The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Dec 01 08 03:36 GMT |

Price: 1.2417 Bias: While 1.2370 supports I feel the risk is still for slow gains to 1.2553 at least Daily Bullish Price saw gains as expected which stalled just below the 1.2476 peak. While the 1.2370 pivot area supports we can see this gradual rally continue. A break above this morning's high at 1.2449 should retest Friday's 1.2465 high and also push through to extend gains to 1.2499-20 and probably the 1.2553 area. Take care around here as this may cap. Only breach would extend gains to the next resistance at 1.2598 which may hold. Next resistance then lies at 1.2633-54 Medium Term Bullish 1st December: I wish to take a more cautious approach to the upside. Certainly I feel we'll see a test of the 1.2553 area at least. However, only above here would argue for stronger gains to 1.2598 and probably the 1.2633-54 area en route 1.2782. Daily Bearish Gains have been painful to watch and I am becoming less bullish. However, I do feel we should see a move to the 1.2553 area but watch this closely. Any signs of a cap would suggest that we have merely seen a correction and thus the downside will become vulnerable again. A break below 1.2370 would assist the downside while break of 1.2320 and 1.2275 would herald stronger losses back to the 1.2123 low initially. Medium Term Bearish 1st December: Take care here but while the 1.2553-98 area caps there is risk of losses developing that would quickly push the 1.2123 low. If this breaks it opens up much stronger losses. Resistance 1.2633-54 1.2598 1.2553 1.2499-20 1.2465 1.2449 Support 1.2370 1.2340 1.2320 1.2275 1.2220 1.2166-85 ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bearish consolidation RSI Overbought Long Term Cycles and Momentum Weekly cycles on the rise and the currect correction higher can be to be complete quite soon. Daily cycles are also rising but beginning to find a high and I suspect we should see a high by the last week of October. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Mixed High-neutral Weekly Higher Overbought Monthly Lower Overbought 1st December: While I cannot say the bullish wave structure has been broken the gains seen from the 1.1458 low have not really shown much power. We should watch the 50% retracement at 1.2553 and 61.8% at 1.2653.While these cap it would actually prefer a more bearish structure. Thus the next day or two are going to be crucial here. For the upside to prove itself we shall need a stronger rally very, very quickly. A break above the 50% retracement at 1.2553 will help but then we should note the 61.8% retracement at 1.2654. We should also be aware of the potential bullish projections of the 1.2123 to 1.2364 move in which a 176.4% projection lies at 1.2633 and above there and 1.2654 a 238.2% projection lies at 1.2782. If seen this will be in Wave iii higher. Any earlier failure at 1.2553 (and max 1.2654) would suggest that we are seeing a correction in a potential Wave -b- and subsequent break below 1.2370 and 1.2275 would add weight to us seeing a Wave -c- lower and below 1.1458... Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.