By Keiko Ujikane
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Japan’s current-account surplus narrowed at the slowest pace in six months in March as a decline in exports eased.
The surplus shrank 48.8 percent to 1.486 trillion yen ($15.5 billion) from a year earlier, the Ministry of Finance said in Tokyo today. Exports fell 46.5 percent after declining a record 50.4 percent in February.
Economists don’t expect shipments abroad to resume rising soon given that they have plunged at an unprecedented pace since last year. The International Monetary Fund says the global recession will be deeper and the recovery slower than earlier predicted as financial markets take longer to stabilize.
“Overseas demand is bottoming out, but the strength of its recovery is weak,” said Mitsumaru Kumagai, a senior economist at Daiwa Institute of Research Ltd. in Tokyo. “Both Japan and the world economy are unlikely to achieve a full- blown recovery until the second half of next fiscal year.”
The yen traded at 96.09 per dollar at 11:31 a.m. in Tokyo from 96.17 before the report was published.
The median estimate of economists surveyed was for the current-account surplus to narrow to 1.21 trillion yen. The gap fell every month in the year ended March, except for January, when Japan had a deficit for the first time in 13 years.
The Washington-based IMF said in April that the world economy will shrink 1.3 percent this year, compared with its January projection of 0.5 percent growth. It predicted expansion of 1.9 percent next year, slower than an earlier 3 percent estimate.
Imports Fall
Imports slid 37.8 percent, compared with an unprecedented 44.9 percent drop the previous month.
Shipments to China sank 31.6 percent in March, less than the 39.7 percent decline in the previous month, according to a separate trade report released last month. Exports to the U.S. fell 51.4 percent, moderating from 58.4 percent in February. Today’s figures don’t include regional breakdowns.
“China’s economy has started rebounding, but the emerging economies on the whole aren’t strong enough to lead the world economy,” said Junko Nishioka, an economist at RBS Securities Japan Ltd. “Capital probably won’t flow back into the emerging nations unless the industrialized countries return to growth.”
Japan’s government last month cut its economic forecast, saying the world’s second-largest economy will shrink a record 3.3 percent this fiscal year as exports and corporate spending tumble at an unprecedented pace.
Income Surplus
The income surplus, the difference between money earned abroad and payments made to foreign investors in Japan, narrowed 13 percent to 1.7 trillion yen in March from a year earlier, today’s report showed.
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the current-account surplus widened 31.7 percent from February, today’s report showed. Exports rose 5.3 percent and imports gained 4.9 percent.
The surplus narrowed 50.2 percent to 12.2 trillion yen in the year ended March 31, today’s report showed, the most since comparable data were made available in 1985. Exports tumbled a record 16.3 percent and imports fell 3.9 percent.
The current account tracks the flow of goods, services and investment income between Japan and its trading partners. It includes trade not shown in the customs-cleared balance.
To contact the reporter on this story: Keiko Ujikane in Tokyo at kujikane@bloomberg.net
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment