Indian Wheat Crop May Suffer From Drought, Meteorologist Says

By Rudy Ruitenberg

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The wheat harvest in India, the world’s second-biggest grower, may suffer from drought in the country’s western cultivation regions, agricultural meteorologist Gail Martell said.

Northwest India’s vegetation index, an indication of plant growth, is lower than a year ago because of stress to crops in December and January, Martell, who heads Whitefish Bay, Wisconsin-based Martell Crop Projections, said in a report. The country had a “very poor” summer monsoon, with the lowest rainfall in 37 years, according to the report.

“The Indian government is hoping for a bountiful wheat harvest to offset a serious shortage in summer rice,” Martell said. “Dry conditions in western India are tainting the outlook, spoiling chances for a bumper wheat harvest.”

Estimates for an Indian wheat crop of 82.4 million metric tons are “overly optimistic” because of the weather stress in the western states, according to Martell. The wheat harvest will start in central India in March and move north in April, according to the report.

Sub-par wheat yields are likely in the normally productive irrigated states of Punjab and Haryana, while Madhya Pradesh has the best potential for the grain, the meteorologist said.

“Pakistan wheat potential looks terrible in the northern growing regions bordering India,” Martell said. “January was particularly dry.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Rudy Ruitenberg in Paris at rruitenberg@bloomberg.net