The Daily Forecaster: EURJPY

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Jul 31 08 03:04 GMT |

Price: 168.20 Bias: While the 168.60-70 resistance caps the risk of seeing losses to 167.47 and probably 167.07-25 are likely Daily Bullish We did see marginal new lows but from 167.94 a recovery. At this point it is not strong and if there is to be any further upside seen then we need a break above 168.60-70. Wait for this break and if seen look for gains to move their way up to 169.42-47. This is likely to hold for one last correction lower ahead of the stronger move to the 170.45 and 171.20 targets. Medium Term Bullish 30th July: The 170.45 and 171.20 target are still possible but yesterday's losses do seem to suggest a recycling of the downward correction to 167.07-25. From there we should see the final move higher to the 170.45-171.20 target resistances. Daily Bearish The 167.94 level supported and may mean we are seeing a sideways consolidation. To generate the preferred move to the 167.07-40 area we need breach of 167.94 which would then open the way for the downside to take hold to reach the target support before reversing higher. Medium Term Bearish 22nd July: New highs seen but within even a bullish structure we should see a correction first and this has potential to 167.60 at least and possibly even 167.05. However, only a break below 166.40 would cause a much larger decline. Resistance 171.20 170.45 169.71-95 169.47 169.00 168.60-70 Support 168.14 167.94 167.40 167.07 166.31-39 165.73 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish trend RSI Oversold Long Term Cycles and Momentum Monthly cycles appear to have found a major high at 168.93 and should set the scene for some long term losses. With the daily cycle coming to a high as weekly cycles decline there is risk of significant losses. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Finding a high? Bearish divergence Weekly Lower Neutral (declining) Monthly Lower Low-neutral ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 28th July: The favored target in Wave -v- remain at the 76.4% projection at 171.20 which is a also a 161.8% projection in Wave (c). Also note the 66.7% projection at 170.45. However, we should also note the possibility of a flat correction which should see the 169.95 area cap. If so then we may see the correction recycle to the 61.8% retracement at 167.05. Also note the 76.4% retracement at 166.38. 31st July: The move to 167.94 may well have been Wave ^c of a triangle. If so then look for a 66.7% projection in Wave ^d to around 169.40-50 from where a final decline is seen before completing a triangle Wave -b- followed by a move above the 169.95 high and probably, after a correction to 171.20. However, the alternative is a straight ABC move lower from the 168.60-70 area that should reach the 261.8% projection in minor Wave c and possibly the 61.8% retracement at 167.07 before we see the move higher develop. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.