TMT's Nobu Su Says Oil-Tanker Rates Will Triple Over the Winter

By Alaric Nightingale

Aug. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Nobu Su, a shipping investor who predicted oil-tanker rates would double six months ago, said he expects rental costs to advance threefold by the first quarter of next year as energy prices gain on political instability.

With a fleet of 20 very large crude carriers, or VLCCs, Su is now the third-largest operator in the single-voyage, or spot, market, behind Frontline Ltd. and Tankers International Ltd. Su, chief executive officer of TMT Co. Ltd., said in February the cost of hiring a VLCC would gain because ships were traveling farther.

``Winter will be very strong,'' Su said in an interview in London yesterday. Political instability will cause oil prices to strengthen, increasing demand for tankers from refineries seeking to secure supply, he said.

The cost of shipping Saudi Arabian crude oil to Japan, the industry benchmark, doubled to 244.53 Worldscale points on July 1 from 122.19 points when Su made his prediction. Rental income since then has dropped 80 percent to $29,279 a day, on signs that higher oil prices are reducing consumption.

Chinese crude-oil imports fell to their lowest this year, curbing demand for shipping, as high prices discouraged refineries from buying cargoes, the nation's Customs General Administration said on its Web site yesterday.

In the U.S., gasoline consumption has fallen for 15 weeks, according to an Aug. 5 MasterCard survey. At least 24 airlines filed for bankruptcy or stopped flying because of fuel costs.

Crude oil traded in New York has declined about 22 percent since reaching a record $147.27 a barrel on July 11.

Sailing Slower

Shipowners are responding to the slump by telling captains to sail their tankers more slowly, three shipbrokers said Aug. 5. The last time that happened, in the final quarter of 2007, the market posted its biggest two-month gain in rates for at least 16 years in November and December.

Su, 49 and known in the industry as ``Elephant Man'' because some of his vessels' names end with ``Elephant,'' made $1 billion in 2006 betting coal and iron-ore shipping costs would gain, according to TradeWinds newspaper.

Worldscale points are a percentage of a nominal rate, or flat rate, for more than 320,000 specific routes. Flat rates for every voyage, quoted in U.S. dollars a ton, are revised annually by the Worldscale Association in London to reflect changing fuel costs, port tariffs and exchange rates.

Each flat rate assessment gives owners and oil companies a starting point for negotiating hire rates without having to calculate the value of each deal from scratch.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alaric Nightingale in London at Anightingal1@bloomberg.net