The Daily Forecaster: USDCAD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Jan 29 09 03:44 GMT |

Price: 1.2176 Bias: The 1.2215 area needs to cap to retain a directly bearish stance Daily Bullish The underlying bearish trend resumed yesterday to reach 1.2024. We're closer to a low now and should therefore be aware that a reversal higher will be due any time soon. However, I still feel we will have a to wait for a touch longer before this occurs. Any sooner would require a break above 1.2210. If seen the risk will turn immediately higher though I note that the hourly chart is not boasting a bullish divergence. Next resistance is at 1.2275and the 1.2331-46 which should hold. Medium Term Bullish 28th January: The pullback has been very shallow and we need take care with the upside. Above 1.2331 would suggest 1.2394 and a small risk of 1.2445 & 1.2489-10. Only above would suggest a larger reversal higher. Daily Bearish The 1.2331 high held and the break below 1.2224 and 1.2184 took price down into the 1.2066-94 support area which has caused a pullback. It maybe that we'll see a consolidation before the final move lower and any pullback should ideally remain below 1.2210 and no higher than 1.2230-40. To see the anticipated final move lower a break below 1.2089 will assist and cause follow-through below 1.2024 to reach to the ideal 1.1900-31 targeted support. Medium Term Bearish 28th January: The target remains at 1.1900-50 (ideally 1.1931) and this will still be the target while 1.2394 and 1.2510 caps. Resistance 1.2481 1.2390 1.2346 1.2275 1.2230-40 1.2210 Support 1.2140 1.2089 1.2060 1.2024 1.1972 1.1902-31 ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bearish trend RSI Bullish divergence? Long Term Cycles and Momentum Weekly cycles on the rise and the currect correction higher can be to be complete quite soon. Daily cycles are also rising but beginning to find a high and I suspect we should see a high by the last week of October. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Mixed High-neutral Weekly Higher High-neutral Monthly Lower Overbought 27th January: The decline in what I feel is Wave ^c is progressing well. The eventual target remains around the 66.7% projection at 1.1931. As we get closer we may need to allow for a little more two-way movement but even if we see a second Wave x this should ideally remain below 1.2386-1.2418. 28th January: The warning of a pullback was timely and we did see a 3-wave move to the 1.2331 high which represented a 38.2% retracement in Wave x. We still have to be cautious in case a 50% retracement develops to 1.2394. A move below 1.2224 and 1.2180 may suggest that we are seeing a direct resumption of the downside with break below 1.2139 providing the start of a losses to the 1.1931 target area. 29th January: The second Wave x held at 1.2331 and we have seen Wave a down to 1.2024. While the pullback in Wave b remains below the 61.8%-66.7% retracement around 1.2210-30 we should then see Wave c move lower to the 1.1900-30 target. Ths only earlier risk is that Wave b develops in a complex holding pattern before the push lower. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.