Economic Calendar

Thursday, January 21, 2010

U.S. Stock Futures Retreat on Jobless Claims, China Concern

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By Nikolaj Gammeltoft

Jan. 21 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock futures fell as a gain in initial jobless claims and concern China will move to slow economic growth offset better-than-estimated results at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., EBay Inc. and Starbucks Corp.

United Technologies Corp. and Walt Disney Co. fell at least 0.6 percent to lead declines in Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. Goldman Sachs, the most profitable securities firm in Wall Street history, climbed after results were boosted by a reduction in the percentage of revenue allocated to compensation. EBay, the most-visited U.S. e-commerce site, added 8.4 percent after reporting its first profit increase in more than a year. Starbucks gained 3 percent as it raised its annual forecast following higher-than-estimated first-quarter earnings.

Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index expiring in March slipped 0.1 percent to 1,133.2 as of 8:51 a.m. in New York. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.2 percent to 10,528 and Nasdaq-100 Index futures lost less than 0.1 percent to 1,866.5.

More than 60 companies in the S&P 500 are reporting fourth- quarter results this week and analysts surveyed by Bloomberg forecast total earnings grew 67 percent, with estimates for a 30 percent increase in the first quarter of 2010. The benchmark index’s valuation climbed last week to 25 times its companies’ reported operating profits, the highest level since 2002, following a 70 percent jump since March.

‘Enduring Bull Market’

“2010 could be the year in which the market recovery of 2009 is transformed into a long and enduring bull market,” said Max King, a London-based strategist at Investec Asset Management, which oversees about $55 billion. “The consensus earnings forecast of over 30 percent growth looks not just achievable but beatable.”

China’s economy grew 10.7 percent in the fourth quarter, the fastest pace since 2007 and more than the median forecast of 10.5 percent in a Bloomberg News survey, according to the statistics bureau in Beijing, fanning speculation the central bank will curb record loan growth to prevent the economy from overheating.

A global rally in stocks may end in the second half of the year amid a muted recovery in the world’s largest economies and as deflationary pressures limit gains in corporate earnings, Nouriel Roubini, the Harvard-schooled New York University professor who in 2006 foresaw the financial crisis, said in Hong Kong today.

More Americans than anticipated filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, reflecting a backlog of applications from the year-end holidays. Initial jobless claims rose by 36,000 to 482,000 in the week ended Jan. 16, the highest level in two months, from 446,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed.

The index of U.S. leading indicators probably rose in December for a ninth month, signaling the economy will keep growing through the first half of the year, economists said before a report at 10 a.m. New York time.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nikolaj Gammeltoft in New York at ngammeltoft@bloomberg.net




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