The Daily Forecaster: AUDUSD

Daily Forex Technicals | Written by FX-Forecaster | Dec 18 08 03:47 GMT |

Price: 0.7041 Bias: The short term is mixed but I still see the larger risk as higher Daily Bullish Gains were seen as expected to the 0.7038 target but also above to 0.7078. This does tend to argue for additional gains but the wave structure is not too clear. For this to develop directly we should ideally see the 0.6980-10 area support and also a break above 0.7082. If seen it should spur price higher to 0.7141 at least and then 0.7192. Take care in this broad 0.7141-92 area as a pullback is possible before it can rise to the next target at 0.7246. Medium Term Bullish 18th December: The 0.7038 target has been achieved and more and really this should now mean that we see a move to 0.7246 at least. Wait for break of 0.7082 first. Much larger resistance is at 0.7466. Daily Bearish Price broke above 0.7038 briefly and we are currently seeing a pullback. While not confirmed we should note that the hourly chart is showing a potential bearish divergence and this may lengthen the correction. For us to see any downward progress we shall require a break below 0.6980-10 which should then imply losses to 0.6920 at least. Below there would look for a deeper pullback to 0.6748-73 but should support. Next support is then found at 0.6680. Medium Term Bearish 18th December: I feel the greater risk is still directly higher but there is a minor chance that we see a correction to the 0.6748-73 area - max 0.6680. Only below this lower support suggests a total reversal. Resistance 0.7312 0.7204-46 0.7192 0.7141 0.7110 0.7082 Support 0.7010 0.6980 0.6962 0.6920 0.6860-82 0.6748-73 ELLIOTT WAVE COMMENTS 4-Hour Momentum Trailing Stop Bullish trend RSI Overbought Long Term Cycles and Momentum After much stronger losses than expected I feel the time has come for a correction higher at least… This should last into February/March at the very least. Cycles and Momentum Cycles Momentum Daily Higher Overbought Weekly Higher Oversold Monthly Lower Oversold 18th December: Yesterday's direct gains suggest we are in Wave -c- of Wave -iii- and a 176.4% projection in Wave -iii- lies at 0.7038 while a 176.4% projection in Wave -c- also lies at the same level. Thus I feel this should be tested at a minimum but then cause a correction lower. The wave equality projection in the larger Wave -c- lies at 0.7081 and the 138.2% projection at 0.7466. The problem I have here is that the lower level seems to close to 0.7038 while the 0.7466 target is too high for a Wave -v- to achieve. Thus I feel we must look at this with care. For now a cap at 0.7038 will provide a correction lower and only breach maintains a more aggressive rally to 0.7246 at least which is a the 176.4% projection in Wave -iii- . 18th December: The break above the 138.2% projection in Wave –iii- at 0.7038 does suggest that we should proceed to the next projection being 176.4% at 0.7246. The only concern I have is whether we’re seeing an impulsive move or a series of ABC moves in a correction. This latter case would allow a dip to the 0.6680-0.6748 area first. Ian Copsey FX-Forecaster Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure The Daily Forecaster is an analytical tool only and is not intended to replace individual research. The service is offered as an opinion on the current state of the market with anticipated trading signals but not recommendations. The information provided in The Daily Forecaster should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. Ian Copsey is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any view or opinion will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. The opinions are subject to change without notice. Opinions or views expressed in The Daily Forecaster are not meant to be either investment advice or a solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. Ian Copsey will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. The information contained is private and may not be distributed or shared.