Canadian Dollar Falls to Four-Year Low on Economic Outlook, Oil

By Chris Fournier

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Canada's currency fell to the lowest since September 2004 on speculation the global economic slump will deepen and crude oil prices will decline further.

The loonie, as the currency is known because of the aquatic bird on the one-dollar coin, is poised for a fourth straight weekly decline, the longest losing streak in almost a year. Canada's dollar has weakened 16 percent so far this month, the worst performance since at least 1971 when Bloomberg records begin. Crude accounts for one-tenth of Canada's export revenue.

``There are so many things happening, between commodity prices and absolute market panic on the equity side,'' said Eric Lascelles, chief economics strategist at TD Securities Inc. in Toronto. ``There are some pretty big drivers out there right now, including rampant pessimism and flight-to-safety flows.''

Canada's dollar declined as much as 2.9 percent to C$1.2842 per U.S. dollar, from C$1.2472 yesterday, the lowest since Sept. 23, 2004. It traded at C$1.2722 at 8:02 a.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 78.61 U.S. cents. The currency is down 7.1 percent this week.

Crude oil dropped as much as $4.99, or 7.4 percent, to $62.85 a barrel. Crude reached a record $147.27 on July 11. Since then, the loonie has lost 21 percent.

The MSCI World Index lost 3.5 percent to 878.96, extending this week's retreat to 7.6 percent.

Consumer prices rose 3.4 percent from September 2007 after a 3.5 percent annual increase through August, Statistics Canada reported today in Ottawa. The median forecast of 20 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News was for annual inflation of 3.3 percent.

The yield on the two-year government bond fell 11 basis points, or 0.11 percentage point, to 2.01 percent. The price of the 2.75 percent security due in December 2010 rose 22 cents to C$101.52.

The yield on the 10-year Government of Canada bond fell 6 basis points to 3.56 percent. The price of the 4.25 percent security maturing in June 2018 added 51 cents to C$105.60.

To contact the reporter on this story: Chris Fournier in Montreal at cfournier3@bloomberg.net