Oil May Fall Amid Doubts OPEC Can Bolster Prices, Survey Shows

By Mark Shenk

Oct. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil may decline next week on signs OPEC output cuts may be insufficient to support prices because of the global financial crisis.

Eleven of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News, or 41 percent, said prices will decrease through Oct. 31. Eight respondents, or 30 percent, said oil will rise and eight forecast little change. Last week 39 percent expected futures to decline.

Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries have a ``consensus'' on cutting supply and will decide the amount today, Venezuelan Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez told reporters yesterday in Vienna. OPEC is concerned that slowing economies will consume less fuel, sending prices lower.

There's ``no reason to think any bottom, even a temporary one, is at hand,'' said Ric Navy, a broker at BNP Paribas SA in New York. The ``OPEC meeting may keep sellers a tad nervous, but they will find their convictions and sell again.''

Crude oil for December delivery fell $4.29, or 5.9 percent, to $67.84 a barrel so far this week on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Futures touched $65.90 a barrel yesterday, the lowest intraday price since June 13, 2007. Prices have dropped 54 percent from the record $147.27 a barrel reached on July 11.

The oil survey has correctly predicted the direction of futures 50 percent of the time since its start in April 2004.

     Bloomberg's survey of oil analysts and traders, conducted
each Thursday, asks for an assessment of whether crude oil
futures are likely to rise, fall or remain neutral in the coming
week. The results were:

                   RISE      NEUTRAL    FALL
                    8           8        11

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.