By Timothy R. Homan and Courtney Schlisserman
July 29 (Bloomberg) -- Home prices in 20 U.S. metropolitan areas probably fell at a faster pace in May, indicating the three-year housing slump hasn't stabilized, a private survey today may show.
The S&P/Case-Shiller home-price index dropped 16 percent from May 2007, according to the median forecast of 25 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. That would be the biggest year-over- year decline since records began in 2001, and would follow a 15.3 percent April decrease. A separate report may show consumer confidence fell in July to a 16-year low.
Stricter loan rules, rising mortgage rates and an increase in foreclosures are likely to keep hurting home sales and prices in coming months. In turn, the drop in property values, along with higher fuel prices and a shrinking job market, is weighing on consumers and the economy.
``There's not a lot of good news,'' said Adam York, an economist at Wachovia Corp. in Charlotte, North Carolina. ``There's not a lot to help the consumer right now.''
The home-price index is due at 9 a.m. New York time. Projections in the Bloomberg survey ranged from declines of 14.8 percent to 17 percent.
The S&P/Case-Shiller gauge has fallen every month since January 2007. The acceleration contrasts with other private and government measures that indicate prices were declining at a slower pace.
Other Measures
The median price of existing houses fell 6.1 percent in June from the same month last year, compared with an 8.5 percent decrease registered in the 12 months ended in April, according a report from the National Association of Realtors last week.
The cost of new homes, as reported by the Commerce Department, dropped 2 percent last month from June 2007. In the year ended in March, the decrease was 13 percent, the biggest in almost four decades.
The gauges from Commerce and the Realtors group can be influenced by changes in the regional composition or types of homes sold. Sales in areas with more expensive homes relative to cheaper properties will bias the figures up.
In contrast, the S&P/Case-Shiller index, and another by the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, track the same houses over time and more accurately reflect price trends, economists said.
The Conference Board's measure of consumer confidence probably sank to 50.1 this month from 50.4 in June, economists forecast the New York-based private research group's report at 10 a.m. will show. The reading would be the lowest since February 1992.
Sales Drop
Reports last week showed home sales remained weak. Purchases of existing homes, which account for about 85 percent of the U.S. housing market, fell 2.6 percent in June to a 4.86 million annual rate, the lowest level in a decade, the National Association of Realtors said July 24.
New-home sales for June decreased 0.6 percent to a 530,000 pace, the Commerce Department said July 25. The same report showed the number of new properties on the market dropped by the most in 45 years, a sign that builders are making progress in clearing out inventories.
Residential construction companies are struggling to maintain profits. Pulte Homes Inc., the third-largest U.S. homebuilder, reported a second-quarter loss of $158.4 million last week.
``We see no immediate signs of this housing downturn relenting,'' Pulte Chief Executive Officer Richard Dugas said in a conference call with analysts.
Bloomberg Survey
============================================
Case Shil Consumer
Monthly Conf
YOY% Index
============================================
Date of Release 07/29 07/29
Observation Period May July
--------------------------------------------
Median -16.0% 50.1
Average -16.2% 50.4
High Forecast -14.8% 55.0
Low Forecast -17.0% 45.0
Number of Participants 25 72
Previous -15.3% 50.4
--------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -16.0% 53.0
Action Economics --- 52.0
AIG Investments --- 51.0
Aletti Gestielle SGR --- 49.0
Analytical Synthesis -16.2% ---
Argus Research Corp. --- 50.0
Banc of America Securitie --- 51.0
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi --- 52.0
Barclays Capital --- 49.0
BBVA --- 49.0
BMO Capital Markets -16.0% 50.3
BNP Paribas --- 48.5
Briefing.com --- 50.0
Calyon --- 49.8
CFC Group -15.5% 45.0
CIBC World Markets --- 51.0
Citi --- 52.5
Commerzbank AG --- 52.0
Credit Suisse --- 48.0
Daiwa Securities America --- 51.0
Danske Bank --- 51.4
DekaBank --- 51.0
Deutsche Bank Securities --- 49.5
Deutsche Postbank AG --- 50.0
Dresdner Kleinwort -16.0% 50.0
DZ Bank -16.0% 50.2
First Trust Advisors --- 50.1
Fortis -15.6% 51.0
FTN Financial --- 49.5
Goldman, Sachs & Co. --- 53.0
H&R Block Financial Advis --- 51.5
Helaba --- 49.5
High Frequency Economics -16.5% 55.0
Horizon Investments --- 51.0
HSBC Markets -16.0% 52.0
IDEAglobal -17.0% 50.0
Informa Global Markets --- 50.0
ING Financial Markets -16.2% 49.8
Insight Economics --- 49.0
Intesa-SanPaulo -16.0% 50.0
J.P. Morgan Chase -16.1% 51.0
Janney Montgomery Scott L -16.6% 51.5
JPMorgan Private Client --- 52.0
Landesbank BW -16.5% 51.0
Lehman Brothers -16.4% 49.0
Lloyds TSB -14.8% 50.5
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc --- 50.0
Merk Investments --- 49.2
Merrill Lynch --- 48.0
MFC Global Investment Man --- 49.5
Moody's Economy.com --- 51.0
Morgan Stanley & Co. --- 54.0
National Bank Financial --- 49.5
National City Corporation --- 52.9
Natixis -16.0% 49.8
Nord/LB --- 49.0
Okasan Securities -15.8% ---
RBS Greenwich Capital --- 49.0
Ried, Thunberg & Co. --- 53.0
Schneider Trading Associa --- 48.0
Scotia Capital -16.0% 49.0
Societe Generale --- 52.0
Standard Chartered --- 49.5
Stone & McCarthy Research --- 49.0
TD Securities -17.0% 50.0
Thomson Financial/IFR --- 51.0
UBS Securities LLC --- 53.0
Unicredit MIB -16.5% 50.4
University of Maryland -16.1% 50.1
Wachovia Corp. --- 49.3
Wells Fargo & Co. --- 50.4
WestLB AG -16.0% 50.0
Westpac Banking Co. -17.0% 51.0
Wrightson Associates --- 50.0
============================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.netCourtney Schlisserman in Washington at cschlisserma@bloomberg.net
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