Economic Calendar

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Wakeup Call: GBP Collapsing On Mervyn King Comments

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Daily Forex Fundamentals | Written by Saxo Bank | Oct 22 08 07:04 GMT |

Stocks continue to edge lower. Precious metals and commodities also under pressure.

Calendar

Economic Data Releases
Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment
UK Bank of England Minutes 08:30


EC E-Z Budget deficit/GDP Ratio (DEC) 09:00 -0.6% -0.6%
US DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (OCT) 14:35 2650K 5611K
Earnings Releases
Country Name Time (GMT) Expectation Prior Comment
UK GlaxoSmithKline 12:00 0,238

US AT&T 12:00 0,71

US Amazon.com Aft-Mkt 0,327

What's going on?

Sarkozy in a dirigist frenzy talked about setting up Sovereign Wealth Funds to buy big companies of national importance. His talk about a return to 'financial disciplin' - meaning a Bretton Woods like set-up - is also extremely discomforting.

The Fed is stating that it wants to lend $540B to money-market funds troubled by investor withdrawals.

BoE's Mervyn King was extremely bearish yesterday, sees risk of sharp and prolonged demand slowdown.

Hedge Funds have posted record losses in September and they are also under intense pressure from redemptions. Assets closely related to hedgefund performance will be under continued pressure. Our estimates show that this is the case for EURUSD, Stocks (MSCI/S&P500), Gold, Crude Oil and to a certain extent Treasuries. They should all be edging lower towards year-end.

FX

FX Daily stance Comment
EURUSD - Bearish tone confirmed with move through 1.3000 (now resistance). Target still 1.26-1.27 window
EURJPY - More downside until we reach 125.85 2003 low
USDJPY - Nothing good coming out of UK. Sell into rallies, res now 1.6500
GBPUSD 0 Heavy EURJPY selling keeping USDJPY pinned down. Ranging 99.50-100.50
USDCHF + The broader bullish USD keeps 1.1900 target on cue. 1.1500 now supports

Equities

Equities Daily stance Comment
DAX - Buy on rally at 4640, target 4700. S/L: 4618.
FTSE100 - Buy at 4115, target 4205. S/L: 4056.
S&P500 - Buy at 924, target 966. S/L: 912.
NASDAQ -
NIKKEI225 -

Futures

Commodities Daily Stance Comment
Gold (XAUUSD) - Prefer the downside. Target 737 with stop above 773.
Silver (XAGUSD) - Sell rallies with stops above 10.27. USD strength still the theme.
Oil (WBSX8) - Sell the break of 68.92 with stops above 72. General unwinding still hurting energy.

Saxobank

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