Economic Calendar

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

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Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by DailyFX | Dec 23 08 10:15 GMT |

U.K. Faced the Worst Recession Since 1990 as Final GDP Revised Down

Final U.K. Q3 GDP was unexpectedly revised down to -0.6% q/q from -0.5% in the earlier release, while the annual rate remained up 0.3%. The downward growth revision further highlights the very dire state of the U.K. economy, even before the full impact of the recent credit crunch intensification has been felt, increasing the risk for a deep recession. The breakdown showed household consumption unrevised at -0.2% q/q, the largest quarterly fall since Q1 1995 and likely to deteriorate further over the coming quarters. Investment contracted by 2.8% q/q (revised from -2.4%) while public spending rose by 0.6% q/q (revised down from 1.0% previously). Exports were revised up, however, to show a 0.3% q/q increase (versus a 0.3% drop previously) but imports were also revised higher, to 1.0% q/q (from 0.1%), with net exports remaining a drag on overall growth. Hence, the re-balancing of the U.K. economy appears to be slow. U.K.'s large service sector recorded an output drop of -0.5% (revised from -0.4%), the largest quarterly fall since Q3 1990, with the distribution, hotels and catering sector recording output down 2.1% q/q (revised from -1.9%), the worst reading since Q3 1980. Meanwhile, the industrial sector showed negative growth of 1.4% q/q (revised from -1.1%). Overall, very weak data, paving the way for even larger growth contractions in Q4.

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