Economic Calendar

Monday, September 22, 2008

Currency Technical Report

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Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX Greece | Sep 22 08 09:52 GMT |

EUR/USD

Resistance : 1,4500/ 1,4530/ 1,4560-70/ 1,4610/ 1,4650/ 1,4700/ 1,4730
Support : 1,4430-40/ 1,4400/ 1,4350-60/ 1,4300/ 1,4270-90

Comment: A week of high volatility has passed, as the market tried to evaluate the important economic developments in the US economy. Our opinion is that these developments could only be negative for the dollar in the mid-term, and according to our basic scenario a reach of 1,4650-00 or even 1,4950-00 area is possible…

Technically, a sideways consolidation is being formed between 1,4150-00 and 1,4500-50, which could be possibly used as a base for the move mentioned above. We cannot be sure if this formation has been completed, as it is possible that the price will remain below 1,4530-50 for a longer period of time.

First support is found at 1,4430, but more important is the area of 1,4350-60 and 1,4270-90. The base of 1,4150 sets the ranges for the sideways consolidation.

The positive scenario will be confirmed if euro remains above 1,4300 in the retracements and we see a clear break of 1,4550. In that case, targets will be at 1,4700 and 1,4900 area…

TRADING EUR/USD

SWING TRADING : Our scenario regarding the longer term is the same. A reach of 1,4700 or 1,4900 is necessary to complete the reaction from 1,3900… During the rise, a gradually profit taking is possible….

INTRADAY TRADING : Sell positions will be tried at 1,4520-40, with target at 1,4430-40 and stops above 1,4560. Small buy positions can be tried at 1,4440, with target at 1,4500-10 and stop below 1,4400. Most buy orders should be placed at 1,4350-60, adding more at 1,4280 and stops below 1,4250.

GBP/USD

Resistance : 1,8330/ 1,8360/ 1,8380-00/ 1,8430/ 1,8455/ 1,8485-90/ 1,8520-30
Support : 1,8250/ 1,8230/ 1,8190/ 1,8155-60/ 1,8120-30

Comment: The low of the sharp decline was formed at 1,7500-7600 area. As you can see in the weekly chart, the lower part of the basic long-term channel was reached at these levels. The formation of a reversal candle in the weekly chart, indicated that the area of 1,8500 is a possible target, where the 38,2% retracement level and the base before 1,7500 lows is found..
Important support is found at 1,8250-60 area today, and if it is breached, our targets will be at 1,8480-8530 area.
A clear break of 1,8250 will indicate that 1,8130-50 area may be breached before any upward move. Our ranges for the decline would be set there…

TRADING GBP/USD : We will try buy orders at the retracements towards 1,8260-80, with stops below 1,8230 and target at 1,8480-00. Buy orders could also be tried in case of an upward break of 1,8400, with the same targets. Sell positions could be tried at 1,8480 and 1,8530, with stops above 1,8560 and target at 1,8400…

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