By Shobhana Chandra
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. probably rose in June as Americans spent tax rebates and record gasoline prices boosted receipts at service stations, economists said before a government report today.
Purchases increased 0.4 percent after a 1 percent gain the prior month, according to the median estimate of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. A separate report may show food and fuel pushed up wholesale prices.
Consumers flocked to discounters including Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Costco Wholesale Corp. to stretch the buying power of the government's stimulus checks as home values fell, fuel prices surged and firings mounted. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, facing a pickup in inflation and slower growth, is also scheduled to testify before Congress today.
``The stimulus payments will boost spending again, as they did in May,'' said Brian Bethune, an economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. ``The worry for the future is that sales will fall back, in line with increasingly gloomy fundamentals.''
The Commerce Department's retail sales report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Forecasts ranged from a drop of 0.4 percent to a gain of 1.5 percent.
Also at 8:30 a.m., Labor Department figures may show prices paid to producers climbed 1.4 percent last month, matching May's gain, according to the survey median. Wholesale costs in the 12 months through June probably rose by the most since 1981.
Other reports today are forecast to show that inventories climbed in May and manufacturing in New York contracted this month for the fifth time since February.
Bernanke Testimony
Bernanke, who cut interest rates this year at the most aggressive pace in two decades, will testify before the Senate today as part of the central bank's semi-annual report on the economy.
The retail report may also show Americans are shunning big- ticket purchases. Sales excluding automobiles increased 1 percent in June, according to the survey median. Cars and light trucks sold in June at a 13.6 million annual pace, the weakest since 1993, according to industry data issued earlier this month.
Gasoline service-station receipts probably jumped. Regular unleaded fuel prices topped $4 a gallon for the first time in June and have continued climbing this month, according to AAA.
Rising energy costs erode households' purchasing power and add to the risk that companies will try to raise prices, triggering a broader pickup in inflation.
Growth Forecasts
The twin concerns may prompt Fed policy makers to keep interest rates unchanged this year, a Bloomberg survey last week showed. Economic growth will slow to a 0.5 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter, the weakest pace in six years, and consumer spending will post the smallest gain since 1991, according to the economists surveyed.
The government distributed $86.1 billion in stimulus checks through July 4, out of a total plan of about $110 billion. Rebate-linked promotions boosted sales at retail stores open at least a year to a better-than-forecast 4.3 percent gain in June, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers.
Wal-Mart's same-store sales jumped 5.8 percent, the most in four years. The Bentonville, Arkansas-based company's U.S. discount stores and its Sam's Club membership warehouses drew additional customers who spent more on average per visit than in prior months.
``We continue to see a shift in the overall mix toward fuel, food and consumables, as our members manage through the current environment,'' Doug McMillon, Sam's Club president and chief executive officer, said in a statement on July 10.
Bloomberg Survey
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PPI Core Retail Retail
PPI Sales ex-autos
MOM% MOM% MOM% MOM%
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Date of Release 07/15 07/15 07/15 07/15
Observation Period June June June June
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Median 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0%
Average 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0%
High Forecast 2.9% 0.5% 1.5% 1.8%
Low Forecast 0.5% 0.1% -0.4% 0.4%
Number of Participants 77 74 81 75
Previous 1.4% 0.2% 1.0% 1.2%
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4CAST Ltd. 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1.6%
Action Economics 1.5% 0.2% 1.0% 1.5%
AIG Investments 1.5% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5%
Aletti Gestielle SGR 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
Allianz Dresdner Economic --- --- 0.5% ---
Argus Research Corp. 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% 0.6%
Banc of America Securitie 0.9% 0.2% 0.6% 0.8%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.8%
Bantleon Bank AG 1.5% --- 0.4% 0.9%
Barclays Capital 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.3%
BBVA 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
BMO Capital Markets 1.4% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1%
BNP Paribas 1.5% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0%
Briefing.com 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 1.0%
Calyon 1.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
CFC Group --- --- 0.3% 0.8%
CIBC World Markets 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1%
Citi 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2%
ClearView Economics 0.8% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9%
Commerzbank AG 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 1.2%
Credit Suisse 1.1% 0.2% 0.5% 1.2%
Daiwa Securities America 0.8% 0.2% 0.6% 0.7%
Danske Bank 1.1% 0.2% 0.4% 1.1%
DekaBank 1.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
Desjardins Group 1.0% 0.2% 0.7% 1.2%
Deutsche Bank Securities 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
Deutsche Postbank AG 1.0% 0.3% 0.3% 0.9%
Dresdner Kleinwort 1.3% 0.2% 0.3% 1.0%
DZ Bank 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.7%
First Trust Advisors 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
Fortis 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% ---
FTN Financial 1.0% 0.2% 0.9% 1.5%
GCI Capital 1.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9%
Global Insight Inc. 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 1.5%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.6%
H&R Block Financial Advis 1.2% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8%
Helaba 1.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7%
High Frequency Economics 1.4% 0.3% 0.5% 1.5%
Horizon Investments 1.1% 0.3% 0.8% 1.3%
HSBC Markets 1.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.9%
IDEAglobal 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 1.0%
Informa Global Markets 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5%
ING Financial Markets 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 1.2%
Insight Economics 1.4% 0.2% 0.4% 1.0%
Intesa-SanPaulo 1.5% 0.3% 1.0% 0.4%
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9%
Janney Montgomery Scott L 2.1% 0.4% 0.7% 1.3%
JPMorgan Private Client 1.4% 0.3% 0.6% 1.0%
Landesbank Berlin 1.2% 0.3% -0.1% 0.5%
Lehman Brothers 1.3% 0.3% 0.6% 1.1%
Lloyds TSB 1.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.4%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc 1.4% 0.3% 0.3% 1.1%
Merk Investments 1.5% 0.4% 0.7% 1.0%
Merrill Lynch 2.9% 0.3% 1.1% 1.6%
Moody's Economy.com 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.8%
Morgan Stanley & Co. 1.6% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9%
National Bank Financial 1.3% 0.3% 1.0% 1.2%
National City Corporation 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8%
Natixis 1.6% 0.3% 0.7% 1.0%
Newedge 1.4% 0.3% 0.8% 1.0%
Nomura Securities Intl. 0.8% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7%
Nord/LB 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.6%
Okasan Securities --- --- 0.4% ---
PNC Bank 1.5% 0.3% 0.5% 0.9%
RBS Greenwich Capital 1.3% --- 0.3% ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2%
Schneider Trading Associa 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.6%
Scotia Capital 1.6% 0.4% 0.9% 1.5%
Societe Generale 1.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
Standard Chartered 1.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.9%
Stone & McCarthy Research 0.6% 0.3% 1.5% 1.8%
TD Securities --- --- 0.2% 0.8%
Thomson Financial/IFR 1.6% 0.2% 0.6% 1.1%
UBS Securities LLC 1.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.9%
Unicredit MIB 1.0% 0.2% 0.5% ---
University of Maryland 1.0% 0.2% -0.4% 0.4%
Wachovia Corp. 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.1%
Wells Fargo & Co. 1.3% --- 1.0% ---
WestLB AG 1.0% 0.2% 0.6% 1.0%
Westpac Banking Co. 1.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.6%
Wrightson Associates 1.6% 0.3% 0.3% 1.2%
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To contact the reporter on this story: Shobhana Chandra in Washington schandra1@bloomberg.net
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