U.S. Economy to Strengthen, Reducing Unemployment, Survey Says

By Bob Willis and Alex Tanzi

Feb. 11 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. unemployment peaked in October and will retreat through 2011 as the economy strengthens, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

The world’s largest economy will grow 3 percent this year and next, more than anticipated a month ago, according to the median estimate of 62 economists polled this month. The jobless rate, which reached a 26-year high of 10.1 percent in October, will end the year at 9.5 percent.

Efforts to rebuild inventories, investments in new equipment and software and improving sales overseas will spur employment and household spending. Scant inflation will give Federal Reserve policy makers room to keep the target interest rate near zero through the third quarter, buying the economy enough time to reach a self-sustaining expansion.

“It’s a matter of time before strength in the economy effectively feeds on itself, with more employment leading to stronger spending, which in turn leads to more employment,” said James O’Sullivan, global chief economist at MF Global Ltd. in New York. “The key is going to be the business sector leading the way and consumer spending following.”

Consumer purchases, which account for 70 percent of the economy, will grow 2 percent this year and expand 2.5 percent in 2011. By comparison, spending rose 3.3 percent on average over the two decades through 2007.

“Consumption has been on an uptrend,” said Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc. in New York. “The main reason for the pickup in recent months has been an improvement in the labor market.”

Less Unemployment

Unemployment fell to 9.7 percent last month from 10 percent in December, according to the Labor Department. Joblessness will average 9.1 percent in 2011.

A growing economy this year may generate 1.4 million jobs, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed this month by Blue Chip Economic Indicators. The U.S. has lost 8.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, the most in the post-World War II period.

President Barack Obama last week announced he will back a temporary increase in Small Business Administration loans to $1 million from $350,000 to encourage hiring after government figures showed an unexpected loss of 20,000 jobs in January,

The administration says the $787 billion stimulus plan passed one year ago this month has funded up to 2 million jobs, yet more needs to be done.

Obama Proposals

“Far too many of our neighbors and friends and family are still out of work,” Obama said after touring a small business in the Washington suburb of Lanham, Maryland, last week.

The lack of jobs means companies will have to carry the economy in coming months by updating equipment, said David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities International Inc. in New York.

“Businesses simply haven’t invested enough in new Equipment, and I think there is pent-up demand,” said Resler.

Purchases of equipment and software increased at a 13 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the most since 2006, the government reported Jan. 29.

W.R. Grace & Co., the maker of catalysts and construction materials that is preparing to exit bankruptcy protection, is among companies planning to boost investments as global demand improves.

Sales volumes will rise 3 percent to 7 percent this year as spending on construction projects in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America rises, the Columbia, Maryland-based company said Feb. 2. It plans a 44 percent increase in capital spending to better support the projected sales gains.

Growth Accelerates

The U.S. economy grew at a 5.7 percent annual pace in last year’s fourth quarter, the best performance in six years, the government reported Jan. 29. Efforts to stabilize inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to growth.

While the amount of the contribution will slow, the need to replenish stockpiles will keep factories growing. Manufacturing expanded in January at the fastest pace since 2004 as orders and production increased, the Institute for Supply Management said this month.

Households are still trying to overcome a record loss of wealth during the recession as home values and stock prices slumped, one reason why spending will be slow to recover.

Rising stocks are helping mend tattered balance sheets. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 65 percent last year from its 12-year low reached on March 9. The rebound has stalled with the gauge falling 4.2 percent so far this year as China stepped up efforts to curb lending, the Obama administration proposed rules to rein in risk-taking at banks and concern grew over government debt levels in Greece, Spain and Portugal.

Less Inflation

Little inflation on the horizon means the Fed will hold the target rate for overnight loans between banks at its current range of zero to 0.25 percent through the first nine months of the year, according the median estimate of economists surveyed this month, the same as in the prior survey. The rate will rise to 0.75 percentage point by the end of the year.

The central bank’s preferred price gauge, which tracks consumer spending and excludes food and fuel costs, will rise 1.3 percent this year, the smallest gain since 1964, according to the survey median.

To contact the reporters on this story: Bob Willis in Washington bwillis@bloomberg.net; Alex Tanzi in Washington at atanzi@bloomberg.net