FX Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank | Jul 09 09 06:36 GMT |

EURUSD Comment: Holding up better than we had thought as stock markets slide, refugees from these leap into Treasuries and the Yen. The Euro is poised at the top of a large Ichimoku 'cloud' and while the risk is that we will drift into it, it is large and should provide support over the coming month and more. Strategy: Possibly attempt small longs at 1.3920; stop well below 1.3800. Short term target 1.4050 Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels: Support Resistance 1.3858 " 1.3939 1.3832/1.3825 1.4 1.3800* 1.4051* 1.3745 1.4178/1.4202* 1.3600* 1.423 GBPUSD Comment: Holding Fibonacci support ahead of an increasingly large, upward-sloping Ichimoku 'cloud'. Continue to watch and see how Cable reacts here and ahead of June's low at 1.5800, where we hope support will hold and it is just a question of whether price action is neat or full of 'spikes' and 'extensions'. Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.6120, adding to 1.6000; stop below 1.5800. First target 1.6200, then 1.6400. Direction of Trade: → Chart Levels: Support Resistance 1.6030 " 1.62 1.598 1.63 1.5925 1.6435 1.5800* 1.66 1.575 1.6745* USDJPY Comment: Typical of the Yen in that when it decides to gain against other currencies it does so with a vengeance, taking no prisoners. It hovered above 94.00 most of the day in London as large option expiries were protected, but once these died stop loss selling caused the biggest daily drop since mid-March. This morning it should try and regain some semblance of stability, probably hovering around 93.00. A weekly close below 94.00 would add considerable bearish momentum for concerted downside probes of key support throughout this month. Strategy: Attempt shorts at 93.05/93.50; stop well above 94.55. Add to shorts on a sustained break below 92.25 for 91.80 short term, then lower still. Direction of Trade: →↘ Chart Levels: Support Resistance 93.00 " 93.52 92.75 93.85/94.00 92.50/92.38 94.5 91.80* 95 91.00/90.87* 89.70 95.50* 96.25 EURJPY Comment: Slumping through trendline support and a thin Ichimoku 'cloud', bouncing ahead of 126.00 which is the middle of this year's broad trading band. We expect prices to hold above yesterday's low at 127.00 today and probably tomorrow, maybe even above 129.00 because the Lagging Span tries to hold above trendline support. Rallies are seen as selling opportunities for another move lower later this month. Strategy: Sell at 129.70 but only if prepared to add to 131.00; stop above 132.25. Short term target 128.00, then the 127.00/126.00 area. Direction of Trade: →↘ Chart Levels: Support Resistance 129.75 " 129.75 128.5 130.03 128 130.45 127.65 131.35 127.00* 132.00* Mizuho Corporate Bank Disclaimer The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.