The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Sep 22 08 05:17 GMT |

Price: 106.78 Bias: While 106.00 supports (small risk of 105.50-80) I look for a move to 108.32-53 before correcting lower Daily Bullish The break back above 106.60 indeed took price strongly higher and briefly surpassed the 107.93 high and still looks seet to reach 108.32 and at most 108.53. First thing today I see potential for a drift lower to 106.00. I feel this will hold but take care as there is a possible alternative that would extend losses to 105.50-80 before the rally. However, once this correction is complete I'll look for a move through to the 108.32 target (max 108.53) from where a further correction is likely. Next resistance is then found at 108.96 and 109.53. Medium Term Bullish 19th September: This morning's rally gives me some encouragment for the upside. A break above 106.60 will confirm a move to 108.32 and probably 109.53 en route the 110.65 high Daily Bearish While I feel we shall see chances for the downside today I don't think it will be direct. This morning has already seen a drift lower to 106.38 and while 106.90-107.25 caps we should see the downside edge even lower to my favored support at 106.00. Take care here as a move higher is then possible. Only below 106.00 extends losses to 105.50-80 before the bounce higher. A later rally to 108.32-53 should also provide a selling opportunity for a deeper correction lower - but this shouldn't move below 106.00. Med term 22nd September: Friday's strength argues against the downside. Only a move below 105.50 would raise the prospect again and allow a second decline back to the 103.53 area en route much lower Resistance 109.53 108.96 108.32-53 108.02 107.70 107.25 Support 106.34 106.00 105.50-79 105.24 105.02 104.59 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish consolidation RSI High-neutral Long Term Cycles and Momentum Monthly cycles appear to have found a major high at 169.95 and should set the scene for some long term losses. However, the decline has been aggressive and should be close to finding a medium low for a correction higher. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Mixed Bullish divergence Weekly Lower Low-neutral Monthly Lower Oversold ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 19th September: The recovery from the 103.97 low has been impressive and certainly lends more support to the bullish structure. Within this rally I see a small 76.4% projection in minor Wave v at 106.59 and this would likely provide Wave a of Wave iii. A 50% correction will come in around 105.22 but give some leeway around this depending on where the current rally fails. 105.02-22 looks the most likely stalling point. As we go into next week this will imply follow-through in Wave iii in a 138.2% projection at 108.32 and more likely a 176.4% projection at 109.53. In the larger picture this will imply that the 103.53 low was actually the end of an expanded flat correction in Wave (x) and thus there is room for one final ABC pattern higher. The alternative to keep in mind is a sideways consolidation. Normally the most likely stalling area for this was at 106.07. If it has merely extended that leg of the recovery to 106.31 then we could still be seeing a triangle structure. In either bullish or bearish scenarios it will mean a drop through the 105.75 pivot support to the 66.7%-76.4% projection in Wave ^c which should occur around 103.97-104.35 to generate a further consolidation in Waves ^d and ^e. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.