bank Ltd., Singapore’s second-largest bank by assets. “This will be negative for Asian currencies.”

The Asia Dollar Index fell 0.3 percent to 105.21 as of 5:45 p.m. in Singapore. The ringgit slid 0.3 percent to 3.5980 versus the greenback, the rupiah dropped 0.5 percent to 11,315 and the Philippine peso declined 0.6 percent to 47.195.

Retail sales in Japan, the world’s second-largest economy, fell 2.7 percent from a year earlier in December, the government reported today in Tokyo. Confidence among South Korean manufacturers is near a record low, according to the findings of a Bank of Korea survey published today in Seoul.

The IMF yesterday cut its 2009 global economic growth projection to 0.5 percent, from a November estimate of 2.2 percent. U.S. gross domestic product will contract 1.6 percent, Japan’s will shrink 2.6 percent and the euro area will decline 2 percent in 2009, it forecast.

Fed Bond Purchases

The yen rose from a one-week low against the dollar as U.S. stock futures fell and Japanese shares pared gains, fueling speculation investors will favor the currency as a haven from the credit crisis.

Japan’s currency advanced to 90.14 per dollar from 90.26 in New York late yesterday, when it dropped 1.4 percent.

Malaysia’s ringgit touched a seven-week low of 3.6280 per dollar yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The nation’s economy probably shrank in the final quarter of 2008 amid a slump in commodity prices and exports, UOB’s Ho said.

Crude oil recently traded at $41.68 a barrel in New York, less than half last year’s average price of $99.75, while palm oil fetched 1,790 ringgit ($497) a ton, down from 2,852 ringgit in 2008, according to Bloomberg data. The two products last year accounted for 14 percent of Malaysian exports, which in November dropped the most in almost seven years.

Capital Outflows

Indonesia’s rupiah yesterday reached a six-week low of 11,455 per dollar. Overseas investors have sold a net $126 million worth of the nation’s equities this year, contributing to a 2.3 percent decline in the benchmark Jakarta Composite Index.

“The rupiah is more sensitive to risk aversion than other Asian currencies and there are continual capital outflows,” according to Nizam Idris, a currency strategist at UBS AG in Singapore.

The Philippine peso fell for the first time in four days as the central bank lowered borrowing costs for the second time in six weeks to shore up economic growth, which the government today said slowed to 4.5 percent in the fourth quarter from 5 percent in the third. Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point to 5 percent, a decision predicted by nine of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Won Retreat

South Korea’s won fell, retreating from a one-week high, on concern tighter credit markets and sliding exports will starve the nation’s banks and companies of foreign exchange.

The currency, Asia’s worst performer last year, extended this month’s loss to 8.6 percent, the biggest drop among the 10 most-active regional currencies outside Japan.

“There was a rush of dollar buying by banks towards the close, causing a reversal in the won’s rise,” said Sam Hong, a Seoul-based foreign exchange dealer with Shinhan Bank.

The won slid 0.2 percent to 1,378.50 per dollar, after earlier climbing as high as 1,360, according to Seoul Money Brokerage Services Ltd.

Elsewhere, the Singapore dollar fell 0.4 percent to S$1.5062 versus the greenback and the Thai baht slid 0.1 percent to 34.91. Financial markets in China, Taiwan and Vietnam are closed all of this week for the Lunar New Year holiday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net; David Yong in Singapore at dyong@bloomberg.net.





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U.S. Goods Orders, New-Home Sales Probably Dropped in December

By Shobhana Chandra

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The yearlong recession left no part of the U.S. economy unscathed in December as orders for durable goods probably fell for the fourth time in five months and sales of new houses slumped to a 26-year low, economists said before reports today.

Bookings for goods meant to last several years dropped 2 percent after falling 1.5 percent in November, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Builders probably sold 397,000 homes at an annual pace, the fewest since 1982.

Companies from General Motors Corp. to Caterpillar Inc. are cutting back as a lack of credit and mounting job losses cause consumers to retrench and the worst global downturn in the postwar era stunts demand from overseas. The Federal Reserve yesterday said it was ready to expand efforts to unclog lending, just as the Obama administration works to pass a stimulus plan.

“Companies are responding to the decline in demand by cutting back sharply,” said Kevin Logan, a senior market economist at Dresdner Kleinwort in New York. “There’ll be a pretty severe contraction in the first half” of 2009.

The Commerce Department’s durable-goods report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Projections in the Bloomberg survey of 75 economists ranged from a decline of 6 percent to a gain of 1.3 percent. Excluding transportation equipment, orders were forecast to fall 2.7 percent after a 0.6 percent increase.

At 10 a.m., Commerce figures may show new-home sales dropped 2.5 percent last month from November’s 407,000 rate, according to the median estimate in the Bloomberg survey.

Also at 8:30 a.m., a Labor Department report may show initial claims for jobless benefits fell last week after matching a 26-year high a week earlier, according to the survey.

Fed Action

The Fed yesterday left the benchmark interest rate as low as zero and said it was prepared to purchase Treasury securities to resuscitate lending should circumstances warrant such action. Policy makers also warned that inflation may recede too quickly and that downside risks to growth “are significant.”

Boeing Co., the world’s second-biggest commercial-airplane maker, yesterday said a drop in travel and tight credit indicates customers may continue to cancel or defer orders in 2009. The Chicago-based company reported a fourth-quarter loss and said it plans to cut 10,000 jobs. It also disclosed that a customer canceled all 15 of its orders for the new 787 Dreamliner plane.

The U.S. economy contracted at a 5.5 percent annual pace last quarter, the worst performance since 1982, after shrinking at a 0.5 percent pace in the previous three months, economists project a Commerce report tomorrow will show. A slump in business investment, together with continued declines in consumer spending and housing, accounted for the deterioration.

GM Cutbacks

GM, which already closed most of its 22 plants in North America this month, said it’ll eliminate shifts in the second quarter at plants in Ohio and Michigan, cut about 2,000 jobs, and reduce output at 13 other U.S. and Canadian factories. Chrysler LLC, Ford Motor Co. and Toyota Motor Corp. are also scaling back North American production.

Exports are declining as the global economy faces the first simultaneous recession in the U.S., Japan and the euro region in the postwar era. The International Monetary Fund yesterday projected financial losses worldwide will swell to $2.2 trillion, double the current count, almost bringing economic growth this year to a halt.

Caterpillar, the world’s largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, said this week it is cutting 20,000 jobs and profit this year may trail analysts’ average forecast. The Peoria, Illinois-based company cited “significant order cancellations” in the fourth quarter.

“We are expecting recessionary conditions to persist in most of the world throughout the year,” Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said on a conference call with analysts, adding the company is looking at “seismic adjustments” in 2009 sales and revenue.


                         Bloomberg Survey

================================================================
Durables Durables Initial New Home
Orders Ex-Trans Claims Sales
MOM% MOM% ,000’s ,000’s
================================================================

Date of Release 01/29 01/29 01/29 01/29
Observation Period Dec. Dec. Jan. 24 Dec.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median -2.0% -2.7% 575 397
Average -2.1% -2.6% 581 394
High Forecast 1.3% 0.5% 650 412
Low Forecast -6.0% -4.0% 540 345
Number of Participants 75 43 39 70
Previous -1.5% 0.6% 589 407
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -2.0% -4.0% 545 375
Action Economics -1.5% -2.2% 560 407
AIG Investments -1.0% 0.5% --- 389
Aletti Gestielle SGR 0.5% --- 600 412
Ameriprise Financial Inc -2.2% -2.5% 555 395
Argus Research Corp. -1.3% --- --- 385
Banc of America Securitie -1.5% --- --- 410
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -0.7% --- 570 392
Bantleon Bank AG -2.1% -3.0% --- 390
Barclays Capital -3.0% --- 540 395
BMO Capital Markets -2.0% -3.0% 600 400
BNP Paribas -2.2% --- 650 400
Briefing.com -2.2% --- 580 400
Calyon -2.3% -2.8% --- 402
Castlestone Management LT --- --- 590 ---
CIBC World Markets -3.0% -3.5% --- 399
Citi -2.0% -1.7% 635 395
ClearView Economics -2.0% --- --- 400
Commerzbank AG -3.0% -4.0% 575 400
Credit Suisse -4.0% -4.0% 600 370
Daiwa Securities America -2.0% --- --- 400
DekaBank -1.5% --- --- 370
Desjardins Group -2.0% --- 572 400
Deutsche Bank Securities -4.0% -3.0% --- 400
Deutsche Postbank AG -2.2% -2.7% --- ---
Dresdner Kleinwort -1.6% -2.6% --- 397
DZ Bank -2.0% -3.5% --- 390
First Trust Advisors -2.5% -3.3% 558 395
Fortis -1.5% --- --- ---
FTN Financial -2.5% -1.5% --- 400
Goldman, Sachs & Co. -2.0% --- --- 397
Helaba -2.0% --- 560 400
Herrmann Forecasting -1.7% --- 558 397
High Frequency Economics -2.5% -3.0% 589 400
Horizon Investments -4.0% -2.5% --- 390
HSBC Markets -1.9% -2.3% 550 400
IDEAglobal -1.7% -2.0% 565 400
IHS Global Insight -6.0% --- --- 345
Informa Global Markets -2.0% -2.5% 575 400
ING Financial Markets -2.0% -2.8% --- 395
Insight Economics -1.5% --- 575 400
Intesa-SanPaulo -2.0% -3.0% --- 400
J.P. Morgan Chase -2.8% -3.0% 585 395
Janney Montgomery Scott L -2.8% -3.5% --- 376
Landesbank Berlin -3.4% -2.7% 550 390
Landesbank BW -2.0% --- --- 390
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- --- 600 390
Merrill Lynch -2.0% -3.5% 650 400
MFC Global Investment Man -2.5% -3.0% 570 400
Moody’s Economy.com -1.4% -2.6% 590 410
Morgan Keegan & Co. -1.6% -1.1% --- ---
Morgan Stanley & Co. 1.0% --- --- 390
National Bank Financial -2.5% -3.0% --- 400
National City Bank 1.3% --- --- 371
Natixis -2.5% -2.7% --- 403
Newedge -1.0% --- --- ---
Nomura Securities Intl. -1.1% -1.7% --- 400
Nord/LB -0.5% -2.5% 580 ---
PNC Bank -3.5% --- --- 390
Raymond James -2.1% -2.4% 590 390
RBS Greenwich Capital -4.0% --- --- 350
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -1.5% --- --- 390
Schneider Foreign Exchang -0.9% -1.1% 610 389
Scotia Capital -2.2% -2.4% 590 350
Societe Generale -0.8% -0.8% 540 410
Standard Chartered -2.7% --- --- 405
Stone & McCarthy Research -5.3% --- 590 410
TD Securities -2.0% -3.0% 600 390
Thomson Financial/IFR -3.0% -1.0% 560 395
UBS Securities LLC -2.0% -2.5% --- ---
Unicredit MIB -1.0% --- --- 390
University of Maryland -2.0% --- --- 410
Wachovia Corp. -2.2% -2.8% --- 400
Wells Fargo & Co. -1.5% --- 560 407
WestLB AG -2.0% --- --- 405
Westpac Banking Co. -2.0% --- 600 379
Wrightson Associates -1.5% --- 575 390
================================================================

To contact the report on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington at schandra1@bloomberg.net





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House Vote Sends Obama’s $819 Billion Stimulus Plan to Senate

By Brian Faler

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. House passed President Barack Obama’s $819 billion stimulus package without any Republican votes as lawmakers remained divided over whether the plan would do enough to pull the economy out of recession.

The 244 to 188 vote yesterday sends the measure to the Senate, where Republicans will have more power to demand changes. They are calling for more tax cuts, less spending and a bigger focus on housing in the measure. The chamber is likely to begin work on the plan on Feb. 2. The stimulus measure is separate from the administration’s plan to shore up the banking system, which may cost in excess of $1 trillion.

Obama yesterday urged lawmakers to work out their differences in the next few weeks, saying delay in passing a final bill would cost more people their jobs. “The plan now moves to the Senate and I hope we can continue to strengthen this plan before it gets to my desk,” he said in a statement after the House vote.

In comments to reporters, he said, “The workers who are returning home to tell their husbands and wives and children that they no longer have a job, and all those who live in fear that their job will be next on the cutting blocks, they need help now. They are looking to Washington for action.”

Obama had traveled to Capitol Hill earlier this week to personally lobby for Republican support for the stimulus bill, an effort that included a private session with the party’s House members. He failed to win any converts. In yesterday’s vote, all of the 244 “yes” votes came from Democrats. Voting “no” were 177 Republicans and 11 Democrats.

Cocktail Party

Obama hosted a cocktail party for Democratic and Republican congressional leaders at the Blue Room in the White House last night after the vote. House Minority Leader John Boehner, an Ohio Republican, told Obama that he shouldn’t take the House vote as a rebuke to his outreach effort, according to a Democratic aide with knowledge of the conversation. The aide spoke on condition of anonymity.

The stimulus package, equivalent to one-quarter of the entire federal budget, is aimed at resuscitating an economy that lost 2.6 million jobs last year. The House plan would provide a $500 payroll tax cut for individuals along with $604 billion for infrastructure projects, jobless benefits, education programs, aid to struggling state governments and scores of other initiatives.

The plan grew slightly from $816 billion during House debate on it yesterday when lawmakers approved an amendment budgeting an additional $3 billion for transit projects.

Senate Version

The Senate version of the stimulus bill already differs from the House plan. The Senate Finance Committee voted this week to add a $70 billion alternative-minimum tax cut to the package.

Lawmakers in the two chambers also differ over how much to spend on highway projects, renewable-energy tax breaks and expanding access to broadband.

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican, said the House plan doesn’t include enough tax cuts and that many of them that are in the bill would go to those who don’t pay federal income taxes. He said Republicans want to add provisions aimed at fighting the housing crisis by having the federal government back fixed-rate 4 percent mortgages.

“It’s clear that we need to go directly at the housing problem,” McConnell said. “Republicans have a proposal for lower-interest rate mortgages that we think would help ease the problems that started the economic downturn.”

Republican Complaints

In the House, Republicans complained they were given little chance to offer revisions to the plan’s provisions. They also said they doubted the stimulus plan would work.

“Do not, for one minute, believe that this bill reflects the input of House Republicans,” said Representative Jerry Lewis of California, the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee. The measure is “less about creating jobs and stimulating the economy and more about spending the public’s money.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, dismissed such complaints, saying Republicans were given plenty of opportunities to offer amendments. “Some of the initiatives they have put forth are really the same policies that got us into this terrible economic crisis,” she said. “We will not -- we will not -- be stuck in the past.”

House Democrats made some concessions to Republicans, dropping provisions easing access to contraceptives for Medicaid recipients and deleting money to refurbish the national Mall in Washington that critics said had little to do with revitalizing the economy.

Arts Funding

Democrats held firm on a provision criticized by Republicans that would give the National Endowment for the Arts additional funding.

“People in the arts field are losing their jobs just like anybody else; you have local arts agencies, you have local orchestras, local symphonies, local arts groups of all kinds that are shutting down,” said House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, a Wisconsin Democrat.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office estimated this week that by the end of 2010, the House bill would pump into the economy about $526 billion, slightly less than two-thirds of the package.

The agency said the plan would provide a “substantial” boost to the economy, estimating it will increase the U.S. gross domestic product by 1.2 percent to 3.5 percent by the fourth quarter of 2010 and create between 1.2 million and 3.6 million jobs.

Tax Credits

The bill would expand tax credits for the working poor, make more families eligible for a child tax credit and expand college tuition subsidies. It would let businesses convert losses into tax refunds and provide faster write-offs for purchasing equipment.

Other provisions would provide $40 billion to extend health-care coverage to the jobless, $20 billion for school repairs, $30 billion for highway infrastructure projects, $20 billion for food stamps, $18 billion for Pell college tuition grants and $18.5 billion for energy efficiency and renewable energy programs.

Republicans complained the plan included items unrelated to boosting the economy, including $1 billion for the 2010 census and $400 million to study global warming.

Other provisions would require that the iron and steel used in construction projects funded by the bill be produced in the U.S. unless the material proved unavailable or prohibitively expensive.

The bill is H.R. 1.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Faler in Washington at bfaler@bloomberg.net





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New Zealand Dollar Drops to 6-Year Low, Australia’s Also Falls

By Candice Zachariahs

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- New Zealand’s dollar dropped to a six-year low after the central bank cut interest rates by a larger-than-forecast 1.5 percentage point, reducing the appeal of the nation’s assets. The Australian currency also fell.

The currencies fell as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand slashed rates to a record low 3.5 percent in a decision that was forecast by three of 13 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Traders are betting Australia’s central bank will cut it cash target 1 percentage point to 3.25 percent when it meets Feb. 3.

“It has been a surprise for the market and we’ve seen the currency fall quite dramatically on the back of that,” said Danica Hampton, a currency strategist at Bank of New Zealand Ltd. in Wellington. “The currency will remain under pressure.”

New Zealand’s dollar slid as low as 51.53 U.S. cents, the weakest since December 2002, before trading at 51.84 cents as of 4:11 p.m. in Sydney. It bought 46.57 yen from 47.06 yesterday in late Asian trading.

Australia’s currency fell 0.9 percent to 66.01 U.S. cents from 66.62 cents late in Asia yesterday. The currency fell 0.3 percent to 59.32 yen. It strengthened to NZ$1.2786, the highest since August 2008, before trading at NZ$1.2736, up 0.8 percent from yesterday.

Higher interest rates in New Zealand and Australia, compared with as low as zero in the U.S. and 0.1 percent in Japan, attract investors to the South Pacific nations’ higher-yielding assets. The risk in such trades is that currency market moves will erase profits.

Current Account Deficit

“As interest rates go lower in New Zealand the financing of its current account deficit (over 8 percent of GDP) will come more into focus and weigh on the currency,” wrote a team of analysts at Barclays Capital led by Singapore-based David Forrester. Barclays forecasts the so-called kiwi will drop as low as 48 U.S. cents.

It may fall to NZ$1.30 per Australian dollar in the coming weeks especially if the RBA is less aggressive than market expectations, the analysts wrote.

A Credit Suisse Group index based on overnight swaps trading shows the market is betting on a 1 percentage point cut from the RBA. That would take the rate to the lowest since the bank started setting cash rate targets in 1990 and to the cheapest benchmark borrowing cost since 1964. Rates in Australia are now higher than in neighboring New Zealand for the first time since January 2004.

Standard & Poor’s lowered the outlook for New Zealand’s foreign-currency credit rating on Jan. 13 citing concern that the nation’s current account deficit and overseas debt may curb growth and investment.

New Zealand dollar has fallen 11 percent against the dollar and yen this year, adding to last year’s declines of 24 percent and 39 percent, respectively. Australia’s currency has weakened 6 percent versus the dollar and 7 percent against the yen in January, adding to losses last year of 20 percent and 35 percent.

Better Sentiment

The Australian and New Zealand currencies earlier advanced against the dollar and yen as the Standard & Poor’s 500 index rose for a fourth day, its longest stretch of gains since November. The U.S. House of Representatives yesterday passed President Obama’s $819 billion stimulus package, bolstering investor appetite for higher-yielding assets.

“We’ve had an improvement in sentiment toward the global economy linked to hopes of more aggressive policy responses, particularly in the U.S.,” said John Kyriakopoulos, head of currency strategy at National Australia Bank Ltd. in Sydney. The Australian dollar could “gain modestly” and advance toward 68.5 cents over the next week, he said.

U.S. policy makers held their target lending rate in a range of zero to 0.25 percent.

New Zealand’s two-year swap rate, a fixed payment made to receive floating rates, dropped to 3.33 percent from 3.51 yesterday, after the central bank signaled further reductions ahead.

Market participants expect the benchmark rate “will go a little lower then trough and they may be correct in that,” RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said.

Australian government bonds declined. The yield on the 10- year note rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 4.08 percent, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The price of the 5.25 percent security due March 2019 fell 0.218, or A$2.18 per A$1,000 face amount, to 109.601.

To contact the reporter on this story: Candice Zachariahs in Sydney at czachariahs2@bloomberg.net





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Yen, Dollar Strengthen as Fed Stops Short of Buying Treasuries

By Lukanyo Mnyanda and Stanley White

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and the dollar rose after the Federal Reserve declined to provide more information about buying Treasuries to help boost the economy, fueling speculation investors will favor the currencies as a refuge.

The euro dropped the most in almost a week against the dollar after European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet signaled yesterday policy makers won’t lower interest rates before March, stoking concern the region’s slowdown will be prolonged. New Zealand’s dollar declined to a six-year low versus the U.S. currency after the country’s central bank cut the official cash rate more than most economists forecast.

“The Fed was a bit more cautious than people expected and the dollar rose accordingly,” said Neil Mellor, a currency strategist in London at Bank of New York Mellon Corp., the world’s biggest custodian of financial assets. “The world is going to have to get used to a stronger yen.”

The yen strengthened to 117.55 per euro as of 9:41 a.m. in London, from 118.88 yesterday in New York. The euro lost as much as 1.1 percent versus the dollar, the most since Jan. 23, and was at $1.3047, from $1.3166 yesterday. The yen was at 90.08 versus the dollar, from 90.26 yesterday, when it weakened to a one-week low of 90.75.

The Japanese currency may trade between 85 and 90 per dollar and about 115 to the euro this quarter, Mellor said.

New Zealand’s dollar traded at 51.43 U.S. cents, from 52.43 cents yesterday. The kiwi, as the currency is known, earlier touched 51.31 cents, the lowest level since December 2002. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its target lending rate by 1.5 percentage points today.

Fed Policy

The Fed kept its target rate for overnight loans between banks in a range of zero to 0.25 percent at a meeting yesterday.

Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures fell 1.6 percent and Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index lost 1.9 percent. The cost of protecting the region’s corporate bonds from default rose.

“We continue to expect a return to risk aversion to lead to a stronger dollar and yen,” analysts led by David Woo of Barclays Plc wrote in a research note today. “We maintain our view that it will be difficult for equities for rally while bad assets remain on banks’ balance sheets.”

The Fed last cut its target lending rate Dec. 16 and shifted its focus to the amount and type of debt it buys, seeking to revive credit markets after financial institutions worldwide posted $1 trillion in losses on mortgage-related securities since the start of 2007. The central bank began this month a $500 billion program to buy Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and Ginnie Mae mortgage securities, pushing down the yields on mortgage bonds relative to Treasuries.

Trichet on Rates

ECB President Trichet said yesterday in an interview on Bloomberg Television in Davos, Switzerland, that “very, very low” interest rates “have some inconveniences.”

He reiterated that the ECB’s next important meeting is in March, signaling policy makers won’t cut interest rates next week. The central bank lowered its benchmark rate on Jan. 15 by a half-percentage point to 2 percent, matching a record low.

The euro also dropped before a European Commission report economists say will show business and consumer sentiment fell to a record low. The index of executive and consumer sentiment declined to 65.4 in January, the lowest since it started in 1985, according to a Bloomberg News survey of 10 economists. The report is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. in Brussels.

“Any upside surprise in today’s raft of sentiment indicators from the European Commission could give some more muscle to the euro,” a team of Societe Generale SA strategists led by Vincent Chaigneau in London wrote in a report today. “However, any such strength is unlikely to be sustained.”

The odds the ECB will lower its 2 percent main rate by a quarter-percentage point at its Feb. 5 meeting were 65 percent today, according to a Credit Suisse Group index based on overnight swaps.

The Japanese yen may weaken against the U.S. dollar and eight more of the world’s most-traded currencies as riskier foreign-exchange trades revive, Citigroup Inc. analysts said, citing technical charts.

The U.S. dollar looks to be forming a so-called double bottom, meaning any advance above 94.65 yen probably would be followed by a surge to as high as 102 yen, analysts led by New York-based Tom Fitzpatrick, Citigroup’s chief technical analyst, said in a report dated yesterday.

A double bottom forms when a security makes two consecutive troughs of about the same depth, and indicates potential for a rebound.

To contact the reporters on this story: Lukanyo Mnyanda in London at lmnyanda@bloomberg.net; Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net





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Aluminum Resumes Drop in London as Surplus Output May Increase

By Claudia Carpenter

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Aluminum resumed this month’s decline in London on speculation that surplus production of the metal will increase and add to record stockpiles.

Aluminum inventories in London Metal Exchange-monitored warehouses have almost tripled in the past year to more than 2.7 million metric tons, the highest since the contract started in 1978. Sanford C. Bernstein Ltd. today lowered its aluminum price forecast for this year to $1,700 a ton from $2,260 a ton.

“The delivery of metal onto exchange has been extraordinary,” London-based analyst Andrew Keen wrote in the report. “Worryingly, metal inventories do not show much indication of slowing.”

Aluminum for delivery in three months dropped $6, or 0.4 percent, to $1,360 a ton as of 8:35 a.m. on the London Metal Exchange. The metal has slipped 12 percent this year, the biggest decline among industrial metals on the exchange. Prices rose 1.9 percent yesterday.

Since October 2008, inventories have climbed more than 1.3 million tons, or 10 percent of quarterly demand, according to Bernstein.

“The sudden appearance of 1.3 million tons could potentially relate to an off-warrant stock financing deal that has reached its conclusion or been terminated as holders of metal have sought liquidity or wanted to exit their positions before prices fell,” Keen wrote. Off-warrants indicate metal will be withdrawn from LME-registered warehouses.

The LME index of six industrial metals rose 1.1 percent yesterday in line with gains in equities in Europe, Asia and the Americas stemming from speculation that U.S. efforts to support the banking system may spur investor demand. The U.K. benchmark FTSE 100 equity index fell 0.7 percent today while the Nikkei 225 index gained 1.8 percent in Tokyo.

Copper declined $65, or 2 percent, to $3,265 a ton, nickel dropped $125, or 1.1 percent, to $11,625 a ton and tin fell $345, or 3 percent, to $11,100 a ton. Lead dropped $2.75, or 0.2 percent, to $1,142.25 a ton and zinc fell $22, or 1.9 percent, to $1,123 a ton.

To contact the reporter on this story: Claudia Carpenter in London at ccarpenter2@bloomberg.net





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India Cuts Rubber Demand, Output Estimates on Global Recession

By Thomas Kutty Abraham

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Natural rubber demand in India, the fourth-biggest producer, may lag behind a previous forecast as demand from tire producers weakens on declining vehicle sales.

Consumption will total 862,000 metric tons in the year to March compared with 899,000 tons estimated in April 2008, Sajen Peter, chairman of the state-owned Rubber Board of India said in a phone interview from Agartala in north east India.

Natural rubber prices in Tokyo have slumped 57 percent in the past six months on concerns the global recession will weaken demand for the commodity used in tires. Commercial vehicle sales in India fell 16 percent during April-December period, according to Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

“We may see a pick up in demand from 2010 when the global economy is expected to recover because of government spending,” Peter said.

Waning demand may boost stockpiles to 198,000 tons by March, 21 percent more from a year ago, said G. Mohana Chandran, joint director at the state-owned Rubber Board.

February-delivery rubber on India’s National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange Ltd. gained 10 rupees to 7,025 rupees per 100 kilograms yesterday. Prices may trade between 70 rupees to 130 rupees a kilogram by year-end, Peter said.

Production in the year ending March may fall to 861,000 tons, less than the 875,000 tons estimated in April, Peter said. Output totaled 669,080 tons in the April-December period.

Exports this year may total 48,000 tons, up from 41,000 tons shipped till the end of December.

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net.





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Gold Falls for 3rd Day in London on Dollar, Lower Haven Demand

By Nicholas Larkin

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Gold fell for a third day in London as a stronger dollar and U.S. measures to ease the financial crisis eroded demand for the metal as an alternative investment and haven.

The Federal Reserve said yesterday it was prepared to buy Treasury securities to improve credit markets, while the U.S. House passed President Barack Obama’s $819 billion stimulus package, which now moves to the Senate. The dollar rose as much as 1 percent against the euro. Bullion typically moves in the opposite direction to the U.S. currency.

“The dollar is a little bit stronger,” pulling gold prices down, said Alex MacKinnon, a trader at ODL Securities Ltd., by phone from London today. “The safe-haven status for gold has come off” the past few days, he said.

Bullion for immediate delivery slipped as much as $10.40, or 1.2 percent, to $877.15 an ounce and traded at $878.76 by 9:13 a.m. in London. April futures fell $9.90, or 1.1 percent, to $880.10 in electronic trading on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Gold dropped the most in two weeks yesterday after stocks gained globally as Obama’s administration prepared a plan to set up a so-called bad bank to buy toxic financial assets.

Among other metals for immediate delivery in London, silver declined 2.1 percent to $11.7525 an ounce. Platinum lost $9, or 0.9 percent, to $947.50 an ounce, and palladium was 1.2 percent lower at $188.25 an ounce.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Larkin in London at nlarkin1@bloomberg.net





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Corn, Soybeans Decline as Rain May Improve South American Crops

By Jae Hur

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Corn and soybeans fell on speculation that forecast rain in South America may improve crops affected by drought in the past month. Wheat also dropped.

Before today, corn fell 1.5 percent this week and soybeans 2.6 percent, with both prices touching the lowest in almost two weeks. Brazil and Argentina are the biggest exporters of corn and soybeans after the U.S.

“The market was under pressure from easing dry weather concern for crops in Argentina and Brazil,” Toshimitsu Kawanabe, an analyst at Central Shoji Co. in Tokyo, said today. “With few fresh fundamental developments, people are watching demand for soybeans after the Chinese New Year holiday.” Markets in China are closed this week for the vacation.

Corn for March delivery was down 0.9 percent at $3.8125 a bushel at 2:11 p.m. in Singapore after trading between $3.81 and $3.8425. The contract gained 1.9 percent yesterday on speculation President Barack Obama’s stimulus plan will stoke economic growth and demand for grain. Prices have fallen 52 percent from a record $7.9925 in June.

Soybeans for March delivery fell 6 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $9.765 a bushel after trading as low as $9.76. The most-active contract is down 40 percent from an all-time high of $16.3675 on July 3.

Rain Forecast

About 10 percent of Argentina’s growing region will receive up to 2 inches (5.3 centimeters) of rain in the next seven days, providing limited drought relief, Allen Motew, director of meteorology for QT Information Systems in Chicago, said yesterday. Reduced humidity and wind currents led to lower rain forecasts for the next two weeks, Motew said in a note to clients.

The U.S. House of Representatives passed Obama’s proposed $819 billion economic stimulus package yesterday. The plan is aimed at lifting the economy out of a recession through tax cuts and $604 billion in spending.

The 244-188 vote sends the measure to the Senate where Republicans, who want more tax cuts and less spending, will have more power to demand changes. Senate Democrats also are calling for alterations to the plan.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added as much as 1.6 percent to 84.85, gaining for a third day. Crude oil for March delivery fell 1.3 percent at $41.60 a barrel after rising 1.4 percent yesterday. The dollar rose 0.5 percent against the euro to $1.3102.

Meantime, South Korea’s Nonghyup Feed Inc. bought 110,000 metric tons of corn for feed production yesterday, according to two industry executives who participated in the tender. Cargill Inc. sold the grain at $197.70 a ton on a cost and freight basis for April arrival, said the executives, who asked not to be identified because the results are confidential.

Wheat for March delivery was down 0.7 percent at $5.9125 a bushel at 2:10 p.m. Singapore time after gaining 1.8 percent yesterday. Prices have tumbled 56 percent from a record $13.495 on Feb. 27.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jae Hur in Singapore at jhur1@bloomberg.net





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Indian Stocks Decline on Lower Earnings; Automakers Advance

By Pooja Thakur

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Indian stocks fell, with the key index snapping a two-day 6.7 percent rally on concern lower-than- expected corporate earnings will drag shares lower.

Wipro Ltd., India’s third-largest software developer, fell 3.9 percent. Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd., the nation’s largest drugmaker, dropped 2.8 percent.

“Earnings have been disappointing,” said Mahesh Patil, who manages $8.8 billion at Birla Sunlife Asset Management in Mumbai. “Revenues have contracted and cost pressures are high, now with demand declining it will create a problem.”

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd., the largest local maker of sport- utility vehicles, added 3.7 percent, leading automakers higher after the government cut retail fuel prices for the second time in less than two months.

The Bombay Stock Exchange’s Sensitive Index, or Sensex, fell 34.79, or 0.4 percent, to 9,222.68 as of 3:21 p.m. local time. The S&P CNX Nifty Index on the National Stock Exchange fell 36.30, or 1.3 percent, to 2,813.30.

The following are among the most active shares traded on the Bombay and National stock exchanges. Stock symbols are in parentheses after company names:

Asian Paints (India) Ltd. (APNT IN) dropped 29.65 rupees, or 3.8 percent, to 750.95, its lowest since April 2007. The nation’s largest paintmaker reported that its founders pledged a 15 percent stake following tightened disclosure norms.

GAIL India Ltd. (GAIL IN) slid 5.20 rupees, or 2.6 percent, to 196.05. India’s monopoly natural gas distributor said yesterday third-quarter profit declined 59 percent to 2.53 billion rupees. That was below the 5.9 billion rupees median estimate of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Power Grid Corp. (PWGR IN) declined 2.45 rupees, or 2.7 percent, to 88.60. India’s biggest electricity transmission company reported a 3 percent decline in third-quarter profit to 3.72 billion rupees.

Reliance Power Ltd. (RPWR IN) added 1.25 rupees, or 1.2 percent, to 103.85. The unit of India’s third-largest power generator may win its third so-called ultra mega power project with the lowest bid to build a 4,000 megawatt electricity generation plant. Reliance Power quoted a price of less than 2 rupees a unit to sell power from the coal-fired project in Jharkhand state, said an official of the state-run Power Finance Corp., which manages the bidding on behalf of India’s Power Ministry.

To contact the reporter on this story: Pooja Thakur in Mumbai at 9032 or pthakur@bloomberg.net





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Japan Stocks Advance as Financial Concerns Ease; NTT Declines

By Masaki Kondo

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Japanese stocks gained, driving the Nikkei 225 Stock Average to its longest winning streak in three weeks, on expectations central bank efforts to unlock credit markets will ease the global financial crisis.

Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc., Japan’s biggest listed bank, jumped 4.8 percent on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s plan to buy longer-term Treasury bonds. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. soared 13 percent even after bad-loan costs decimated third- quarter profit. Honda Motor Co., which gets more than half its profit in North America, jumped 3.9 percent after the yen fell against the dollar. Nippon Telegraph & Telephone Corp. dived 3.3 percent as investors fled domestic-oriented shares on speculation Japan’s recovery will trail that of other countries.

The Nikkei 225 gained ground for a third day, climbing 144.95, or 1.8 percent, to close at 8,251.24 in Tokyo, its longest winning streak since Jan. 7. The broader Topix index rose 14.14, or 1.8 percent, to 818.47.

“Buying long-term government bonds will prevent interest rates from rising and damaging demand and the economy,” said Kiyoshi Ishigane, a Tokyo-based senior strategist at Mitsubishi UFJ Asset Management Co., which oversees about $61 billion. “By doing what’s usually a no-no, the Fed is making it clear authorities will pull out all the stops to prop up the deteriorating economy.”

Stimulus Plans

The Nikkei lost a record 42 percent last year as writedowns and credit losses surpassed $1 trillion at global financial companies, and the gauge has lost another 6.9 percent in 2009. The U.S. House yesterday passed President Barack Obama’s $819 billion stimulus plan a day after Japan’s Parliament approved Prime Minister Taro Aso’s $53 billion economic package.

More than two-thirds of the Nikkei’s members trade at below market value, according to Bloomberg data. The dividend yield for Nikkei constituents is an estimated 2.5 percent, almost twice the return on 10-year Japanese government bonds and lower than the 3 percent dividend yield for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index.

The Fed is ready to buy longer-term Treasury securities to encourage lending, the Federal Open Market Committee said after leaving its benchmark interest rate as low as zero. New Zealand’s central bank today cut its key interest rate to a record low and said there’s room to cut rates further.

Banks, Insurers

Mitsubishi UFJ jumped 4.8 percent to 527 yen, and Sumitomo Mitsui, Japan’s third biggest listed bank, gained 13 percent to 3,810 yen, despite its 99 percent plunge in third-quarter net income because of losses on stockholdings and non-performing loans. Tokio Marine Holdings Inc., the nation’s largest nonlife insurer, leapt 8.8 percent to 2,585 yen, the highest close in three weeks, and consumer lender Promise Co. climbed 7.4 percent to 1,736 yen.

Insurers, banks and consumer lenders were the biggest winners among 33 industry groups on the Topix.

The Fed’s announcement helped the dollar strengthen to as much as 90.66 yen today from 89.22 at the close of stock trading in Tokyo yesterday. A weaker yen raises the value of repatriated sales for Japanese companies.

Honda, Japan’s No. 2 automaker, leapt 3.9 percent to 2,280 yen, and Toyota Motor Corp., the biggest automaker globally, added 2.4 percent to 3,050 yen. Sony Corp. rose 4 percent to 1,909 yen, while Canon Inc., the world’s biggest digital-camera maker, climbed 1.9 percent to 2,640 yen even after forecasting profit will fall to a decade low this year.

The yen appreciated to as much as 89.67 against the dollar in the afternoon, paring gains by car and electronics stocks.

‘Too Little’

Nippon Telegraph & Telephone, Japan’s biggest provider of fiber-optic networks, lost 3.3 percent to 4,340 yen, sending a gauge of telecommunication companies to the biggest drop among Topix groups. Closest rival KDDI Corp. sank 1.9 percent to 564,000 yen after Deutsche Bank AG lowered its rating to “hold” from “buy,” saying demand for fiber-optic network services will recede as the economy worsens.

“Japan’s stimulus plan is too little and too late,” said Mitsubishi UFJ’s Ishigane. “The Japanese government isn’t taking the dramatic steps that other countries are to bolster the economy, so it’s not surprising investors are shifting to exporters from domestic-oriented shares.”

Japan’s Trade Ministry today said retail sales fell in December by the most in almost four years as households reduced spending and became more concerned about job security.

Nikkei futures expiring in March gained 1.1 percent to 8,200 in Osaka and rose 1.2 percent to 8,215 in Singapore.

To contact the reporter for this story: Masaki Kondo in Tokyo at mkondo3@bloomberg.net.





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Asian Stocks Rise for Third Day on Policies to Revive Growth

By Shani Raja

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Asian stocks rallied for a third day, led by banks and commodity producers, on optimism lower interest rates and U.S. stimulus measures will revive the global economy.

HSBC Holdings Plc, which gets a quarter of its sales in the U.S., surged 8.4 percent in Hong Kong as bond risk fell and President Barack Obama moved closer to winning passage for an $819 billion stimulus package. Westpac Banking Corp., New Zealand’s No. 2 lender, jumped 6.3 percent in Wellington as the nation’s central bank cut its benchmark rate. BHP Billiton Ltd., gained 2.7 percent as oil and metal prices rose.

“There’s more confidence that the world hasn’t ended, and that under the new U.S. government the mess may get sorted out,” said Hugh Dive, who helps manage about $3 billion at Sydney-based Investors Mutual Ltd. “It will still take a while for it all to flow through.”

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 1.4 percent to 84.67 as of 4:43 p.m. in Tokyo. Five stocks advanced for every two that fell on the gauge, which has fallen 5.5 percent this year on mounting signs the global recession is hurting company profits.

The Nikkei 225 Stock Average gained 1.8 percent. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index climbed 5 percent following a three-day holiday for the Lunar New Year. China and Taiwan are shut this week. All markets in the region rose except Thailand and the Philippines.

Sony Corp., the world’s second-largest consumer-electronics maker, rose in Tokyo on speculation the latest stimulus plans will help boost consumer demand in the U.S. Ayala Land Inc., the Philippines’ biggest property company, was the MSCI Asia index’s second-worst performer on concern housing demand will decline.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index climbed 3.4 percent yesterday after a White House official said President Barack Obama may announce a plan next week to set up an institution to buy toxic financial assets. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.5 percent.

Global Recession

After the market closed in New York, the U.S. House passed Obama’s $819 billion stimulus plan, aimed at lifting the economy out of recession through tax cuts and new spending. The plan will be put to a vote by the Senate.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index tumbled by a record 43 percent last year as the worsening financial crisis dragged the world’s biggest economies into recession. The average valuation of companies on the MSCI gauge has fallen by 38 percent in the past year to 10 times reported profit.

Global growth will almost grind to a halt this year as more than $2 trillion of bad assets from the U.S. weigh on economies worldwide, an International Monetary Fund report said. Federal Reserve officials yesterday warned of a prolonged slowdown that may push the U.S. to the brink of deflation.

Policy Action

“The IMF’s global growth forecasts have highlighted how severe the global economic slump is,” said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, which holds $61 billion in Sydney. “The difference from previous global downturns is that all major countries and regions are sliding together.”

The Fed, which left its benchmark interest rate at close to zero yesterday, said it’s ready to buy Treasury securities if it’s effective in improving credit markets.

The bond plan and New Zealand’s interest-rate cut mark the latest step in a series of measures introduced by governments around the world to unlock frozen credit markets and revive economic growth.

HSBC surged 8.4 percent to HK$62.25. Mizuho Financial Group jumped 5.2 percent to 245 yen. Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc. soared 13 percent to 3,810 yen, even after third-quarter profit almost evaporated on bad-loan costs.

Lower Borrowing Costs

Westpac jumped 6.3 percent to NZ$20.30. Commonwealth Bank of Australia, which gets 14 percent of its sales from New Zealand, gained 2.2 percent to A$26.90 in Sydney.

The Markit iTraxx Asia credit-default swap index and the Markit iTraxx Japan index, which measure the cost of protecting Asia-Pacific bonds from default, fell today, according to prices from ICAP Plc and Barclays Plc.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today lowered the benchmark interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 3.5 percent and said there’s room for further reductions.

Asian exporters gained on optimism the U.S. government measures will shore up consumer demand. Yue Yuen Industrial (Holdings) Ltd., which supplies athletic shoes to Nike Inc. and Adidas AG, climbed 3.1 percent to HK$13.50.

Sony gained 4 percent to 1,909 yen. Canon, the world’s largest camera maker, rose 1.9 percent to 2,640 yen. Canon yesterday forecast lower profit as product prices fall.

BHP, Cnooc

BHP, Australia’s largest oil company, gained 2.7 percent to A$30.65. Cnooc Ltd., China’s biggest offshore oil company, added 5.5 percent to HK$6.86. PetroChina Co., China’s largest producer, jumped 5.6 percent to HK$5.89.

Crude oil for March delivery rose 1.4 percent in New York yesterday, the first advance in three days, while a gauge of six metals traded in London gained 1.1 percent.

Hyundai Steel Co., South Korea’s second-largest steelmaker, advanced 6.3 percent to 37,400 won. Korea Zinc Co., the world’s second-biggest zinc refiner, gained 3.4 percent to 90,900 won after Daewoo Securities Co. raised its recommendation on the stock to “buy” from “trading buy,” citing signs non-ferrous metals prices are bottoming out.

Ayala slumped 7.1 percent to 6.50 pesos. The Philippine central bank will probably cut its benchmark interest rate by half a percentage point today, according to economists in a Bloomberg News survey, to bolster growth.

“Very few people can afford to buy homes at this time,” said Jonathan Ravelas, a market strategist at Banco de Oro Unibank Inc. in Manila. “Jobs are getting threatened.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Shani Raja in Sydney at sraja4@bloomberg.net.





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NYSE and BIDS Start New York Exchange Block Trading Platform

By Alexis Xydias

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- NYSE Euronext’s New York Stock Exchange will today start a new block trading platform that allows traders to execute large transactions in anonymity.

The New York Block Exchange is a joint venture between the operator of the New York bourse and BIDS Holdings LP, an equity trading network owned by 11 brokerage firms, the partners said in a release dated Jan. 26.

Block trades, often transactions of 10,000 shares or more, have dropped by half at the New York Stock Exchange since 2006.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alexis Xydias in London at axydias@bloomberg.net.





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U.K. Stocks Decline, Led by Xstrata, Rio Tinto; Cookson Falls

By Sarah Jones

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- U.K. stocks retreated, led by a sell off in mining companies after Xstrata Plc said it plans to raise $5.8 billion to pay down debt and buy assets.

Xstrata plunged 15 percent after Europe’s largest zinc producer said it plans to raise the cash in a two-for-one rights offer. Rio Tinto Group and BHP Billiton Ltd. fell more than 5 percent. Cookson Group Plc tumbled 26 percent after the company announced plans to raise money in a share sale to reduce debt.

The benchmark FTSE 100 slipped 45.12, or 1.1 percent, to 4,250.08 at 8:38 a.m. in London. The broader FTSE All-Share Index lost 1 percent, while Ireland’s ISEQ Index retreated 2 percent.

Xstrata dropped 90.5 pence to 532.5 pence, the steepest fall in more than three months. The company announced plans to raise 4.1 billion pounds ($5.8 billion) in a rights offer to pay down debt and buy Colombian coal assets from Glencore International AG, its largest shareholder. Xstrata will offer investors about 1.96 billion shares at 210 pence each.

Rio Tinto, which yesterday did not rule out the “potential to issue equity” to help cut debt by $10 billion, fell 5.9 percent to 1,519 pence. BHP, the world’s largest mining company, lost 5.1 percent to 1,255 pence.

Cookson plunged 22.5 pence to 62.50 pence, the lowest since at least 1988. The world’s biggest maker of ceramic linings for metal smelters announced plans to raise about 240 million pounds in a share sale to reduce debt and remain within banking terms.

-- Editors: Roger Neill

To contact the reporters on this story: Sarah Jones in London at sjones35@bloomberg.net.





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