By Bob Willis
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Sales at U.S. retailers probably decreased in September as mounting job losses, plunging home prices and the deepening credit crisis rattled consumers, economists said before reports today.
Purchases fell 0.7 percent, the most in more than a year, after dropping 0.3 percent in August, according to the median of 75 estimates in a Bloomberg survey. Producers probably cut prices for a second consecutive month in September, reflecting declining commodity costs, another report may show.
The biggest decline in stock prices in at least seven decades last week may further undermine already shaky consumer confidence, prompting cutbacks on non-essentials like new cars and vacations that will deepen the economic slump. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg this month forecast consumer spending in the third quarter fell for the first time since 1991.
``Firms and consumers will likely postpone projects and large purchases until they better understand the implications of the current situation,'' said Christian Broda, an economist at Barclays Capital in New York. ``Business and consumer paralysis is today's main risk.''
The Commerce Department's report on retail sales is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Sales excluding autos probably fell 0.2 percent after a 0.7 percent decline the prior month, economists forecast.
A drop would extend declines in retail sales to three consecutive months, the first time that's happened since comparable records began in 1992.
Wholesale Prices
The Labor Department may report at the same time that prices paid to manufacturers fell 0.4 percent in September after a 0.9 percent decline the prior month, according to economists surveyed.
Other reports may show inventories at U.S. businesses in August grew as sales fell, and manufacturing contracted this month in the New York region at the fastest pace since March.
Expensive items like automobiles saw the biggest decline in demand last month. Cars and light trucks sold at a 12.5 million annual pace in September, the fewest since 1993, according to industry figures issued earlier this month.
A decrease in service-station receipts, reflecting a 5- cent-a-gallon drop in the average cost of gasoline, probably contributed to the decline, economists said.
Consumer spending probably fell at an annual rate of 2 percent in the third quarter, bringing to a halt a record expansion that lasted almost 17 years, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed in the first week of October. Purchases will probably drop at a 0.9 percent pace this quarter and be unchanged in the first three months of 2009, the projections also showed.
GDP Forecast
A 0.2 percent drop in gross domestic product at an annual pace last quarter will be followed by a 0.8 percent decline in the last three months of 2008, signaling the first U.S. recession since 2001, according to the forecasts.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average posted the biggest weekly slide on record last week and the Standard & Poor's 500 Index had its worst since 1933. Equities have recovered some of that lost ground so far this week.
Even online retailer EBay Inc., which has almost doubled its staff since 2005, is bracing for a downturn. It plans to slash 10 percent of its workforce, about 1,600 positions, as sales slow and competition intensifies.
``There's no doubt these are challenging times for consumers, both in the U.S. and in economies around the world,'' Chief Executive Officer John Donahoe said Oct. 6. ``It will be a challenging holiday season,'' he said.
Moving to shore up credit markets, the Federal Reserve on Oct. 8 in conjunction with other central banks announced a surprise half-point cut in its target rate, to 1.5 percent.
``Recent intensification of the financial crisis has augmented the downside risks to growth,'' the Fed said.
Bloomberg Survey
================================================================
PPI Core Retail Retail
PPI Sales ex-autos
MOM% MOM% MOM% MOM%
================================================================
Date of Release 10/15 10/15 10/15 10/15
Observation Period Sept. Sept. Sept. Sept.
----------------------------------------------------------------
Median -0.4% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
Average -0.5% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
High Forecast 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7%
Low Forecast -1.5% 0.0% -1.5% -0.8%
Number of Participants 73 70 75 71
Previous -0.9% 0.2% -0.3% -0.7%
----------------------------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -0.4% 0.2% -0.6% -0.3%
Action Economics -0.3% 0.1% -0.6% -0.3%
Aletti Gestielle SGR -0.6% 0.2% -1.1% -0.3%
Allianz Dresdner Economic --- --- -0.5% 0.6%
Argus Research Corp. -0.4% 0.2% -0.6% -0.3%
Banc of America Securitie -0.1% 0.2% -0.9% -0.3%
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -0.7% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
Bantleon Bank AG -0.6% --- -0.6% -0.3%
Barclays Capital -0.6% 0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
BMO Capital Markets -0.4% 0.1% -0.7% -0.3%
BNP Paribas -0.4% 0.2% -1.0% -0.3%
Briefing.com -0.3% 0.1% -0.3% 0.1%
Calyon -0.4% 0.2% -0.8% -0.2%
CFC Group --- --- -0.6% 0.3%
CIBC World Markets -1.0% 0.2% -0.9% -0.3%
Citi -0.2% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
ClearView Economics -0.7% 0.0% -1.5% 0.7%
Commerzbank AG -0.2% 0.2% -1.0% -0.4%
Credit Suisse -0.7% 0.2% -1.3% -0.6%
Daiwa Securities America 0.1% 0.2% -0.5% -0.3%
Danske Bank -0.2% 0.2% -0.8% -0.3%
DekaBank -0.5% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
Desjardins Group 0.1% 0.2% -0.6% 0.1%
Deutsche Bank Securities -0.5% 0.3% -0.7% -0.3%
Deutsche Postbank AG -0.4% 0.2% -0.6% -0.2%
Dresdner Kleinwort -0.5% 0.2% -0.5% 0.1%
DZ Bank -0.2% 0.2% -0.5% -0.1%
First Trust Advisors -0.8% 0.2% -0.8% -0.4%
Fortis -0.5% 0.2% --- ---
FTN Financial -0.5% 0.1% -0.7% -0.2%
Global Insight Inc. -0.7% 0.3% -1.3% -0.7%
Goldman, Sachs & Co. -0.1% 0.3% -0.6% -0.1%
H&R Block Financial Advis -0.5% 0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
Helaba -0.5% 0.1% -1.2% -0.7%
High Frequency Economics -1.5% 0.2% -0.1% -0.1%
Horizon Investments -0.2% 0.2% -1.3% -0.6%
HSBC Markets -0.7% 0.2% -1.0% -0.3%
IDEAglobal -0.4% 0.2% -0.3% -0.2%
ING Financial Markets -0.6% --- -0.8% ---
Insight Economics -0.2% 0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
Intesa-SanPaulo -0.4% 0.2% -0.6% -0.2%
J.P. Morgan Chase -0.3% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
Janney Montgomery Scott L -0.5% 0.2% -1.1% -0.7%
Landesbank Berlin -0.1% 0.1% -1.1% -0.6%
Landesbank BW -0.5% --- -0.7% ---
Lloyds TSB -0.3% 0.2% -0.3% 0.2%
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc -0.6% 0.1% -0.6% -0.2%
Merk Investments -0.4% 0.2% -0.6% -0.2%
Merrill Lynch -0.8% 0.2% -0.8% -0.2%
MFC Global Investment Man -0.6% 0.0% -0.9% -0.5%
Moody's Economy.com -0.1% 0.3% -0.9% -0.4%
Morgan Stanley & Co. -0.6% 0.1% -0.4% 0.0%
National City Corporation -0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
Natixis -1.0% 0.2% -1.2% -0.5%
Newedge -0.5% 0.2% -0.6% -0.2%
Nomura Securities Intl. -0.2% 0.1% -0.6% -0.3%
Nord/LB -0.6% 0.2% -0.5% 0.2%
PNC Bank -1.2% 0.2% -0.5% -0.2%
RBS Greenwich Capital -0.9% 0.2% -0.8% -0.1%
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -0.2% 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
Schneider Trading Associa -0.1% 0.3% -0.3% -0.4%
Scotia Capital -0.6% 0.2% -0.7% -0.3%
Societe Generale -0.5% 0.2% -0.2% 0.2%
Standard Chartered --- --- -0.4% -0.8%
Stone & McCarthy Research -1.5% 0.1% -0.3% -0.1%
TD Securities -0.5% 0.1% -0.8% -0.1%
Thomson Financial/IFR -1.0% 0.0% -0.5% -0.2%
Tullett Prebon -0.4% 0.2% -0.7% ---
UBS Securities LLC -0.4% 0.2% -0.7% -0.2%
Unicredit MIB -0.4% 0.2% 0.1% ---
University of Maryland 0.2% 0.2% -1.2% 0.0%
Wachovia Corp. 0.2% 0.1% -0.4% 0.0%
Wells Fargo & Co. -0.3% 0.1% -0.6% -0.3%
WestLB AG -0.5% 0.2% -0.5% -0.2%
Westpac Banking Co. -0.4% 0.1% -1.0% 0.0%
Wrightson Associates -0.2% 0.3% -0.4% -0.1%
================================================================
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment