Gustav Soaks Haiti, Forecast to Be Hurricane in Gulf

By Brian K. Sullivan and Alex Morales

Aug. 27 (Bloomberg) -- Tropical Storm Gustav brought heavy rains to Haiti today and menaced Cuba, Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Crude oil rose as the storm was forecast to regain hurricane strength on a track toward the Gulf of Mexico's oil- producing region.

Gustav, packing sustained winds of almost 60 miles (95 kilometers) per hour, was about 90 miles west of the Haitian capital, Port-au-Prince, and 120 miles southeast of Guantanamo, Cuba, just before 8 a.m. Miami time, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said in an advisory.

``Though Gustav has temporarily weakened overnight due to its interaction with Haiti, this storm remains likely to explode into a major hurricane over the northwestern Caribbean'' on Aug. 29, said Jim Rouiller, a senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc., a forecaster based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

The storm weakened from a hurricane overnight as it crossed southwestern Haiti. As much as 25 inches (64 centimeters) of rain may fall in parts of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba, Jamaica and the Caymans, the center said.

``They're getting tremendous rains in Haiti and there will be mudslides and flash flooding,'' said AccuWeather Inc. meteorologist Paul Walker. ``It's going to continue moving to the northwest, and I'd imagine they're going to have to shut down the oil rigs and refineries.''

Deaths From Landslides

A landslide killed five people in Haiti, according to Agence France-Presse. In the Dominican Republic, eight members of one family died because of a landslide, the Associated Press reported.

The storm is forecast to pass over the Caribbean between Cuba and Jamaica, before entering the Gulf on Aug. 30. Gustav may gain ``major'' hurricane status, reaching at least Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, the center said.

The hurricane center's current five-day forecast track shows Gustav crossing western Cuba before heading toward Louisiana.

``The upper Texas coastline to Louisiana remain most at risk,'' Rouiller said. ``The entirety of the Gulf energy production region remains under the gun and I expect somewhere near 85 percent of the Gulf energy infrastructure will be shut- in,'' meaning sealed off.

Memories of 2005

In August and September 2005, U.S. crude oil and fuel production plunged and prices rose to records when hurricanes Katrina and Rita shut refineries and platforms as they struck the Gulf coast. Katrina closed 95 percent of offshore output in the region. Almost 19 percent of U.S. refining capacity was idled because of damage and blackouts caused by the hurricanes.

The hurricane center's track for Gustav takes it toward waters south of Louisiana, where U.S. oil and gas platforms and pipelines are most concentrated. Offshore fields in the Gulf accounted for 26 percent of total U.S. crude production and 12 percent of natural gas output in April, according to the U.S. Energy Department.

Louisiana has 19 oil refineries, which together process almost 3 million barrels a day. Those closest to the coast include ConocoPhillips' Belle Chasse refinery, Petroleos de Venezuela SA's Chalmette plant and several refineries clustered near Lake Charles.

Oil Climbs

Crude oil for October delivery rose $2.48, or 2.1 percent, to $118.75 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up about 60 percent from a year ago.

Tropical-storm warnings were in place across southern Haiti and in Jamaica. The Cuban provinces of Guantanamo, Santiago de Cuba and Granma were under a hurricane warning, and hurricane watches were in force in other parts of Cuba and in the Cayman Islands.

``After it moves away from Haiti and the higher mountains, it could become a hurricane again, maybe tomorrow,'' Eric Blake, a meteorologist at the center, said today in a phone interview. ``The conditions are there for the storm to be a major hurricane in the northwest Caribbean. Right now we're forecasting Category 3, and one category higher or lower is not out of the question.''

Category 3 storms have sustained winds of at least 111 mph, and Category 4 hurricanes blow at a minimum of 131 mph.

The system is moving northwest at 5 mph, and a turn to the west-northwest is expected today, the center said.

In Jamaica, the government began to prepare 140 shelters as Gustav advanced, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management said in an e-mailed statement.

Cuban authorities inspected dams and reservoirs to assess whether they can cope with the expected rainfall brought on by the storm, the official Cuban News Agency said. In Granma province, the Provincial Defense Council ordered the evacuation of people from low-lying areas, and supplies of rice, cement and fertilizer were moved out of the reach of potential floodwaters, the agency reported.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net; Alex Morales in London at amorales2@bloomberg.net.