Australia's Dollar May Decline to 90 U.S. Cents, Shinko Says

By Stanley White

Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The Australian dollar may fall to a four-month low of 90 U.S. cents in the next two weeks if it breaks below 92 U.S. cents, said Kengo Suzuki, a currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo.

The level of 92 U.S. cents represents so-called first support as it is near the currency's average price for the past 200 days, Suzuki said. The Aussie, as the currency is known, is likely to extend its 5.9 percent decline from a 25-year high of 98.49 U.S. cents on July 16 as it has failed to hold support at both its 30- and 100-day moving averages, he said. Second support is at 90 cents, near a low set on March 24, he said.

``The 200-day moving average is the only leg left for the Aussie to stand on,'' Suzuki said. ``Once that's taken out, it's only natural for the currency to go lower.''

The Australian dollar traded at 92.72 U.S. cents as of 11:50 a.m. in Tokyo, down from 93.37 cents late yesterday in Asia. The currency is heading for a sixth day of declines, its longest losing streak since the period ending Jan. 31, 2007.

Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered. In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net.