Commentary by Albert R. Hunt
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- In my 40 years of covering American politics, I've never seen anything like the past week and a half.
An African-American, against all odds, wins his party's nomination, then gives an acceptance speech as part of an eight-hour celebration and voter-registration rally before 80,000 people. A hurricane threatens to force the cancellation of the other party's convention, which then comes alive when a moose-hunting, creationist-embracing, basketball-playing former beauty queen is picked to run for vice president.
Anyone who predicts with any certainty what will happen in the next eight weeks ought to explain how well they forecast what would happen in the past eight days.
The conventional wisdom is that the presidential race will be shaped by the debates, especially the initial Sept. 26 encounter and the vice presidential face-off on Oct. 2.
Some presidential contests have been strongly affected by debates: Ronald Reagan's victory in 1980 -- when he memorably asked, ``Are you better off than you were four years ago?'' -- and Vice President Al Gore's surprisingly poor performance in 2000 against a less-articulate George W. Bush.
Since 1976, however, most presidential outcomes haven't been decided by the debates.
And the only memorable vice presidential encounter was in 1988, when the late Lloyd Bentsen humiliated Republican Dan Quayle. A month later, the Democratic ticket was clobbered anyway in the election.
Controlling the Conversation
There are several other elements that may prove more decisive in the next two months.
One is the conversation and who controls it. Although the news-cycle-to-news-cycle battle is erratic, a campaign narrative usually emerges after a few weeks. In 1992, Bill Clinton capitalized on the sense that America was neglecting its domestic needs -- ``It's the economy, stupid'' -- and in the last election, an unpopular president prevailed as the challenger, John Kerry, was depicted as a waffler.
There is the simple change (Barack Obama) versus experience (John McCain) match-up this time, although both sides made progress at their conventions in closing the gap on their weaknesses. Actually, these somewhat vague terms connect more to national security versus economic security.
``If in October we're talking about Russia and national defense and who can manage America in a difficult world, John McCain will be president,'' predicts Thomas Rath, the leading Republican strategist in the swing state of New Hampshire. ``If we're talking largely about domestic issues and health care, Barack Obama probably will be president.''
Unforeseen Events
Events can affect that conversation. If Russia invades another country on Oct. 20 or Iran detonates a nuclear weapon, advantage McCain; if there's another Bear Stearns meltdown, or a stock market crash, put a few points on the Obama side.
Where they're going and where they're spending will also prove decisive. Both these campaigns are rich with resources and technology and can calibrate the voters and states they need to target. The last four presidential elections suggest that each political party has a base of a little over 200 electoral votes with a half-dozen to a dozen swing states.
It's no secret that Obama and McCain, and Joe Biden and Sarah Palin, will see a lot of autumn days in Ohio. If, however, the candidates are spending a disproportionate amount of time in Democratic, or blue, states, like Pennsylvania and Michigan, it's bad news for the Obama-Biden ticket.
Conversely, if McCain is struggling to hold Virginia or Florida, he's in trouble.
Check the Ratings
Television buys, and who has the comparative advantage, might be crucial. There will be thousands of weekly ratings points (reflecting viewers) bought in Pittsburgh, Denver and Columbus, Ohio. Check who's spending more in Albuquerque, New Mexico, or Charlotte, North Carolina.
Look for the enthusiasm quotient. Prior to the Republican convention, every index of intensity favored Obama -- party registration, primary turnout, crowds, volunteers.
Republicans believe the choice of Palin as McCain's running mate goes a long way toward closing that gap. Her appeal to independents or Hillary Clinton voters is dubious. What she really does is gin up the party's conservative base that supplies the foot soldiers to rally people in November.
In late October, see how many campaign offices and volunteers there are in Loudoun County, Virginia, or Appleton, Wisconsin. If there is still a bigger and more enthusiastic Obama presence, it will add a percentage point or two to his vote.
Follow the Money
``If you look at where the money is being spent and what's going on on the ground, you'll have a pretty good idea of who's going to win this election,'' says Tad Devine, a top strategist for the Gore and Kerry Campaigns.
The other indicator, which may not be clear until after the election, is race. How many Americans, in the privacy of their voting decision, won't vote for a black man? Fewer probably than a decade ago, but certainly some.
In 2004, voter turnout rose to 120 million from 105 million four years before. Many of these new voters were evangelicals and small-town Republicans, who were turned out by a crack Bush organization.
Sobering Reminder
For McCain, the electorate has to concur with his campaign chief, Rick Davis, that the strikingly unpopular Bush became a forgotten figure at the Republican convention. If most voters think McCain, on the big issues of the economy and Iraq, would be the equivalent of a third Bush term, he won't win.
This time, it's the Democrats who expect a big turnout. If so, it's more likely to be younger voters, Hispanics and African-Americans, most of whom will support the party.
One final sobering reminder for the ebullient Republicans who just left St. Paul, Minnesota: At this exact time in 1984, Democrats left their convention in San Francisco convinced that a little-known woman vice presidential candidate had energized their party and created a competitive election. It didn't last.
(Albert R. Hunt is the executive editor for Washington at Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: Albert R. Hunt in Washington at ahunt1@bloomberg.net
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