FX Technical Analysis

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by Mizuho Corporate Bank | Aug 21 08 06:18 GMT |

EURUSD

Comment: Going precisely nowhere after the dramatic collapse of the previous fortnight. US dollar bulls will no doubt describe this as much-needed consolidation although privately they may be disappointed to have seen no downside follow-through. Our view, and we are one of less than a handful still holding out, is that the Euro is trying to form a slow interim base against long term retracement support. For today we ought to hold above 1.4675 again, probably with another cautious upside probe to 1.4800/1.4850.

Strategy: Attempt small longs at 1.4780, adding to 1.4685; stop below 1.4600. Short term target 1.4800 and then 1.5000.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.4732 1.4807
1.4672 1.4860
1.4645 1.4915
1.4630* 1.4980/1.5000**
1.4600 1.5084
GBPUSD

Comment: Holding in a surprisingly neat and narrow range. Don't expect this to last much longer. Very good volume in the futures with low open interest suggests a lot of day-trading. Over the next fortnight we expect a messy attempt at basing followed by a bounce to 1.9000.

Strategy: Strategy remains unchanged: attempt longs at 1.8635; stop below 1.8500. Short term target 1.8700, then 1.8800.

Direction of Trade: →

Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
1.8610 1.8688
1.8538 1.8723
1.8510* 1.8800*
1.8400 1.8900
1.8300 1.9035/1.9050*
USDJPY

Comment: Gathering a tiny amount of downside pressure as prices break below the lower edge of an upward-sloping 'wedge' formation. A daily close below 109.25 might add more bearish momentum for a sudden slide to the 108.00 area.

Strategy: Sell at 109.05, adding to 110.25; stop above 110.75. Short term target 108.55, then 108.00.

Direction of Trade: →↘

Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
108.97 109.65
108.57 110.28
108.35* 110.55/110.67*
108.00 111.00
107.85 111.50
EUR/JPY

Comment: Re-testing recent lows, here and in a whole series of other Yen crosses. The Euro is oversold against the Yen but this is unlikely to hold things back for long. Late this week or late this month we expect a drop to 158.00, and further out a slide to 152.00. Below here and the long term picture gets seriously interesting.

Strategy: Sell at 161.30, adding to 162.20; stop above 163.35. Short term target 161.00/160.60, then 158.00.

Direction of Trade: →↘

Chart Levels:
Support Resistance
161.14 162.20
160.86* 162.65
160.60 163.12
160.00 163.85/164.00*
159.60* 164.50*

Mizuho Corporate Bank

Disclaimer

The information contained in this paper is based on or derived from information generally available to the public from sources believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty is made or implied that it is accurate or complete. Any opinions expressed in this paper are subject to change without notice. This paper has been prepared solely for information purposes and if so decided, for private circulation and does not constitute any solicitation to buy or sell any instrument, or to engage in any trading strategy.