Turkish Consumer Confidence Probably Rose in July: Week Ahead

By Steve Bryant

Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Turkish consumer confidence probably rose in July for the first month in seven as the ruling party escaped being outlawed by the Constitutional Court, according to an economist at Fortis Bank AS.

``Everything's pointing to a likely recovery in July,'' said Haluk Burumcekci, chief economist at the Turkish unit of the Belgian financial-services firm.

The index of consumer confidence has set record lows every month since February and fell to 75.01 in June. The statistics office will announce the figure for July on Aug. 18 at 10 a.m. in Ankara.

The main ISE National 100 stock index leaped 18 percent from July 1 to July 29 as optimism mounted that the court would stop short of outlawing a ruling party that has overseen six years of economic growth. The final decision came on July 30, with the court limiting itself to warning the Justice and Development Party not to undermine the country's secular constitution

``We'd already reached very low levels and in July confidence grew that the government wouldn't be outlawed,'' Burumcekci said.

A separate CNBC-E index of consumer confidence rose to 67.7 in July from 64.4 the previous month, according to the channel's web site.

The benchmark stock index rose 3 percent last week to 42,194.42. The lira strengthened 0.2 percent to 1.1863. The yield on the benchmark lira bond tracked by ABN Amro fell to 18.38 percent from 18.92 percent.

The following is a list of important events in Turkey next week:

Event Date
July consumer confidence Aug. 18
Turk Telekom reports 2Q net income Aug. 22

To contact the reporter on this story: Steve Bryant in Ankara at sbryant5@bloomberg.net