Commentary by William Pesek
Jan. 19 (Bloomberg) -- North Korea has been silent of late. Officials in Pyongyang in recent weeks have resisted their oft- expressed tirades against the U.S. To many observers, that suggests the world’s most reclusive nation is awaiting new leadership in Washington. Even better, it may mean the government of Kim Jong Il wants to start afresh.
When Barack Obama is sworn in as U.S. president on Jan. 20, he will inherit what is among his predecessor’s biggest foreign- policy failures. While George W. Bush did engage North Korea in the waning months of his administration, the gesture came too late and with little hope for success.
Facts are inconvenient and the fact is North Korea isn’t going to give up its nuclear-weapons program anytime soon. A statement this week by North Korea’s Foreign Ministry reiterated that point. Its gist was that North Korea won’t scrap its nukes until the U.S. normalizes relations with officials in Pyongyang.
Bush stubbornly demanded the opposite, putting the cart before the proverbial horse. It should be no surprise that North Korea went nuclear on Bush’s watch. Call it a side effect of singling out three countries as the “Axis of Evil” and invading one. The other two raced to build nukes to avoid the same fate.
As Obama comes to office, his administration should keep three things in mind. One, North Korea won’t easily give up its deterrence against an Iraq-like invasion. Two, the Kim family dynasty isn’t about to collapse as hoped. Three, economic conditions may play to the U.S.’s advantage.
Michael Jackson
This isn’t a pro-Kim column. Kim’s reign has been a devastating failure for North Korea’s 23 million people. And history shows Kim’s pledges can’t be taken at face value.
Kim is also pretty, well, out there. In March 2003, Time magazine columnist Joe Klein coined a phase for Kim that one increasingly hears bandied about in Asia: “The Michael Jackson of world leaders.”
Yet at what point does the U.S. realize its policy on the Korean peninsula is a complete dud? Ronald Reagan, while running for president in 1980, asked Americans if they felt better off than they did four years earlier. By that measure, Bush flopped badly on North Korea over eight years.
Obama has gotten considerable grief for signaling that he would meet the leader of North Korea “without preconditions.” While that’s not going to happen, the U.S. needs to put the horse back before the cart. Only through dialogue and closer ties can the U.S. expect to disarm North Korea.
Trust, but Verify
That very idea is anathema to conservatives in Washington. And yet their hero, Reagan, talked to Soviet officials. Over time, those discussions widened and led to summit meetings and disarmament negotiations. It was always an uneasy relationship, one summed up by Reagan’s famous comment: “Trust, but verify.”
North Korea isn’t the Soviet Union, yet its experience with the U.S. demonstrates the merit of speaking with your enemies. For all the hopes that Kim’s regime would crumble, the Dear Leader is still around, failing health and all. It’s in the U.S.’s best interest to stop banking on this scenario. After all, how well did it work with Fidel Castro in Cuba?
Economic matters may offer Obama and his nominee for secretary of state, Hillary Clinton, a key opening.
North Korean media reports detail a Cabinet shakeup aimed at stabilizing a floundering economy. International aid is sure to dwindle as financial turmoil squeezes budgets and shifts priorities. Falling commodity prices also haven’t helped exports of minerals such as iron ore.
Fresh Opportunity
It’s conceivable, if not likely, that Kim’s government will see Obama as a fresh opportunity to increase U.S. aid and economic ties. The U.S. is, after all, all carrots at the moment.
Bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan, the U.S. has few sticks to complement its money. Carrots may be more important with North Korea in 2009 as the global crisis worsens.
Of course, doing that will take serious courage on Obama’s part. The outcry in Washington would be rapid and harsh. And it’s certainly possible that speaking regularly with North Korea will achieve very little.
Still, who takes the “six-party talks” seriously anymore?
The U.S., for example, is focused on forcing North Korea to disarm; Japan is preoccupied with the Japanese nationals abducted in the 1970s and 1980s; and China is obsessed with keeping a fragile economy on its border from collapsing. Good luck making any headway within that framework. It’s time for a new approach.
Imagine for a second what could be if North Korea were reined in. South Korea’s credit rating would take less of a hit from geopolitical concerns. Officials in Seoul and Tokyo would spend less time and money drawing up plans in case turmoil in North Korea led to military confrontation. North Asian nations could get along better.
North Korea appears to realize this is a unique and pivotal moment for its future. Let’s hope Obama does, too.
(William Pesek is a Bloomberg News columnist. The opinions expressed are his own.)
To contact the writer of this column: William Pesek in Tokyo at wpesek@bloomberg.net
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