| The Euro began picking up bullish momentum in Asian session trading and would not be deterred into the European trading open, shrugging off a worse than expected print for Germany's February Current Account balance. The single currency would add as much as 1.3% against the US Dollar, putting in a high an intrasession high at 1.2741. A rebound on European stock exchanges fueled the rally: the dollar's safe-haven status amid recent turmoil has created an environment where EURUSD is now 91.4% correlated with the MSCI World Stock index. European shares gained as EADS, the parent company of Airbus, reported an 89% jump in profits while Citigroup's CEO said the bank is off to the best start to a quarter in more than a year. Technically, the Euro stands at critical level with EURUSD threatening to carve out a double bottom in the 1.2450-1.26 congestion area. Our DailyFX analysts weigh in on the single currency and offer their strategies for trading it in the coming days. Senior Currency Strategist
Jamie Saettele My picks: Long EURUSD, against 1.2550, targets 1.35 and 1.38
Expertise: Technical
Average Time Frame of Trades: My bullish bias was triggered today as the EURUSD traded above the upper diagonal line. Staying above 1.2550 keeps the trend up. There is short term support at 1.27. Those picky about entries might try and enter near there but there is also the possibility that the EURUSD surges from current levels. I say that because the EURUSD is reversing from an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are weak 5th waves that give way to sharp reversals. The diagonal began at 1.33, which is the minimum bullish objective. 1.38 is very much in the realm of possibilities since the rally from 1.2454 is a small second wave...second waves are usually deeper retracements. Currency Strategist
John Kicklighter My picks: Pending EURJPY Breakout (Long Bias)
Expertise: Combining Money Management with Fundamentals And Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 3 days - 1 week The euro has been a mixed bag among the crosses. However, the most common element to the currency's pace has been chop as speculation that the European economy would pace growth and interest rates have been unsettled by financial troubles brewing in Eastern Europe and the ECB's apparent willingness to maintain its regime of rate cuts. Looking at the euro across the spectrum, the only pair that has has bucked the trend and forced its way into a breakout was EURGBP - my setup from last week. And, unfortunately, the break was not in my favor. I had an active setup last Tuesday with a short that was in the money for until the end of last week. Not fully appreciating the lack of pace through the downswing and the rising trend, I would miss my first target by 10 points before the market reversed and stopped me out around 0.9080. This week, I will turn my focus back to the congestive euro crosses that still have pent up energy behind a possible breakout. This is similar to the situation two week's ago when we had the break through 120. We are looking for the bullish reversal from January's lows to continue its development. This will take fundamental fuel. EURJPY is one of the most liquid currency crosses to have a relatively pure correlation to risk appetite. Therefore, barring any crises in the European financial system or signs that the ECB is dramatically changing its pace of cuts, this pair will likely track the pace of sentiment. Of course, even the yen's position as a safe haven is at question nowadays. For positioning, we will wait for a technical catalyst to drive momentum and confirm the trend we are looking to follow. Following the steady advance in lows since the Jan 21st swing low, we are now finding pressure at 126.00/15. Aside from a range high, this is finds modest confirmation as a notable level through a pivot that has exacted pressure on price action since November and a 50 percent Fib retracement that is pulled from the Oct 14th to Jan 21st downdraft. The best cue for a break is a medium time frame (120 or 240-minute) close above the 126 level. A stop can be set below recent congestion (covering the Mar 3rd low if the objective is very cautiuos and the precieved potential for follow through is high). There is still an issue that a break here can once again stall around the series of spike highs around 130. This is a very obvious level of resistance and one we will have to watch with momentum in mind. The most reasonable setup would be for a first target that is set well within the 130 level and then trail stop the second half of the trade to look for the greater potential of a true trend reversal. Currency Strategist
Terri Belkas My picks: Watch for EUR/AUD Breakout
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 Day - 1 Week EUR/AUD has been consolidating within a large triangle, so I think it's worthwhile to look for a break higher or lower. Here are my parameters: Short EUR/AUD on a break under trendline support, which connects the August, January, February, and March lows, as indicated by a daily candle close below 1.9500. Potential targets include the 50% fib of 1.6214-2.1149 at 1.8671 and the 200 SMA, which is currently closing in on 1.8500. Such a move would likely come only on a pick up in risk appetite, or on fundamental news that was highly bearish for the euro or extremely bullish for the Aussie. Long EUR/AUD on a daily candle close above 2.0150, where we have falling trendline resistance. Potential targets include the 2008 spike highs near 2.1000. From a fundamental perspective, risk averse selling in the markets would likely need to occur for this to happen. As usual, stops should be place according to preferred risk/reward ratios. Currency Analyst
David Rodriguez My picks: Range trade the EUR/USD
Expertise: System Trading
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-10 weeks As I wrote last week, I continue to believe that the EUR/USD will trade within a fairly wide range through the foreseeable future. Unfortunately I called for a EUR/USD bottom at 1.2700--a full 150 points above the actual bottom. But my feelings remain unchanged on the matter. Absent a more convincing uptick in volatility expectations, I don't believe that the EUR/USD will break its fairly long-standing range. Thus a range buy at these levels seems like a reasonable risk/reward proposition, and I think there's a solid chance we return to range highs closer to 1.2950. Currency Analyst
Ilya Spivak My picks: Remain Short EURUSD
Expertise: Global Macro, Classic Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1 week - 6 months I first sold the Euro against the US dollar at 1.5510 and have been holding short since, expecting the emergence of a long-term down trend. To update yesterday's analysis, EURUSD is once again testing the upper boundary of a bearish channel that has confined prices since late January (now at 1.2750). This is the near-term line in the sand: a daily close above this level would open the door for (at least) a sizable upward correction to 1.3060-70. For the time being, however, the picture remains bearish. Currency Analyst
John Rivera My picks:Long EUR/USD
Expertise: Fundamentals Combined With Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2-4 Days Although, I had to endure a brief dip below support at 1.2500 before bullish momentum took hold, my long Euro pick is proving to be profitable. My justification for the pick was that the support level has held so firm. My call for a break above the 20-Day SMA has come to fruition and my second target of 1.3000 appears to be in sight. Therefore, I am sticking with my long position and re-committing to my 1.300 target. However, the 50-Day SMA at 1.3015 could limit any further gains and is a level that deserves watching. Currency Analyst
David Song My picks: Sell EUR/CHF Below 1.4550 - Look For Break Out
Expertise: Fundamentals and Technicals
Average Time Frame of Trades: 2 - 10 Days The EURCHF fell to a fresh low for 2009 earlier this week, and I expect the pair to hold its bearish trend over the near-term as investors continue to curb their appetite for risky assets. The euro-franc bounced back today after testing 1.4640-50 (78.6% Fib), and may continue to push higher over the week, but as short- term resistance firmly lies at 1.4900-10 (61.8%), gains to the upside are likely to be capped. As a result, I expect the pair to retrace the rally from the October low, and will hold my target at the 10/31 low of 1.4542. Currency Analyst
Joel S. Kruger My picks: Pending Sell EUR/USD @1.2920 for 1.2580 Objective, Stop @1.3020
Expertise: Technical Analysis
Average Time Frame of Trades: 1-3 Days The pair has been well capped on a close basis below the 20-Day SMA (1.2700) for the entire 2009 and until a close above can be established, intraday rallies towards and above the 20-Day should be used as opportunities to build on existing short positions. With the market already trading above the 20-Day ahead of the US session of trade, scope exists for additional upside over the coming hours. We will look to take advantage of an overdone rally today to look to get back into the overriding bear trend. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 1.2870. If trade triggers and 1.2870 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (5pm EST) on Tuesday. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Tuesday. Fundamental Catalyst - The Euro has been well correlated with US equities of late and any sense of an increased risk appetite and bid back into equities should help to bolster the major currency. However, as has been the case throughout the global financial crisis, rallies in the equity markets should only be used as opportunities to build on existing shorts, with the renewed optimism more often than not, reliably shot down quickly and abruptly. DailyFX Disclaimer Investment in the currency exchange is highly speculative and should only be done with risk capital. Prices rise and fall and past performance is no assurance of future performance. This website is an information site only. Accordingly we make no warranties or guarantees in respect of the content. The publications herein do not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Investors should obtain individual financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment decision on the basis of the recommendations in this website. While we try to ensure that all of the information provided on this website is kept up-to-date and accurate we accept no responsibility for any use made of the information provided. All intellectual property rights are the property of Daily FX. Daily FX and its affiliates, will not be held responsible for the reliability or accuracy of the information available on this site. The content herein is provided in good faith and believed to be accurate, however, there are no explicit or implicit warranties of accuracy or timeliness made by Daily FX or its affiliates. The reader agrees not to hold Daily FX or any of its affiliates liable for decisions that are based on information from this website. Daily FX highly recommends that before making a decision, the reader collects several opinions related to the decision and verifies facts from at least several independent sources. | 
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