Economic Calendar

Thursday, November 13, 2008

Copper falls to 3-yr low on weak demand outlook

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* Copper hits 3-year low on weak demand outlook

* Stronger dollar, weaker equity markets add pressure

* China's October copper and nickel output plunge

(Adds fresh comment/details, changes dateline PVS MANILA)

By Julie Crust

LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Copper fell to a three-year low on Thursday on demand concerns as data showed China's output of the industrial metal fell last month as producers responded to the global slowdown.

The metal was also pressured by the stronger dollar, which makes metals more expensive for holders of other currencies, weaker equity markets and oil prices falling to a 22-month low.

"All of the macro indicators are negative and there is no change expected going forward," said Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. "For the remainder of this year we are going to see new lows plumbed."

Three-month copper MCU3 on the London Metal Exchange dropped as low as $3,520 a tonne, its weakest price since September 2005. It was trading at $3,545 a tonne at 1040 GMT compared with $3,621 at the close on Wednesday.

Analysts doubt the drop in China's production of copper and other metals will lead to tighter supply at a time when demand for raw materials is weakening.

China said its output of the industrial metal dropped 8 percent on the year to an eight-month low in October as manufacturers cut production in response to weakening demand.

"That's not a surprise," said Judy Zhu, analyst at Standard Chartered Bank in Shanghai.

"We've heard production cuts by smelters lately and I don't think it's going to create tight supply in the international market because the smelters are just trying to keep their inventory in check."

China's production of refined copper fell to 293,900 tonnes in October, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Aluminium output dropped 0.9 percent, nickel fell 18 percent but zinc output rose 3.6 percent. [ID:nHKG339295]

Despite the cuts by producers, mostly Chinese smelters, stocks of copper in LME warehouses rose another 4,625 tonnes on Wednesday to 270,100 tonnes, their highest since March 2004.

Metal Prices at 1038 GMT Metal Last Change Pct Move End 2007 Ytd Pct

move LME Cu 3535.00 -86.00 -2.38 6670.00 -47.00 SHFE Cu* 29050.00 -190.00 -0.65 56880.00 -48.93 LME Alum 1902.00 -23.00 -1.19 2403.00 -20.85 SHFE Alu* 13630.00 -130.00 -0.94 18180.00 -25.03 COMEX Cu** 164.95 0.00 +0.00 303.05 -45.57 LME Zinc 1148.00 -2.00 -0.17 2370.00 -51.56 SHFE Zinc* 9565.00 95.00 +1.00 18950.00 -49.53 LME Nick 10375.00 -125.00 -1.19 26350.00 -60.63 LME Lead 1275.00 -25.00 -1.92 2550.00 -50.00 LME Tin 13350.00 -350.00 -2.55 16400.00 -18.60 ** 1st contract month for COMEX copper * 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07

(Reporting by Julie Crust; editing by Editing by Peter Blackburn)




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