Soybeans Rise to Record as Floods Cut U.S. Acreage, Hurt Yields

By Jeff Wilson

July 1 (Bloomberg) -- Soybeans rose above $16 a bushel for the first time ever on speculation that the worst Midwest flooding in 15 years will limit gains in U.S. production and inventories.

U.S. farmers may harvest 96.8 percent of the acres planted, down from an earlier forecast of 98.1 percent, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said yesterday in a report. The flood-damaged fields may curb the production increases the government predicted after farmers planted 17 percent more acres this year. Some fields may need to be replanted.

``The soybean crop is struggling,'' said Ron Mortensen, president of Advantage Ag Strategies Ltd. in Fort Dodge, Iowa. ``Bean yields may be reduced'' by late planting, he said.

Soybean futures for November delivery rose 36 cents, or 2.3 percent, to $16.10 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade, after earlier reaching a record $16.11. The price jumped 15 percent in June and 31 percent in the second quarter, the most since the three months through June 1988. Most-active futures are up 89 percent in the past year.

U.S. farmers intended to sow 74.533 million acres of soybeans, and about 95 percent of the crop was planted on June 29, leaving 3.7 million acres yet to plant, USDA data show. The USDA said yesterday harvested acreage would have been 1.3 million acres larger without the flooding.

An estimated 90 percent of the crop had emerged from the ground on June 29, compared with 82 percent a week earlier and the previous five-year average of 96 percent, the USDA said. About 58 percent of the soybeans were in good or excellent condition as of June 29, compared with 57 percent a week earlier and 68 percent a year earlier, the USDA said.

Condition Declines

Eight of the top 18 producing states showed declines in conditions last week, with three unchanged, the USDA said. Soybeans rated poor or very poor rose to 11 percent of the crop, up from 10 percent a week earlier. Overall conditions are the worst since 2002.

``The progress data remain consistent with below-average yield potential,'' Bill Nelson, a vice president for Wachovia Securities LLC in St. Louis, said today in a note to clients. ``USDA data imply soybean production potential of 3 billion bushels or less, and that is less than USDA forecast demand of over 3.06 billion.''

The price also rose on speculation U.S. inventories before the harvest will be smaller than the 125 million bushels the USDA forecast June 10. A three-month old farmers' strike in Argentina boosted demand for U.S. supplies, analysts said.

Soybean Inventories

U.S. soybean inventories as of June 1 were estimated at 676 million bushels, down 38 percent from a year earlier and the smallest in four years, the USDA said yesterday. Farmer- owned soybean inventories on June 1 totaled 227 million bushels, down 55 percent, while reserves held by processors and exporters slid 24 percent to 449 million, government data show.

U.S. inventories before the harvest are forecast to fall to 125 million bushels, or 15 days of expected consumption, the USDA said earlier this month. Soybean reserves before last year's harvest represented 68 days of consumption.

There were no deliveries against expiring July soybean futures for the second straight day, an indication of tightening U.S. inventories, said Greg Wagner, a senior commodity analyst for AgResource Co. in Chicago.

``Increased exports and crushing could drop supplies to 90 million bushels'' before U.S. farmers start harvesting, said Wagner, who called the soybean supply ``intolerably tight.''

Soybeans are the second-biggest U.S. crop, valued at $26.8 billion last year, government figures show. Corn is the biggest, with a value of $52.1 billion in 2007.

To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: July 1, 2008 17:27 EDT