G-7 Will Be Eclipsed by E-7 by 2020 as China Surges, PwC Says

By Simon Kennedy

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Group of Seven economies will be eclipsed in size by the world’s biggest emerging markets within two decades, led by China, according to calculations by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP.

After matching the G-7 in around 2019, the combined gross domestic product of China, India, Brazil, Russia, Mexico, Indonesia and Turkey will be around 30 percent higher by 2030 than that of the U.S., Japan, Germany, France, U.K., Italy and Canada, John Hawksworth, PwC’s London-based head of macroeconomics, said in a report today.

The study is the latest to highlight the rise of emerging economies such as China and their increasing power over the direction of the world economy after developed nations triggered the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression. As recently as 2000, the G-7’s GDP was twice as large as that of what PwC calls the Emerging Seven and this year the gap will have shrunk to 35 percent, the study said.

“The E-7’s influence is already huge and this analysis shows it’s not a matter of if the E-7 will overtake the G-7, but when,” said Hawksworth.

China is on course to overtake the U.S. as the world’s largest economy around 2020 before its ageing population slows its advance, the economist said.

The next largest economies by 2030 will be India, Brazil, Russia, Germany, Mexico, France and the U.K., the report said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in Paris at Skennedy4@bloomberg.net