Economic Calendar

Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Brazil, Argentina, Mexico: Latin America Bond, Currency Preview

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By Drew Benson

Dec. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The following events and economic reports may influence trading in Latin American local bonds and currencies today. Bond yields and exchange rates are from the previous day’s session.

Brazil: Economic growth unexpectedly accelerated in the third quarter to the fastest pace in four years, cementing expectations the central bank will leave interest rates on hold for a second straight meeting today.

Gross domestic product jumped 6.8 percent from a year earlier, more than any of the 31 economists in a Bloomberg survey expected, from a revised 6.2 percent increase in the previous three months, the national statistics agency said yesterday. Brazil’s central bank will leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 13.75 percent, according to 45 of 47 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The real rose 1.7 percent to 2.4717 per dollar.

The yield on the zero-coupon, real-denominated bond due in January 2010 climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 13.28 percent, according to Banco Votorantim.

Argentina: Argentine inflation probably slowed during November as consumers curbed spending amid the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.

The consumer price index rose 8.1 percent from a year earlier, compared with 8.4 percent in October, according to the median forecast of a Bloomberg survey of three economists. Argentina’s statistics agency is scheduled to release November inflation data at 1 p.m. New York time.

The peso rose 1.1 percent to 3.4315 per dollar.

The yield on the country’s inflation-linked peso bonds due in December 2033 fell 50 basis points, or 0.5 percentage point, to 18.655 percent, according to Citigroup Inc.’s local unit.

Mexico: Yields on Mexico’s two-year bond will fall 0.4 percentage point by the end of the first quarter after inflation peaks and the central bank considers reducing lending rates, according to TD Securities Ltd.’s Bartosz Pawlowski.

The yield on the 8 percent peso-denominated security due in December 2010 will decline to 7.25 percent by the end of March, from 7.65 percent, said Pawlowski, a London-based emerging-market strategist. It would be the lowest yield on the 2010 bond since January 2007, according to Banco Santander SA.

Rate cuts by the central bank designed to spur economic growth will help push up the peso to 12.5 per dollar by the end of next year, he said.

Mexico plans to repurchase as much as 18 billion pesos ($1.3 billion) of bonds due between five and 16 years. The government will hold the auction between 1:30 p.m. and 2 p.m. New York time.

The peso slid 0.9 percent to 13.5564 per dollar.

The yield on Mexico’s 10 percent bond due December 2024 rose three basis points to 8.581 percent, according to Banco Santander SA.

Other prices in Latin American markets:

Chile: The peso rose 1.1 percent to 666.47 per dollar.

The yield for a basket of five-year peso bonds in inflation- linked currency units, called unidades de fomento, was unchanged at 3.43 percent, according to Bloomberg composite prices.

Colombia: The peso rose 1.1 percent to 2,312.4 per dollar.

The yield on Colombia’s benchmark 11 percent bonds due in July 2020 declined 19 basis points to 11.69 percent, according to Colombia’s stock exchange.

Peru: The sol climbed 0.2 percent to 3.116 per dollar.

The yield on Peru’s 8.6 percent bond maturing August 2017 was unchanged at 7.95 percent, according to Citigroup’s local unit.

To contact the reporter on this story: Drew Benson in Buenos Aires at abenson9@bloomberg.net.



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