The Daily Forecaster: USDJPY

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Oct 22 08 03:51 GMT |

Price: 100.28 Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks Daily Bullish The break below 101.44 has caused an alternative pattern (sideways consolidation?) although I can't rule out a stronger rally. I feel there is a strong risk we have seen a small low at 99.96 which should provide a pullback higher. A move above the 100.55 peaks will assist but we may fiind the 100.84 corrective peak hard to overcome. At the most I suspect the 101.10 area should cap.If this surprises with a break then look for follow-through to the 101.40 pivot resistance and once this breaks it implies extension to 101.84 and 102.10-39. Medium Term Bullish 22nd October: The 103.48 target looks less likely now and we'll need a break back above 101.84-101.10 to provide evidence for a second move higher to 102.39 again. Only breach opens up the 103.48 resistance. Daily Bearish Breach of 101.34 has generated follow-through lower but this has been less aggressive than expected. To retain the downward momentum we require the 101.10 area to cap - though watch the lower 100.84 corrective peak also. While this area remains intact there is still downside risk for a move below 99.79-96 for 99.10-25. Take a little care in this support range. Only breach would extend to 98.60 while break there should see a move close to the 97.89 low. Medium Term Bearish 20th October: On review I still see this move higher as corrective and while the 103.50 Fibonacci and pivot resistance holds around 103.50 (max 104.27-44) we should see a final decline to the 95.71 area in 1-2 weeks and from there I expect a larger reversal higher. Resistance 102.39 101.84 101.40 101.10 100.84 100.55 Support 99.96 99.60 99.10-25 98.63 97.89 97.14 ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bearish consolidation RSI Low-neutral Long Term Cycles and Momentum Daily & weekly cycles took a knock in October last year and while the long term outlook is still bearish into the end of next year. Recently the cyclic picture has been deteriorating but we need a break below 103.51 to see stronger losses. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Lower for 5 - 10 days Oversold Weekly Lower Oversold Monthly Lower Oversold 22nd October: Loss of 101.44 has caused steady losses but not really in line with a stronger negative pattern. I wonder whether we are seeing a triangle in Wave -iv- or merely a more complex correction before a second attempt higher towards the 50% retracement in Wave (iv) at 103.48... For the moment it will probably be better to retain a bearish stance and this should see a 50% retracement in a minor Wave iv correction to 100.84-101.10. This range is given since there is a risk that we may see a small dip to 99.79 before the correction develops. Any prior 99.79 would highlight the 99.25 low and a minor 76.4% retracement of the 97.89-103.05 rally at 99.10. To maintain losses we shall need to see this break which would then cause a retest of the 97.89 low. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.