European Workers Per Retiree Projected to Drop by Half by 2060

By Fergal O'Brien

Aug. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The number of working Europeans per retiree will drop by half over the next 50 years, according to European Union projections, putting additional pressure on governments' public finances as pension spending increases.

The number of people of working age for every person aged 65 or more will fall to two by 2060, compared with four today, the EU statistics office in Luxembourg said in population projections published today. The population of the 27-member EU may rise to 521 million in 2035 from 495 million now before declining to 506 million by 2060, today's report shows.


Aging populations will increase fiscal pressure on Europe's governments as lower birth rates mean a smaller number of people supporting a growing proportion of retired people. The share of the overall population aged 65 years and over will almost double to 30 percent by 2060 due in part to ``persistently low fertility,'' according to the report.

``This is one of the major challenges that Europe must face, together with climate change and globalization,'' Amelia Torres, spokeswoman for EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia, told journalists in Brussels today. The EU will use the population projections to study ``the burden which the aging process has on the economy and the budget.''

Starting in 2015, annual deaths will outnumber births, while from 2035, positive net migration will no longer be strong enough to ``counterbalance the negative natural change, and the population is projected to begin to fall,'' the statistics office said.

U.K., France

The report also projects that the U.K. and France will overtake Germany as Europe's largest countries by population. The number of people living in the U.K. will jump 25 percent to 76.7 million by 2060, while the French population is projected to rise 16 percent to 71.8 million. Over the same period, Germany's population will drop 14 percent to 70.8 million.

Cyprus and Ireland will probably record the biggest population increases over the next 50 years, of 66 percent and 53 percent, respectively, according to the report. Bulgaria and Latvia are projected to record declines of more than 25 percent over the period.

To contact the reporter on this story: Fergal O'Brien in Dublin at fobrien@bloomberg.net.