Obama's Overseas Spectacle Masks Policy Gaps on Iraq, China

By Janine Zacharia
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Aug. 5 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama won applause and praise from leaders in Europe and the Middle East, even from skeptical Israelis, last month during his eight-day trip abroad.

There were sweeping visuals such as the crowd of 200,000 for his Berlin speech, and plaudits from French President Nicolas Sarkozy and Afghan President Hamid Karzai. Obama even won a surprise endorsement of his Iraq troop-withdrawal plan from Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki.

With all the acclaim, questions remain on the specifics of what Obama's policy toward Afghanistan, Iraq and a range of other foreign policy issues, including China, would look like.

``I think it's more what he hasn't said than what he has said,'' said Tad Oelstrom, director of the National Security Program at the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University in Cambridge, Massachusetts. On Iraq, Oelstrom said Obama appears reluctant to outline how many troops will be ``left or what those folks are supposed to do.''

Questions about the future international policy of Obama's Republican rival, John McCain, linger, too. McCain, 71, now says, like Obama, that more troops should be sent to fight in Afghanistan against a rising insurgency.

On China, McCain struck out harshly on July 18, saying the next toy with arsenic in it that arrives from the country will be the last. Ten days later, McCain, a senator from Arizona, said he wants ``good relations with China,'' which he called an ``emerging superpower.'' He encouraged President George W. Bush to avoid confronting his hosts while attending the Beijing Olympics, which opens this week.

Extensive Discussion

Democrats say that for whatever ellipses there may be in the candidates' foreign policies, the 2008 campaign has dealt with international issues extensively.

Usually ``each candidate gives their obligatory two speeches on foreign policy; in this campaign, I've lost count,'' said Derek Chollet, a foreign policy adviser to John Edwards in the 2004 campaign, and now a senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security in Washington.

Even with that focus, gaps remain in some areas of Obama's foreign-policy map, analysts say.

Obama, while proposing more U.S. soldiers for Afghanistan, hasn't outlined a long-term vision for restoring stability.

``I don't think Obama has got a chapter, if you would, in his book that addresses what needs to be done in Afghanistan,'' Oelstrom said, noting that the Bush administration itself appears adrift there.

China, Latin America

Asia and Latin America have gotten little campaign attention beyond an Obama speech on Latin America, an April forum on China in Pittsburgh and a plan posted on his Web site to engage China and ``draw it further into the international system.''

``None of the Asian issues are getting any traction,'' said Dennis Halpin, a staffer for the Republicans on the House Foreign Affairs Committee who specializes in East Asian affairs. ``To the extent people are paying attention, it's the Middle East and oil prices.''

Obama said in Israel he wouldn't push the U.S. ally into risky concessions in peace talks. He didn't describe how as president he would attempt to build a peaceful Palestinian state, especially if Bush manages to craft a general agreement between the sides before leaving office.

On issues ranging from Iraq and Afghanistan to the spread of nuclear weapons, Obama has offered ``substantial detail'' on his positions in speeches, interviews and policy papers, said his senior foreign policy adviser, Susan Rice, in an interview. He has talked in more depth than any candidate in either party, she said.

``The trip was not designed to be his only opportunity to discuss national security,'' Rice said.

Iraq Policy

The scope of Senator Obama's Iraq policy is still emerging. While the 47-year-old Illinois Democrat said he would balance the needs of the U.S. and global security when he implements combat troop withdrawals, it isn't clear if he will stick to his 16- month pullout plan or would slide into a more conditions-based approach advocated by McCain.

Obama needs to adapt his policies to ``the conditions of 2009,'' said Philip Zelikow, a former adviser to Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and now a professor at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

``He has a policy toward the future that is designed to undo mistakes of the past: because we shouldn't have gone into Iraq, we shouldn't be there now; because we didn't do enough for Afghanistan then, we should do more now,'' Zelikow said.

Gilani Meeting

After Obama returned from his tour of Afghanistan, Iraq, Israel, and Europe, he met July 29 with Pakistani Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani in Washington and discussed ``how to more effectively deal with the front in the war on terrorism -- the threat from al-Qaeda and the Taliban originating from the Pakistan tribal areas,'' according to a statement he issued.

Obama didn't mention his previous pledge to strike unilaterally against al-Qaeda in Pakistan if the U.S. has actionable intelligence, a line that upset people in Pakistan, said Daniel Markey, a Pakistan expert at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

While Obama backed legislation which authorizes tripling civilian assistance to Pakistan, Obama still must explain ``how he'll do it,'' Markey said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Janine Zacharia in Washington at jzacharia@bloomberg.net.