Wakeup Call: UK Bank Package The News Of The Day. US Closed

Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Jan 19 09 08:02 GMT |

UK shares could see some support from the larger large package, since it adds at least £100B on top of the already planned £250B Calendar Economic Data Releases Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment EC Construction Output YoY (Nov) 10:00 - -4.0% CA Int’l Security Transactions (Nov) 13:30 1.250B 2.850B NZ Consumer Prices YoY (4Q) 21:45 3.5% 5.1% What's going on? Obama administration is to prioritize credit flow which could be catalyst for 'Obama rally'…which should be faded as synthetic rally's cannot last. UK new bail-out plan for banks….in the making (solution will be priced in before release). UK shares could see some support from this, but trading will likely be thin due to Martin Luther King day in the US (closed). Earnings releases this week includes major US corps (Johnson&Johnson, IBM, MSFT, GE, Google) and is likely to disappoint. FX FX Daily stance Comment EURUSD 0/- 1.3385 overnight high first resistance. Eventually headed lower. First support 1.3240 EURJPY - Rally was a short squeeze, looking for weakness in days ahead. Sell for 119.60 target. USDJPY 0/- Sell for 90.00 test again with stops above 91.00. Will follow equity direction GBPUSD 0 Technicals muddled. Key resistance at 1.5000, Could rally if breaks. Support 1.4780. USDCAD + Looking for renewed rally with tomorrow’s BoC on tap. Buy dips for new 1.3000 attempt. Equities Equities Daily stance Comment DAX 0 Key support at 4300. Sell the break and target 4150. Otherwise stay neutral. FTSE 0/+ Could see support from bank package. Buy and keep a stop below 4090. S&P500 0 Closed. Nasdaq100 0 Closed. Nikkei225 - Target a test of trendline support around 8058. Futures Commodities Daily Stance Comment Gold (XAUUSD) 0/+ Uncertain after Friday’s move. Buy into upside momentum. Silver (XAGUSD) 0/+ Sell ahead of trendline resistance at 11.47 and revert position if break. Oil (CLG9) - Sell at the break of 35.13 and target 33.50. Stop at 36.00 Analysis Disclosure & Disclaimer Saxo Bank A/S shall not be responsible for any loss arising from any investment based on any recommendation, forecast or other information herein contained. The contents of this publication should not be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by Saxo Bank that clients will profit from the strategies herein or that losses in connection therewith can or will be limited. Trades in accordance with the recommendations in an analysis, especially leveraged investments such as foreign exchange trading and investment in derivatives, can be very speculative and may result in losses as well as profits, in particular if the conditions mentioned in the analysis do not occur as anticipated. Saxo Bank utilizes financial information providers and information from such providers may form the basis for an analysis. Saxo Bank accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any information herein contained. Any recommendations and other comments in Saxo Bank's analysis derive from objective fundamental macro economical and company specific calculations, statistical and technical analysis, and subjective general market assessment. If an analysis contains recommendations to buy or sell a specific financial instrument, such recommendation should be seen as Saxo Bank's opinion that the specific instrument will respectively outperform the relevant market or underperform compared to the market. Saxo Bank's recommendations should statistically correspond to an even distribution between buy and sell recommendations. The recommendations may expire promptly due to market volatility and in general, Saxo Bank does not anticipate its recommendations to be valid more than one month. An analysis will be updated if and only if a market development or other issues relevant to the analysis render a new analysis on the same topic relevant. Saxo Bank's analysis does not cover any specific financial product over time but only products which Saxo Bank's strategy team finds it important to cover at any given point in time. In order to prevent conflicts of interest, Saxo Bank has established appropriate business procedures, incl. procedures applicable to research and analysis to ensure objective research reports. Saxo Bank's research reports have not been discussed with the parties, e.g. issuers of securities, mentioned in the analysis. Saxo Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. Saxo Bank does not engage in corporate finance activities and accordingly, Saxo Bank's employees, incl. the persons responsible for an analysis, do not receive remuneration associated with investment banking transactions.