Dollar May Fall to 98 Yen in Coming Weeks, Forecast's Ng Says

By Stanley White

Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may decline to 98 yen in the next few weeks, said Pak Lai Ng, a technical analyst at Forecast Pte Ltd. in Singapore.

Support at 98 yen is near the dollar's Oct. 10 low. The greenback is likely to extend this month's 6 percent decline as the daily and weekly moving average convergence/divergence charts show the currency still has more scope to weaken, according to Ng. Support is a level where buy orders may be clustered.

``The dollar's bias is to go lower,'' Ng said. ``There's really nothing to indicate that we've hit a bottom. It would take a rise to resistance at 101.50 yen before we even have a chance of breaking this bearish structure.''

The dollar declined to 99.86 yen at 12:11 p.m. in Tokyo from 100.67 late in New York on Oct. 10. Resistance at 101.50 yen is the dollar's high on Oct. 9, Ng said.

MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on 9-, 12- and 26-day periods.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast price changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stanley White in Tokyo at swhite28@bloomberg.net