By Timothy R. Homan
Nov. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. trade deficit probably narrowed in September as retreating oil prices reduced the value of imports, economists said before a report today.
The gap shrank to $57 billion, the smallest in six months, from $59.1 billion in August, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg News survey. A separate report may show the number of workers seeking jobless benefits continues to swell.
Demand for foreign crude oil, automobiles and televisions may keep falling as the global credit crunch causes American consumers and businesses to retrench. A narrowing trade gap is likely to remain one of the few bright spots, even as shrinking economies in Europe and Japan also cause U.S. exports to slump.
``The trade figures are among the few that are improving, as the U.S. recession drags down imports to a greater degree than the global downturn depresses U.S. exports,'' said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto.
The Commerce Department's report on trade is due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Estimates of the 71 economists surveyed ranged from deficits of $52.8 billion to $59 billion.
Also at 8:30 a.m., a report from the Labor Department may show 480,000 people filed initial applications for unemployment insurance last week, little changed from 481,000 a week earlier, according to the survey median. On average, 321,000 workers per week submitted claims last year.
The drop in fuel prices is probably the main reason the trade gap decreased in September, economists said. The cost of imported petroleum fell 9 percent and natural gas prices slumped 16 percent during the month, according to Labor Department figures.
Commodity Imports
Commodity prices have slumped even more since then, signaling the trade balance will continue to improve.
A drop-off in airplane deliveries by Boeing Co., reflecting the effects of an 8-week strike that was resolved Nov. 1, probably led to the second consecutive decline in American exports, economists said.
The world's second-largest maker of commercial aircraft delivered 6 planes to overseas buyers in September compared with 23 a month earlier.
The decline in demand for American-made goods is likely to broaden in coming months as markets in Europe and Asia contract.
The euro-zone economy will shrink 0.5 percent in 2009 and Japan will drop 0.2 percent, according to a revised forecast by the International Monetary Fund this month. Its global growth estimate for 2009 was scaled back to 2.2 percent from 3.7 percent this year.
Trade's Contribution
Trade has been one of the few bright spots in the U.S. economy over the past year. A narrower deficit prevented gross domestic product from contracting even more in the third quarter than the 0.3 percent annual pace reported by the Commerce Department on Oct. 30.
Still, the contribution to GDP for July through September was 1.1 percent, down from 2.9 percent the previous three months. A strengthening dollar is also increasing the cost of American-made goods abroad.
Some U.S. companies are expanding overseas to make up for the slump in domestic demand. Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of bulldozers and excavators, said last month that third-quarter international sales grew seven times as fast as North American revenue, helped by a 33 percent boost in spending on residential construction projects in China.
``Growth will hit a bump as a result of the recession, but it's not going to stop the world's need for infrastructure,'' Jim Owens, chief executive officer of the Peoria, Illinois- based company, said in an Oct. 21 conference call.
Bloomberg Survey
==============================================
Trade Initial
Balance Claims
$ Blns ,000's
==============================================
Date of Release 11/13 11/13
Observation Period Sept. Nov. 8
----------------------------------------------
Median -57.0 480
Average -56.6 481
High Forecast -52.8 500
Low Forecast -59.0 465
Number of Participants 71 40
Previous -59.1 481
----------------------------------------------
4CAST Ltd. -55.0 485
Action Economics -57.0 475
Aletti Gestielle SGR -55.0 490
Ameriprise Financial Inc -56.5 485
Argus Research Corp. -58.0 ---
Banc of America Securitie -54.0 ---
Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi -56.6 480
Barclays Capital -58.5 485
BMO Capital Markets -56.2 485
BNP Paribas -56.0 490
Briefing.com -56.0 475
Calyon -57.8 ---
CIBC World Markets -55.0 ---
Citi -57.0 470
Commerzbank AG -56.5 500
Credit Suisse -57.5 475
Daiwa Securities America -59.0 ---
DekaBank -56.5 ---
Deutsche Bank Securities -55.5 485
Deutsche Postbank AG -57.0 ---
Dresdner Kleinwort -57.3 ---
DZ Bank -57.0 ---
First Trust Advisors -57.9 479
Fortis -54.0 ---
FTN Financial -58.0 ---
Goldman, Sachs & Co. -54.5 ---
Helaba -57.0 ---
Herrmann Forecasting -55.7 488
High Frequency Economics -58.0 490
Horizon Investments -56.0 ---
HSBC Markets -57.5 480
IDEAglobal -57.0 475
IHS Global Insight -57.0 ---
Informa Global Markets -56.1 490
ING Financial Markets -55.1 490
Insight Economics -57.0 475
Intesa-SanPaulo -57.0 ---
J.P. Morgan Chase -58.2 485
Janney Montgomery Scott L -58.0 ---
JPMorgan's Private Wealth -57.5 478
Landesbank Berlin -54.0 480
Landesbank BW -54.0 ---
Lloyds TSB -57.0 480
Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc -56.0 470
Merk Investments -57.0 485
Merrill Lynch -57.0 465
Moody's Economy.com -58.2 485
Morgan Keegan & Co. -56.0 ---
Morgan Stanley & Co. -56.0 ---
National Bank Financial -56.0 ---
National City Corporation -55.7 ---
Natixis -56.5 ---
Nomura Securities Intl. -56.8 ---
Nord/LB -58.0 475
PNC Bank -57.5 ---
RBS Greenwich Capital -56.8 ---
Ried, Thunberg & Co. -57.0 480
Schneider Trading Associa -54.6 473
Scotia Capital -57.5 485
Societe Generale -56.5 ---
Standard Chartered -57.1 ---
Stone & McCarthy Research -58.0 485
TD Securities -58.0 480
Thomson Financial/IFR -58.1 470
UBS Securities LLC -58.5 485
University of Maryland -52.8 ---
Wachovia Corp. -53.1 ---
Wells Fargo & Co. -57.0 475
WestLB AG -56.5 ---
Westpac Banking Co. -56.0 488
Wrightson Associates -57.0 480
==============================================
To contact the reporters on this story: Timothy R. Homan in Washington at thoman1@bloomberg.net
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