The Daily Forecaster: GBPUSD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Sep 16 08 05:48 GMT |

Price: 1.7963 Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks Daily Bullish While gains were seen as expected these stalled at 1.8125 and caused a much deeper pullback than expected. I suspect we may be seeing a sideways consolidation and thus take care. Any bullish stance is going to require a move above 1.8005 and more importantly 1.8040-51. I suspect this will cap if seen. Only breach would threaten follow-through above 1.8075 to 1.8125 again and if yesterday's high is broken there is a stronger chance of direct gains. On the way take care at 1.8202-10 and 1.8263. Medium Term Bullish 16th September: The sharper than expected pullback from 1.8125 doesn't alter the bullish stance but may slow it down temporarily. However, while 1.7704-64 supports the risk still remains higher to above 1.8125 to 1.8445 at least and possibly higher. Daily Bearish The decline from 1.8125 has brought with it the risk of a short term sideways consolidation. There is resistance at 1.8040-51 and while this area caps we could see the downside come under pressure. If the 1.7888 low seen already this morning breaks directly then look for followthrough to 1.7854 minimum and if this break then 1.7828. Again, a break of this lower support will imply a move back to yesterday's low at 1.7764 and then 1.7671-1.7704. 26th August: Yesterday's recovery was not too convincing and with a bearish divergence in the daily chart I want to remain aware of the downside potential. A break below 108.50 & 108.12 will imply losses to 107.20 and more likely all the way down to 106.18-39. Med term 15th September: The 1.7444 low appears confirmed and thus I can't really make too much of the downside and I feel we need wait a little longer to assess where the upside will likely stall - but for a correction only. Resistance 1.8263 1.8173-02 1.8125 1.8035-51 1.8005 1.7970 Support 1.7888 1.7854 1.7828 1.7764 1.7704 1.7671 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish trend RSI Overbought Long Term Cycles and Momentum Monthy cycles still point to losses into mid- 2009 but with price reaching key support areas - and assuming these hold - we may be able to interpret the cycles as being within a larger weekly triangle into mid next year. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Rising Bullish divergence Weekly Lower Oversold Monthly Lower Oversold ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 16th September: The sharp losses from 1.8125 suggest an alternative 5-wave rally from 1.7444 and thus I have labeled the peak as Wave (a). The decline from there is difficult to assess and thus we should be aware of several possibilities. A directly bullish scenario would call the 1.7764 low as Wave (b) and therefore imply a move to the wave equality target at 1.8445 at least. However, I am not convinced this is likely. It could be that we are seeing a complex correction - or perhaps the downside is not complete. If ther is to be a new low then a break below this morning's low at 1.7888 woudl cause follow through to the 76.4% retracement at 1.7828 at least. Below there is likely to force a new low with the 61.8% retracement in Wave (b) at 1.7704 and the 66.7% retracement at 1.7671. To cover a more complex Wave (b) we may be seeing a flat or expanded flat (the latter implying a 38.2% expansion at 1.8210) both of which would then see a decline back to 1.7764. The only other alternative is a triangle which would imply a cap around 1.8040-51 (max 1.8075) and then a move back lower towards 1.7800-25 approx. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.