Euro May Rise 26% Against Yen, Bank of Tokyo’s Hashimoto Says

By Yasuhiko Seki

Feb. 9 (Bloomberg) -- The euro may gain 26 percent against the yen this year should it rise above so-called resistance at 121.16 yen, based on trading patterns, said Masashi Hashimoto, a currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. in Tokyo.

Resistance at 121.16 yen is the 13-week moving average, a break of which would indicate the euro’s rally since Feb. 2 may accelerate toward the 52-week moving average of 147.97 yen, Hashimoto said. Resistance is where sell orders may be clustered.

“A break of the 13-week moving average may not only allow the euro to appreciate toward the upper end of the current trading range of 113 yen to 130 yen, but may also signal a further rise to 147.97 yen,” Hashimoto said.

The euro fell to 117.62 yen as of 7:10 a.m. in London from 118.85 yen late in New York on Feb. 6. The currency has climbed 3.7 percent since its Feb. 2 low of 113.15 yen.

Weekly momentum charts such as the stochastic oscillator and moving average convergence/divergence are also now showing “buy” signals, Hashimoto said.

A stochastic oscillator chart measures the closing price of a security relative to its highs and lows during a particular period to try to predict whether it will rise or fall. MACD charts can indicate whether a price shift is a change in trend or a short-term deviation by comparing moving averages based on nine-, 12- and 26-day periods.

In technical analysis, investors and analysts study charts of trading patterns and prices to forecast changes in a security, commodity, currency or index.

To contact the reporter on this story: Yasuhiko Seki in Tokyo at Yseki5@bloomberg.net