By Courtney Schlisserman
May 13 (Bloomberg) -- Retail sales in the U.S. probably steadied in April as consumers gained confidence the economic slump may be easing, economists said before reports today.
Purchases were unchanged after dropping 1.2 percent in March, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey. Excluding automobiles, sales probably rose 0.2 percent, after a 1 percent decrease in March, the survey showed.
Lower borrowing costs, a rebound in stocks and smaller job losses last month led to the biggest jump in sentiment in three years, making it more likely spending will see sustained gains in the second half of 2009. Even so, an unemployment rate that is projected to remain elevated for years may make for a subdued economic recovery.
“We probably have seen the very worst in terms of massive declines in retail sales and we’re probably in this period of showing very little growth,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.
The Commerce Department’s report is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Sales estimates ranged from a drop of 0.8 percent to an increase of 1.1 percent.
Other reports today may show the cost of goods from abroad climbed in April for a second month as fuel prices rebounded, and companies continued to trim inventories in March, according to economists surveyed.
Auto Slump
Car dealers were among the retailers that struggled last month. Autos sales dropped to a 9.3 million annual pace from a 9.9 million rate in March.
Chrysler LLC, whose U.S. sales tumbled 48 percent in April from the same month last year as bankruptcy neared, said last week it will offer rebates of as much as $6,000 to boost demand. The incentives began May 6 and end June 1.
Even so, fewer job losses and gains in stocks are making Americans less pessimistic, helping sales at other retailers to stabilize. Consumer confidence jumped by the most since 2005 in April, according to a report last month by the Conference Board, a New York-based private research group.
Payrolls fell by 539,000 workers last month, the smallest drop since October, the Labor Department reported last week. Still, the jobless rate climbed to 8.9 percent, the highest level since 1983, and economists surveyed this month project unemployment will average 9.6 percent in 2010.
Kohl’s, Wal-Mart
Kohl’s Corp. and BJ’s Wholesale Club Inc. were among retailers last week that said first-quarter preliminary earnings exceeded their forecasts and April sales signaled shoppers are returning to stores. Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the world’s largest retailer, said sales at U.S. stores open at least a year rose 5 percent, also beating estimates.
April same-store sales rose 0.7 percent, the first gain since September, according to a report last week from the International Council of Shopping Centers, the New York-based trade group that measures sales at about 40 retail chains.
“We’re still working our way through the slowdown,” said Mike Niemira, chief economist at the ICSC. “I think it will get better as the year progresses. The month of May will still be tough and I suspect by the summer that things will be a little broader in terms of the improvement.”
Bloomberg Survey
================================================================
Import Retail Retail Business
Prices Sales ex-autos Inv.
MOM% MOM% MOM% MOM%
================================================================
Date of Release 05/13 05/13 05/13 05/13
Observation Period April April April March
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median 0.6% 0.0% 0.2% -1.1%
Average 0.6% 0.0% 0.3% -1.1%
High Forecast 2.2% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5%
Low Forecast -0.4% -0.8% -0.6% -1.8%
Number of Participants 46 67 65 44
Previous 0.5% -1.2% -1.0% -1.3%
----------------------------------------------------------------
Action Economics -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% -1.2%
AIG Investments 0.0% 0.5% 1.1% -1.7%
Aletti Gestielle SGR --- -0.1% 0.0% -1.2%
Ameriprise Financial Inc 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% -1.8%
Argus Research Corp. 0.2% -0.6% -0.2% -0.6%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 1.3% 0.3% 0.8% -0.6%
Bantleon Bank AG 0.8% 0.0% 0.2% ---
Barclays Capital 0.7% -0.1% 0.4% -1.0%
BBVA 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% -1.2%
BMO Capital Markets 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% -1.1%
BNP Paribas 0.8% -0.4% 0.1% -1.0%
Briefing.com --- -0.2% 0.0% -1.0%
Calyon --- -0.1% 0.1% -1.0%
CIBC World Markets --- -0.4% -0.2% ---
ClearView Economics --- 0.0% 0.3% -1.0%
Commerzbank AG --- 0.3% 0.2% -0.7%
Credit Suisse 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% -1.0%
Daiwa Securities America --- 0.3% 0.3% -1.0%
Danske Bank --- -0.5% -0.1% ---
DekaBank 0.8% -0.1% 0.0% -0.9%
Desjardins Group 1.0% -0.2% 0.2% -1.0%
Deutsche Postbank AG 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% ---
DZ Bank 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% ---
First Trust Advisors 1.3% 0.5% 0.8% -0.8%
Fortis --- -0.3% 0.1% ---
FTN Financial --- -0.3% 0.1% ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- 0.3% 0.5% ---
Helaba --- -0.2% 0.0% -1.2%
Herrmann Forecasting 1.1% 0.2% 0.3% -1.3%
High Frequency Economics 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% -1.3%
HSBC Markets 0.4% 0.6% 0.7% -1.1%
IDEAglobal 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% -0.9%
IHS Global Insight --- 0.3% 0.7% ---
Informa Global Markets 0.0% -0.3% 0.4% -1.5%
ING Financial Markets 1.0% -0.4% 0.2% -1.2%
Intesa-SanPaulo 0.4% 0.5% 0.1% ---
J.P. Morgan Chase 1.0% 0.2% 0.8% -1.3%
Janney Montgomery Scott L 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% -1.8%
Johnson Illington Advisor -0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5%
Landesbank Berlin 1.0% -0.2% -0.2% -1.5%
Landesbank BW 0.5% -0.5% --- ---
Lloyds TSB 0.4% -0.1% 0.0% -1.0%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- -0.1% 0.0% ---
Merrill Lynch 0.7% -0.8% -0.6% -1.3%
Mizuho Securities 0.3% -0.4% -0.1% -0.9%
Moody’s Economy.com 0.7% 0.2% 0.2% -1.3%
Morgan Keegan & Co. 0.1% 0.9% 0.7% -0.9%
Morgan Stanley & Co. --- -0.4% -0.3% ---
Natixis --- -0.1% 0.0% ---
Newedge 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% ---
Nomura Securities Intl. --- 0.1% 0.3% ---
PNC Bank --- 0.4% 0.5% -0.9%
Raymond James --- 0.0% 0.2% -1.4%
RBS Securities Inc. --- -0.1% 0.1% ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. 1.1% --- --- -1.1%
Scotia Capital 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% ---
Societe Generale --- 0.2% 0.3% ---
Stone & McCarthy Research 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% -1.2%
TD Securities --- 0.3% 0.7% ---
Thomson Reuters/IFR 0.7% 0.2% 0.4% -1.3%
UBS Securities LLC 2.2% -0.1% 0.2% -1.4%
Unicredit MIB 0.2% 0.5% --- ---
University of Maryland 0.5% -0.2% 0.1% -1.1%
Wachovia Corp. 1.5% 1.1% 1.2% -1.2%
Wells Fargo & Co. -0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ---
WestLB AG 0.4% -0.1% 0.1% ---
Westpac Banking Co. 0.7% -0.5% -0.1% -1.2%
Wrightson Associates 1.1% -0.1% -0.1% ---
================================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Courtney Schlisserman in Washington cschlisserma@bloomberg.net
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment