Yen, Dollar Gain as Investors Seek Haven Amid Recession Concern

By Ye Xie and Anchalee Worrachate

Jan. 13 (Bloomberg) -- The yen and the dollar gained against the euro as speculation the global recession is deepening boosted the haven appeal of the two currencies.

The New Zealand&cls; dollar&cle; fell to a four-week low after Standard & Poor’s said it may cut the country’s foreign-currency credit rating. The euro weakened to a one-month low against the dollar as traders bet the European Central Bank will cut interest rates at least half percentage points. The pound fell as reports showed the U.K. economy slumped the most in two decades.

“The fresh optimism or risk appetite that we saw at the start of the year is fast fading, and people in the market are returning to buying the yen,” said Neil Jones, head of European hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in London. “Anti- carry or risk-aversion trades are being put back on again. There’s concern over 2009 global growth. There’s concern that corporate performance will be poor.”

The euro appreciated 0.2 percent to 119.02 yen at 8:38 a.m. in New York, from 119.19 yen yesterday. It earlier touched 117.71 yen, the strongest since Dec. 5. The yen’s seven-day gain matched the longest winning streak since the euro was introduced 10 years ago. The dollar advanced 0.7 percent to $1.3272, from $1.3362 yesterday, and touched $1.3222, the lowest level since Dec. 11.

New Zealand Dollar

The New Zealand dollar tumbled 3.8 percent to 55.46 U.S. cents, the biggest drop since October, after S&P revised its outlook for the South Pacific nation’s AA+ foreign-currency credit rating to “negative” from “stable.” The Australian dollar slid 2 percent to 66.80 U.S. cents after prices of oil and other commodities the country exports fell.

U.K’s pound declined 1.5 percent to $1.4596 after reports today showed home sales dropped the most since 1978 and retail sales had the worst December in 14 years. Against the euro, it declined 0.9 percent to 90.96 pence. The British Chambers of Commerce’s survey of almost 6,000 companies showed the economy is at its most fragile since it began issuing the report in 1989.

The yen gained 3.9 percent versus the New Zealand’s dollar and rose 2 percent versus the Swedish krona. It touched 87.14 per dollar on Dec. 17, the strongest level since 1995 on as investors sold high-yielding assets and buy back the low-cost Japanese currency.

Officials from major countries should intervene in the currency market to stop the yen from rising, Fujio Mitarai, chairman of Keidanren, Japan’s largest business lobby, told reporters today in Tokyo.

It would be better for Japan’s currency to move in a range of five yen above or below 100 to the dollar, said Mitarai, who is also chairman of Canon Inc.

Rate Outlook

The ECB has reduced interest rates only half as much as the Federal Reserve in the past six months. A Credit Suisse Group AG gauge of probability based on overnight index swaps indicated the ECB will lower its 2.5 percent main rate by at least 50 basis points this week, with odds of 7 percent that the cut will be deeper. The median forecast of 59 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News is for a 0.5 percentage-point reduction.

The Fed lowered its target lending rate in December to a range of zero to 0.25 percent, while the Bank of England lowered its main rate last week by a half-percentage point to 1.5 percent. U.S. central bank Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will give a speech on economic policy at 1 p.m. in London today.

“The ECB’s lagging behind the other global central banks in cutting rates and will certainly continue to exert downward pressure upon the euro,” Greg Salvaggio, vice president of capital markets in Washington at Tempus Consulting Inc., said in a Bloomberg Television interview. “We are very bullish on the dollar against the euro this year. We’re looking for a year-end target of $1.10.”

German Stimulus

Europe’s currency lost 6.9 percent against the yen, 5.3 percent against the dollar and 5.8 percent against the pound this year as reports showed services and manufacturing shrank in December by the most in at least a decade and inflation fell below the ECB’s ceiling of 2 percent for the first time since August 2007.

German coalition parties agreed yesterday on a package of measures including about 36 billion euros in infrastructure investment and lower taxes. It is the country’s second stimulus program in two months.

“The latest German stimulus package probably won’t be enough to turn back the tide of euro selling,” said Kengo Suzuki&cle&cls;;, currency strategist at Shinko Securities Co. in Tokyo. “It will take time for these measures to kick in, and other European countries will need to join Germany and announce similar policies.”

The euro may fall to $1.30 this week, he said.

To contact the reporters on this story: Anchalee Worrachate in London at aworrachate@bloomberg.net; Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net;