Crude Oil Falls as IEA May Cut Demand Forecast a Third Month

By Christian Schmollinger

Nov. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell in New York, erasing yesterday's gains, on concern the International Energy Agency will lower its 2009 oil-demand forecast as slowing economic growth cuts fuel consumption.

The IEA, an adviser to 28 oil-consuming nations, will reduce the estimated growth in global demand for a third month, according to four former IEA analysts. Asian stocks dropped as the earnings outlook worsened and business confidence in Australia, the world's biggest exporter of coal and iron ore, plunged last month to a record low. Crude had risen yesterday after China announced a $586 billion economic stimulus plan.

``The weakness in equity markets is adding to concerns about the international economic outlook and what that means for consumption,'' said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia Ltd. in Sydney. ``Even with the stimulus plan in China and interest rate cuts elsewhere, the markets are still worried about slower growth.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell as much as $2.12, or 3.4 percent, to $60.29 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $60.98 at 3:50 p.m. Singapore time. Oil slumped 10 percent last week as equities dropped, U.S. fuel stockpiles rose more than expected and the nation's unemployment rate climbed to a 14-year high.

Prices, which have tumbled 59 percent since reaching a record $147.27 on July 11, are down 36 percent from a year ago. Yesterday, oil rose $1.37, or 2.2 percent, to $62.41 a barrel, and also dropped to $59.10, the lowest since March 20, 2007.

Lower Estimates

``At the moment the trend of the market is the same as the other markets such as stocks and bonds,'' Tetsu Emori, a fund manager at Astmax Ltd. in Tokyo, Japan's biggest commodity fund, said in an interview on Bloomberg Television. ``People are looking for weaker demand even with the Chinese stimulus.''

The Group of 20 nations said it's prepared to act ``urgently'' and called for lower interest rates. The IEA, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the U.S. Energy Department have cut fuel-demand forecasts in the past month.

U.S. crude-oil supplies probably rose for a seventh week as imports rebounded, a Bloomberg News survey of analysts showed. Stockpiles probably increased 500,000 barrels in the week ended Nov. 7 from 311.9 million the week before, according to the median of nine analyst estimates before an Energy Department report this week.

Fuel Stockpiles

Gasoline inventories probably climbed 500,000 barrels from 196.1 million barrels the week before, according to the survey. Supplies of distillate fuel, a category that includes heating oil and diesel, rose 1.1 million barrels from 127.8 million barrels the week before, according to the survey.

The Energy Department is scheduled to release its weekly report on Nov. 13 at 11 a.m. in Washington. The report is being delayed by a day because of the Veterans Day holiday.

Commodities also fell as demand for metals used in manufacturing may drop. Gold for immediate delivery was down 8 cents at $746.12 an ounce as of 1:39 p.m. Singapore time and platinum fell $16.50, or 1.9 percent, to $840.50 an ounce. Copper for three-month delivery in London was down $25, or 0.7 percent, at $3,850 a metric ton.

Brent crude oil for December settlement declined as much as $2.45, or 4.2 percent, to $56.63 a barrel, on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange, and traded at $57.38 at 3:53 p.m. Singapore time. Prices have tumbled 38 percent in the past year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net.