Economic Calendar

Monday, July 7, 2008

Medvedev May Repair Frayed Ties, Seek Economic Influence at G-8

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By Henry Meyer

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, joining his first summit of world leaders today, likely will try to repair ties frayed by predecessor Vladimir Putin's confrontational tactics.

``Medvedev is playing the role of a good cop after Putin to improve Russia's image in the West,'' said Yevgeny Volk, an analyst in Moscow for the Washington-based Heritage Foundation. ``He's a polite person, an educated and intelligent guy.''


The new president will use his softer touch to push for greater weight in the global financial system. In doing so, he will open a new front in a campaign for influence begun by Putin, who mainly focused on expanding Russia's geopolitical clout.

``Russia today is a global player,'' Medvedev told an investment forum in St. Petersburg in May. ``We must recognize its responsibility for the destiny of the world and we want to participate in shaping the new rules of the game.''

Fundamental disagreements remain between the East and West, and there is little chance the new president will resolve them at this week's summit of the Group of Eight industrialized nations in Hokkaido, Japan.

Russia, the world's biggest energy exporter, is challenging the U.S. and its European allies on a range of fronts. It opposes NATO's eastward expansion, Kosovo's independence and U.S. plans for a missile-defense system in former Soviet satellite states.

Medvedev, Putin's handpicked successor, has avoided the former president's aggressive tone since his May 7 inauguration. During his eight years as president, Putin threatened to point nuclear missiles at U.S. allies in eastern Europe.

`Frightening Monster'

Now that he has established a new center of power as prime minister, Putin has continued railing against the U.S. In a Le Monde interview on May 30, the 55-year-old former KGB colonel called the country a ``frightening monster.''

Medvedev, a 42-year-old lawyer, already has made strides toward mending relations. He earned positive reviews from European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso, 52, after meeting European leaders in Siberia last month. They began talks on an agreement defining all future cooperation between the two sides.

``I hope to have very good working and, if possible, personal relations with President Medvedev,'' Barroso said.

In Japan, the Russian president plans to meet President George W. Bush today for the first time as leaders at 11:30 a.m. The two met in April while Medvedev was president-elect.

Meeting Brown

Medvedev also will hold talks with U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, the first encounter between the two countries' leaders since the 2006 radiation-poisoning murder in London of dissident ex-KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko. Russian authorities refused to extradite a former KGB bodyguard wanted for the crime, sending bilateral ties to a post-Cold War low.

The talks will be a ``step forward,'' Medvedev aide Arkady Dvorkovich said July 3.

The two leaders likely will discuss BP Plc's battle with a group of Russian billionaires for control of TNK-BP, a joint oil-production venture. London-based BP and the Russians each have a 50 percent stake in the company, which provides a quarter of BP's total output and a fifth of its proved reserves.

BP is resisting efforts by the Russians to replace management. The case has prompted warnings from the U.K. and the European Union that the row may damage foreigners' confidence in the security of investing in Russia.

On financial issues, Medvedev wants to translate Russia's economic might into greater influence. Russia has more than $500 billion of currency reserves and is the G-8's fastest-growing economy.

Seeking Balance

The world's financial structure ``should be based on a balance between leading economies,'' Medvedev told reporters from G-8 nations in an interview released July 3.

Medvedev said in the same interview the global financial crisis showed that no single country or currency can guarantee stability. The Russian ruble should become one of the world's reserve currencies, he said.

``The West shaped most of the global financial and economic architecture in its own interests,'' Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said June 20. ``Now, with the rapidly growing emerging economies of China, Russia, India and Brazil experiencing a burst in their financial and economic potential, this system's inadequacy is becoming clear.''

Russia's past attempts for a greater say in such matters have been thwarted. Last year, it proposed former Czech prime minister and central bank Governor Josef Tosovsky to head the International Monetary Fund, a post the EU traditionally selects. The EU's candidate, former French Finance Minister Dominique Strauss-Kahn, won the post.

``Russia sees the current balance of forces as transitional,'' said Fyodor Lukyanov, an analyst at the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy in Moscow. ``It is readying itself for a new world order.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Meyer in Toyako, Japan through the Moscow newsroom at hmeyer4@bloomberg.net


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